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zzzz last won the day on December 24 2020

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  1. Covid is on it's way out . So the question is, where do I put my ducets at this point. If you know, you are better than me.
  2. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    That flaw you mention is only in your mind [there is no need for insults! - KS]. This model is only about people with Covid who are inpatients. People without hospital care are outside the scope of this model. That paper was used only to get the mortality of Covid patients, so why are you concerned that it didn't mentioned medical errors??????? There are smarter people in the statistic forum http://www.talkstats.com/threads/could-an-average-us-person-with-covid-more-likely-die-from-medical-error-than-from-covid.76525/ You guys let me down. I gave you more credit.
  3. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    What makes you think Medical Error so mush higher for Covid than COPD, Asthma and Pneumonia which basically follow similar diagnostics and treatment? Reference? There is a disconnect. I lost you. And you lost me. I’m using the death from medical error data provided by Johns Hopkins. 10%. They don’t go into the details that you mention. You sound like a crazy man. Are you OK? Mekong, are you hitting the bottle again?
  4. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    🤷‍♂️ You have to carefully look at all assumptions and how they are used before you can understand the results.
  5. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    According to JAVA Network (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/ 2774572), mortality of Covid patients averaged about 8.5%, of which 5% is estimated to be caused by medical errors (from above). That leaves 3.5% mortality from Covid. In this case, you are more likely to die from medical errors (5%) than from Covid (3.5%) if hospitalized.
  6. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    I got a response to the above from a statistics forum that is interesting: “There is a threshold for being admitted. A person with an oxygen saturation level under 90% isn't going to have a choice to be admitted or not. You have to think about things as conditional probabilties. Probability of dying given you are sick enough to be admitted is the setting. Hospital treatments aren't that complex, maybe antiviral, anti-inflammatories, monoclonals, plasma, and supportive oxygen. The risks would come from individual risk factors (comorbidities, and immune responses [cytokine storms]) and nosocomial infections, but there are covid units so risk to other pathogens is low. The risk of medical error shouldn't be on the mind since these people would have no other option”
  7. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    I don't think you know what looks right. Do you know what looks right? 5555555
  8. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    Too many x-rays can be deadly. That may be a medical error. Recently I had to get x-rays done three times because, they couldn't get it right the first two times. Then I was given two more when referred to other offices that wanted to do their own x-rays. Medical error are common in my area.
  9. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    0.715% corresponds to number of medical error deaths per hospitalizations (living and dead). 9.5% corresponds to number of medical error deaths for those that died after being hospitalized (dead only).
  10. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    The Johns Hopkins report states "...based on a total of 35,416,020 hospitalizations, 251,454 deaths stemmed from a medical error, which the researchers say now translates to 9.5 percent of all deaths each year in the U.S." This is consistent with considering only inpatient in my analysis.
  11. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    I may need medical error death rates for inpatient, outpatient, and outside hospitals. But it depends on how Johns Hopkins got the 10%— did they included them all or just inpatient deaths.
  12. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    This analysis assumes you have covid, simple as that. This is a "If you have covid, what is the likelihood..." analysis.
  13. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    This is a generalized (back of an envelope) evaluation which simply assumes that medical error that causes death occurs (during the 40 days that an average person spends) in a hospital during his lifetime. What type of medical error or whether that error happens on day one or day 40 is irrelevant because of the simple and general nature of this analysis. This assumption, however, may be lacking because some medical errors deaths could occur outside the hospital, such as in a doctor's office, in an ambulance, etc. The fraction outside the hospital can be incorporated once it is known.
  14. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    Covid does not kill 3% per annum; it kills 3% per event. Event is when you have Covid. In my analysis, above, I assume one Covid event per person during lifetime. But if a person catches Covid again, the numbers are the same.
  15. zzzz

    The Covid-19 thread

    I’m inclined now to think otherwise based on some new assumptions: A US person average about 40 days in hospital during lifetime (https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb246-Geographic-Variation-Hospital-Stays.jsp) Covid patient average about 20 days in hospital (https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-8d57-11e586bd8a4f.html) With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used. Covid death rate is 3% Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime Medical error death rate for Covid patients = (With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used) * (Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime) = 5% Since medical error death rate for Covid patient (5%) is higher than Covid death rate (3%), an average US person with Covid will likely die from medical error than from Covid.
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