Impeachment is not the biggest threat to Trump getting re-elected. The stigma of impeachment isn't enough. If he gets exonerated in the Senate it's still possible for him to get re-elected. It will make it very hard and it would depend a lot on what is unearthed.
The biggest threat by far is the economy, specifically a crash happening before the election. If he wins and there is a crash late 2020 or in 2021, he will go down in history as the 2nd coming of Herbert Hoover.
The next crash won't be pretty. It will rival the great depression in size and scope. That sounds alarmist but there are factors in place that suggest it will dwarf 2008. If a Democrat wins, he can blame it on Trump if it happens within 6 months. If it happens longer out, it would be tougher. Obama could blame the economy on Bush and Republicans very easy.
Anyway, if the economy crashes and most financiers, business leaders and economists are now openly talking about it happening some time in 2020 (my guess is October for historical reasons), before the election, the Democrats will sweep both houses. Similar to Obama's first 2 years. Trump will fight the 2nd Bush and Nixon for the worst president in modern history and he'll lose to Bush because Bush now seen as your kindly, sweet grand dad and he'll battle it out with Nixon. Younger people will put him above Nixon, those over 50 will put him below Nixon probably.
I've said this on here and in the financial section. America is juggling a few different bubbles all at the same time and if they all pop at the same time, we may see a larger Greece where we are limited to a certain amount of money at the ATM for a few days or weeks till they get their hands around the problem. Trump is touting an unemployment rate he criticized Obama and the government over. He was right during the campaign when he said the unemployment numbers were rigged. So are his. The true unemployment number in America is not 3%. Millions have to take a 2nd job, Uber, part time work at a call center in the evenings, whatever they have to do because they can't afford a house and that has driven the millions who want to purchase a home and can't into the rental market so now there is an oversupply of tenants and landlords can drive up prices. Salaries have stagnated. I am currently staying at a friend's home in Los Angeles. It's a part of LA that was notorious when I l left America. It's not as bad due to gentrification several blocks away but I don't venture outside late at night either. If anyone is aware of the Nipsey Hussle rapper murder, I can walk there in 4-5 minutes. Slauson and Crenshaw for those who know LA. The rent he pays for a 1 bedroom apartment is $1,250 and he is older and that is subsidized. That same rent when I left in 2009 was $750 tops. So, the same worker in the same area has to come up with an extra $500 a month. His wages haven't gone up $500 a month. It's stagnant since that time. That worker has to get a roommate or a 2nd job or whatever he or she has to do. I have a cousin in LA who is living with his girlfriend and her child due to rental issues. He or she may try moving to a lower rent area but as far as I know and I have asked, there isn't rent lower than that and if you are so lucky, you will have to drive through a lot of traffic to get to work on time.
That 3% are all second jobs and under employment of the young. College grads have school loans and are taking anything they can to pay. They are working as clerks at Enterprise car rental, driving Uber, selling things on Poshmark Etsy, and other eCommerce activities. They are still living at home but if they are in a city where they have no family they are living 2 or 3 to a flat. Renting a sofa is common now. A growing number of people who fell on hard times and have to take a low paying job are now living out of their car. They join a 24 hour health club for showers, drive Uber after their low paying job.
The economy was bad under Obama. The reason why there were tens of thousands of people who voted for Obama twice and then voted for Trump in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, was out of desperation. Trump even got some black votes out of that. Obama did the best he could but the recovery wasn't a great recovery. A lot of it is not his fault. America has endemic economic issues that predated Obama's election.The Republicans made sure he couldn't pass anything that would help such as an infrastructure bill that Republicans support, because it would mean hundreds of thousands of jobs. What he can be blamed for is not doing enough due to taking Wall Street, Hollywood and other types of money that kept the status quo to some extent.
Hard care Trump supporters, the ones that would actually still vote for him if he shot someone are not motivated by the economy. It's a much deeper issue for them. They put stopping the demographic changes America is going through as paramount. Bigger than their wallet. They see an existential threat to them and their progeny. That is not new. The 'nativists' of the mid to late 1800s and early 1900s felt even stronger believe it or not. The 'latinos' of that age were eastern Europeans (Slsvs, etc), Irish catholics, Jews, all catholics actually who they called 'papists'., and anyone else who wasn't western European, protestant. If you can defend kids in cages, and for some quietly applaud it, it's about demographic changes.
When the economy crashes it won't matter. They are voting for non economic reasons. There are tons of Republicans who lost out financially after the crash in 2008 and still voted for McCain. There will be millions who will vote for Trump after a crash, even if they will lose their job or farm as a result. In their minds, long term, they stand a much better chance of recovery with someone who will maintain the status quo. The religious right will vote for Trump no matter what. The religious right are similar to other zealot, tightly knit religious groups in that they will try and take care of each other in bad times and they see their vote as a religious act.
Trump will blame a crash on anyone or any thing but himself and some will echo it. Not because they believe it deep down, but the alternative is Sanders or Warren. They will, will themselves to believe it. If this past election recently is any indication, we may break records for the number of people voting. The Republican that lost the governorship of Kentucky had a record turnout of Republicans. What Republican strategists all know is that there are simply too many progressives/liberals/Democrats out there. If Democrats or people who ideologically compare to Democrats vote, Republicans will lose and lose big. Virginia had record turnouts for Republicans when their legislature went Democratic for the first time in decades. That is why Republicans employ strategies that will reduce turnout such as voter ID or reduce the effectiveness of Democrats such as gerrymandering. It's self survival.
The future doesn't bode well for Republicans. They have the majority of only one niche: white males. And that number is dropping annually. The only person I can see winning for them in the immediate/intermediate (next 8-10 years) future is possibly Nikki Barber. The country is going to shift far left in the future based on simple demographics. Mllennials, Gen x and Gen y are overwhelmingly progressive.
So, back to economics. Back in 2008 it was a housing bubble. This time around we have a housing bubble but also a few other bubbles and when I say bubble I mean exposure over 1 trillion dollars (to put it in context our annual budget is 5 trillion). Credit card/personal debt bubble, car loan bubble, corporate debt bubble, student loan bubble. All at least 1.5 trillion and the corporate debt bubble is at least 20 trillion. AT&T's debt is more than almost all countries. I've read reports of it being over 200 billion dollars. This article is from a year ago and its 160 billion
If the economy is so great, then why don't 40% of Americans have $400? https://abcnews.go.com/US/10-americans-struggle-cover-400-emergency-expense-federal/story?id=63253846
On a sidenote, it shows you how incompetent the Democrats are at politics that they don't 'site this number whenever Trump raves about the 3% unemployment rate. Love them or hate them, the Republicans have to be respected thoroughly for the effectiveness of how they perform politics. Amazing.