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kamui

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Everything posted by kamui

  1. The first polls give Obama an advantage: Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter By NATE SILVER Instant-reaction polls following Monday night’s debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner. A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 53 percent giving it to Mr. Obama, 23 percent to Mitt Romney and 24 percent declaring it a tie. Mr. Obama’s margin of victory in the poll was slightly wider than Mr. Romney’s following the first presidential debate in Denver, which a similar CBS News poll gave to Mr. Romney at 46 percent to 22 percent. Other polls, conducted among a broader group of voters rather than just undecided ones, suggested a smaller margin for the president. A Public Policy Polling survey of voters in 11 swing states who watched the debate found them giving it to Mr. Obama, 53 percent to 42 percent. A CNN poll of registered voters who watched the debate put Mr. Obama ahead, 48 percent to 40 percent. That was similar to Mr. Obama’s 46-39 margin in a CNN poll of the second debate, and much smaller than Mr. Romney’s 67-25 advantage in the first one. An online poll by Google Consumer surveys had Mr. Obama winning, 45.1 percent to 35.3 percent. His roughly 10-point margin in the poll is smaller than in a Google poll after the second debate, which gave it to Mr. Obama by 17 points, or Mr. Romney’s after the first, which he won by 22 points. There is, obviously, some disagreement on the magnitude of Mr. Obama’s advantage — the polls surveyed different types of voters and applied different methods to do so. But averaging the results from the CBS News, CNN and Google polls, which conducted surveys after all three presidential debates along with the one between the vice-presidential candidates, puts Mr. Obama’s margin at 16 points. ... NYT
  2. I guess it was not easy doing this in Afghanistan, wearing a black suit and riding a bicycle. I guess that's why Romney went to France.
  3. Who will win the debate tonight? And will the winner take all, i.e. win the election?
  4. Generally I think it's a valid topic. But don't you wonder why right wing blogs pushing this topic 4 weeks before the election? It seems that painting it as problem especially for Romney is to divert attention away from threats from the right against Obama. And of course it fits into the image that like Obama who has been called by the right a fascist, socialist, as anti-american, un-patriotic, etc., his followers are the same: violent radicals who want to destroy the country. Secret Service says number of threats against president 'overwhelming' According to the Secret Service, the president is the most threatened person in the U.S., regardless of political party. He is not made aware of all threats against him, however, because Kierstead said the "sheer number would be overwhelming and, frankly, distracting." http://mynorthwest.c...ts-overwhelming AND Since Mr Obama took office, the rate of threats against the president has increased 400 per cent from the 3,000 a year or so under PresidentGeorge W. Bush, according to Ronald Kessler, author of In the President's Secret Service. Some threats to Mr Obama, whose Secret Service codename is Renegade, have been publicised, including an alleged plot by white supremacists in Tennessee late last year to rob a gun store, shoot 88 black people, decapitate another 14 and then assassinate the first black president in American history. Most however, are kept under wraps because the Secret Service fears that revealing details of them would only increase the number of copycat attempts. Although most threats are not credible, each one has to be investigated meticulously. http://www.telegraph...et-Service.html
  5. You seem to be fascinated by right wing bloggers fear of pro Obama rioters and anti-Romney threats. As if the US electorate had just become violent in the past 2 months...
  6. You'll find the answer here: Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces? By NATE SILVERPresident Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were 64.8 percent as of Tuesday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, down slightly from 66.0 percent on Monday. The forecast will not yet reflect any effects from Tuesday night’s debate in New York, any impact of which will require a few days to become apparent in the forecast. Tuesday featured an interesting set of surveys, however. While Mr. Obama’s numbers were middling on the whole, one set of them implied that the polls may be inclined to overstate the effect of events like the party conventions and the debates. Mr. Obama’s poorest set of numbers came from a pair of national polls. A weekly survey conducted by Public Policy Polling for the blog Daily Kos had Mitt Romney ahead by four points among likely voters. So did the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Romney hitting 50 percent of the vote for the first time. It would be terrific news for Mr. Romney if he were consistently at 50 percent in the polls. That threshold would ensure that he could win (or at least tie) the popular vote, even without picking up any additional support from undecided voters. But other national polls published on Tuesday were not in agreement with the Gallup and Public Policy Polling numbers. Rather, three of the six national polls published on Tuesday had Mr. Obama leading the race. The same three polls also had Mr. Obama improving his numbers from the previous edition of the same survey, while the other three had him declining. ... What to make of this pattern? Not much, I don’t think. On Monday, the national polls did seem to form a nice, tight distribution, clustered around the mean. On Tuesday, they didn’t. If the differences persist, they will be worthy of our attention, but the strong suspect here is simply statistical noise. ... http://fivethirtyeig...gerate-bounces/
  7. Flash, all rightwing chatter becomes really boring. Here is the most important result of the debate: ‘Binders full of women’ meme spreads By: Patrick Gavin October 16, 2012 10:02 PM EDT During Tuesday night’s town hall debate, in response to an answer about gender inequality in the workforce, Mitt Romney referred to having received “binders full of women†from colleagues during his time in the private sector. The line also inspired a Romney’s Binder Twitter account, and a popular Binders Full Of WomenTumblr, with references to Hugh Hefner, “Call Me Maybe,†“Say Anything,†“Dirty Dancing,†Texts from Hillary, Ryan Gosling and, of course, Trapper Keeper.
  8. Ship me a TG, it can even be a non-GTG, and everything is fine again.
  9. In the end, that's what's counts. All the noise in right and left media don't mean much. It's the undecided and unenthusiastic voters...
  10. We are very sensitive, aren't we. I just put together the information from Channel4's fact check and Mekong's info about oil running out. It's very simple and should be even understood by a Scott.
  11. According to this fact check http://blogs.channel...s-it-alone/6524 Scotland becoming an independent nation isn't a problem financially - as long as revenue from oil goes to Scotland and is as high as today... Taking Mekong's information into account Scotland would run out of money within two dedaces or less.
  12. The king seems to have been absolutely brillant playing to all sides and winning for decades. But then he made two major mistakes, first supporting the Khmer rouge and after their end by weakening the position of his son Prince Ranariddh as the co-leader of the country, which gave the other co-leader Hun Sen the opportunity to take over the government completely. I guess he will go into history as a brillant king who brought independence and prosperity to the country, but finally failed his country completely by initially supporting one of the most terrible regimes in the history of mankind. PS: I guess the palace in the center of PP survived because Sihanouk was put under house arrest there. It seems the the Khmer Rouge didn't dare to touch him.
  13. This sounds like a 2. world country - Whisky aside it could be LOS.
  14. I am completely ignorant about Scotland. Expect that around 25 years ago I was invited to join a free tour during an art festival to all major venues (while staying at 5 star hotels) I don't know nothing about it. Scot politics and economy aren't in the news outside GB that often (if at all).
  15. It really depends on the country. We have a lot of small countries in Europe and the northern ones do extremely well. But these are countries with century old structures and economies - combined with excellent education systems and no corruption. Some of the countries becoming independent more recently are not doing that well (Slowakia, Serbia - both are highly corrupt and underdeveloped). In Spain autonomous regions like Basque Country are fighting for to become independent states, but they are virtually bankrupt and couldn't survive on its own. Is think Mekong's assessement is very important. Small countries will only survive, if they are a) have raw material to sell, b.)or have a highly skilled workforce and show a lot of entrepreneurship for to develop own industries. And it is very important that the country has a highly functional infrastructure, bureaucracy and political system (like in Scandinavia). How about the Scots - Highland Games, oil and Whisky aside?
  16. Spoiler Alert! G.O.P. Fighting Libertarian’s Spot on the Ballot By JIM RUTENBERG When he was running for the Republican presidential nomination last year, Gary Johnson, the former two-term Republican governor of New Mexico, drew ridicule from mainstream party members as he advocated legalized marijuana and a 43 percent cut in military spending. Now campaigning as the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, Mr. Johnson is still only a blip in the polls. But he is on the ballot in every state except Michigan and Oklahoma, enjoys the support of a few small “super PACs†and is trying to tap into the same grass-roots enthusiasm that helped build Representative Ron Paul a big following. And with polls showing the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney to be tight, Mr. Johnson’s once-fellow Republicans are no longer laughing. Around the country, Republican operatives have been making moves to keep Mr. Johnson from becoming their version of Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate whose relatively modest support cut into Al Gore’s 2000 vote arguably enough to help hand the decisive states of Ohio and Florida to George W. Bush. The fear of Mr. Johnson’s tipping the outcome in an important state may explain why an aide to Mr. Romney ran what was effectively a surveillance operation into Mr. Johnson’s efforts over the summer to qualify for the ballot at the Iowa State Fair, providing witnesses to testify in a lawsuit to block him that ultimately fizzled. Libertarians suspect it is why Republican state officials in Michigan blocked Mr. Johnson from the ballot after he filed proper paperwork three minutes after his filing deadline. And it is why Republicans in Pennsylvania hired a private detective to investigate his ballot drive in Philadelphia, appearing at the homes of paid canvassers and, in some cases, flashing an F.B.I. badge — he was a retired agent — while asking to review the petitions they gathered at $1 a signature, according to testimony in the case and interviews. more at NYT
  17. What is the essence of upward mobility (hard work aside and a relatively stable environment aside? Excellent education for the lower and middle class! But as I understand US public schools are terrible, especially in poor areas - black or not. US kids are falling way behind to the leading industrial nations. The GOP has promised to make it worse locally and nationally (free market for education).
  18. Actually I got the impression that Obama avoided to do anything special for the black people for to avoid any critic that he is giving favors to them. Also it is well documentated, that the great advantage of the USA, it's upward social mobility as decreased so much that it is lower than in Europe today.
  19. I think that's complete bullshit. I don't see any reports that there had been trouble in the past weeks. During the midterm election in 2010 it was far worse with a lot of demonstrations, agression and shouting matches during town hall meetings e.g.. First there was the Tea Party and then Occupy Wallstreet. Both movements have lost their momentum. It even seems that voter participation on both sides is lower than in 2008. Why should uninterested, frustrated voters go violent after the election? IMHO the anger is mostly media generated, especially by radikal blogs and talk radio and Fox. PS: And it's strange that the article doesn't mention the background of the biggest voter registration scandal this season which spread over several states, executed by a GOP funded company. Yes, the Dems were furious, but otherwise nothing happened.
  20. There are many more. Until 10 days ago US media (except Fox and co.) in an avalanche of articles declared Romney an incompetent loser, who was running a terrible campaign and has incompetent staff. Obama instead did everything almost perfectly. Now Obama is suddenly the incompetent loser, while Romney suddenly found his mojo... Seeing this I guess both versions are exaggerated. The election is simply too close and no one has an idea of the outcome (except the spinmasters on both sides of course). But the audience would get really bored if the media would repeat this every day. Therefore they have to create drama.
  21. It's most interesting to see how US media switched from daily Romney bashing to daily Obama bashing within a day. As I said before, the 24 h news cycle forces the US media to blow up any tiny piece of information. Before the debate Obama was the genius campaigner who was beating Romney since months and know they say that Obama is just a loser... Sept. 27: Daily Beast GOP Self-Delusion Syndrome With Obama’s lead in several swing states becoming insurmountable, the right has begun to panic Oct. 8. Daily Beast Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away? The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating.
  22. The Bourne Legacy Saw it on large screen. Not worth the money. Much weaker than the original Bourne trilogy. Actors not as good, story predictable, action scenes less thrilling, boring end without a real showdown. Moonrise Kingdom One of the few movies which are an absolute pleasure to watch. Wonderful cast in all leading parts - among others Bruce Willis and Tilda Swinton together in a movie! - and perfect supporting actors. Nice story, great visuals, perfect scenery and costumes, perfect film music. I should have seen this movie on a large screen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N8wkVA4_8s
  23. As I understand a major part of the therapy of the A.A. (Anonymous Alcoholics) is based on Christian beliefs... I guess Christianity has two sides, the 'Bavarian' where monasteries still produce their own very strong beer and the Northern European Christian side which despised anything which has to do with lust and fun...
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