Thaksin has totally miscalculated his chances of getting a reconciliation (read: amnesty) bill passed in the current state of affairs in Thailand, and it nearly backfired to the point of severely destabilizing, if not bringing down Yingluck's cabinet.
Thailand is on the verge of a certain unspeakable transition and some very powerful people do not want Thaksin's presence in the country to interfere with that when the time is on.
It is now clear for everyone that Thaksin's return is not going to happen in the foreseeable future, and this has a political consequence that perhaps neither Thaksin nor the PTP big guns expected: Yingluck is going to run for re-election and that will be a totally different setting than her first run when she was basically unknown.
In my view, everything indicates that, unless something goes badly wrong in Thailand, Yingluck will likely be re-elected and it will be on her own merits, this time around. Her standing as the true leader of the PTP will have to be not only accepted, but promoted by the other top party members in order to win such election; then Thaksin's political relevance would be somewhat reduced.
So perhaps, Voranai's scenario is not as unlikely as he writes. It all depends on the timing, the proceedings and the outcome of that 'unspeakable transition'.