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chocolat steve

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Everything posted by chocolat steve

  1. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    This is what I think might be a very real scenario. I'm totally convinced there will be a very, very nasty economic downturn and calling it a downturn may be too kind of a description. I would not be surprised about a full blown depression on the order of the 1930s. We forget that we were a hair from it in 2008 and this time around there isn't just one bubble (back then it was subprime loans in the housing market). This time around we have that again but there are 3 or 4 other bubbles that are at least 1.5 trillion or more in exposure. So, this happens under a Republican president and that party gets booted out. Even the Trump supporters abandon ship just as some Republicans did with the party in 2008 right after the October crash. This will usher in far left, democratic socialism and that person may very well use the precedents that Trump has set with what many will deem executive branch overreach as a reason to mandate wide, whole scale changes to society and the economy. That president will have probably both houses of Congress. The supreme court may still be tilted right as they don't change with elections but any retirees or deaths will bring in a moderate or liberal to re-tilt the court left. That is the main thing that I think conservatives/Republicans need to mind with the current administration. There is a new lowering of standards, etc. I'm not saying it to critique Trump but just stating facts. When its your guy you overlook it. Just like how Dems overlooked what was deemed executive branch overreach from Obama's use of executive orders. I may sound alarmist but I think its a distinct possibility. FDR wouldn't have been able to do what he did were it not for a the Great Depression and I see the same scenario coming. Whether you agree or not, I see medicare for all as our version of national healthcare. Possibly some sort of VAT on all goods and services.Imminent domain to be used to take over properties for bullet trains between cities and states as well as to expand urban mass transit. I can see green energy being de facto law of the land going forward. Banks being heavily regulated. Maybe a basic income like what Yang is proposing of 1,000 dollars for every adult. Something Switzerland tried but was rejected by voters eventually. Lobbyist power and money reduced massively. Overall, basically, a European style economy. And I think the level of attack on Ocasio Cortez and to some extent Omar is that the Republicans as well as the Democrats see the future. I've never seen freshmen congresspersons get that much scrutiny ever. They are under a microscope for a reason and that reason is fear. That type of person will possibly be running the Congress in 4 to 8 years ushered in by an economic collapse where people lose faith in establishment politics from both sides.
  2. chocolat steve

    What Film (Movie) Have You Just Watched?

    Triple Frontier [2019] Ben Affleck, Oscar Isaac, Charlie Hunnam, Garrett Hedlund and Pedro Pascal as ex special forces who attempt to rob one of the world’s most violent cartels. I liked it. It's a story of greed and friendship and a backhanded slight against how the US military/government treats the soldiers who have done the heavy lifting in wars for our politicians.
  3. chocolat steve

    New Zealand Thread

    My sincerest condolences. The last place you expect to see a tragedy like this is NZ frankly. Generally speaking, I've rarely ever met a Kiwi that wasn't cool as shit. But you can always have a bad apple or two in any society, even the best of them. The prime minister's comments were spot on as a reaction to it. This tragedy tells all of us that we must fight hate everywhere, and no place, no matter how unlikely to have such events are vulnerable. It only takes one person.
  4. chocolat steve

    Been Seeing This Niche in Porn

    I don't watch porn as much as I used to but a buddy of mine was telling me about some hot new porn actress (actress...haha...that term still makes me laugh). It was on Pornhub (this is not a paid endorsement plug ) and I noticed while looking at the pages, there are a LOT OF porn themes centered around incest. Sometimes its 'step sister' and 'step daughter' but a lot of are brother sister, step mom, cousin, etc. What the fuck is this? Porn mirrors society to some extent. What the fuck is going in America where that is the preferred theme?
  5. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47461006?ns_mchannel=social&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_source=facebook&ns_campaign=bbcnews&fbclid=IwAR1rsQf5r6beM5q1pqPVTNPxk9ALgxkM3bF2U8wN6zM2mCexizovXIj8sDc
  6. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    Despite what the government numbers are saying, people are living paycheck to paycheck mostly. They are mostly in jobs they don't really want and are doing just to survive. I'm not putting it on Trump. This started under Obama. The 2008 recession ended the great jobs. We were technically expanding but it was all propped up by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and Congress. It's going to be a nasty recession. Much bigger and deeper than the 2008 recession. You are warned.
  7. Gold and silver has been a proven asset in bad economics time for 1000s of years.
  8. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    When Trump was on the campaign stump he kept hammering to the crowd that the economic numbers were fluffed. That the true unemployment rate (under 6 percent officially at the time) was really about 15 or 20 percent if you count under employed. That the Fed was propping up the economy. That the jobs numbers were very wrong. It resonated because the government and news told you one thing but your life and everything around didn't reflect it. It was the government saying 'Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?'. Trump was absolutely right. We never recovered fully from the 2008 crash. The great jobs before the crash never came back. People were desperate. They were not seeing first hand this economy that was supposedly getting better under Obama. There were thousands and thousands of people who voted for Bernie in the primaries and Trump in the general election. Hillary was seen as part of the problem. There were many Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania who voted for Trump. They held their nose and did it. They didn't tell their family or friends.They were never going to wear MAGA hats. I live outside the country. I wonder if things have really changed for the good. Trump is touting the very same stats used in the prior administration that he called fake. The murmurs I've heard from the ones who voted for him out of desperation and it was really a no pro establishment Hillary rather than a pro Trump vote. I have a good friend who fancies himself a very good amateur political scientist. He thinks the Democratic voters who took a chance on Trump now regret it. They would vote for him over Hillary again but if the Dems can field someone who can address their economic situation they'll gladly give him or her the vote. Then he says there are the hardcore Trump voters who aren't doing much better if at all from the Obama years BUT they feel better about themselves and live vicariously through Trump. They will vote for him again because they have lied to themselves. They won't vote for Bernie they will vote strictly identity politics. There are many, many people like those in the article below in California who have not seen anything improve one iota and in some cases worse. Thoughts? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/los-angeles-hidden-homeless-priced-out-cbsn-originals/?fbclid=IwAR3tTo6tUBXG2ltRpBUSThom4x1AvJS2FmIMO8vEV7JhTwMTv9qhMndj1sE
  9. chocolat steve

    A Letter From Death Row

    Sad, seems we will never really know the truth. I don't know all the facts but I am also aware people are often scapegoated for convenience.
  10. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    I'll make it up to the progressives on this thread with the following post 😁
  11. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    One of the few times pretty much everyone will agree on this administration's actions. This crazy bitch shows no real remorse and seems very non chalant. Stay the fuck out there. You made your decision and I'm not gonna buy into the she wasn't an adult and not able to make rational decisions either. Not this time. Fuck this crazy bitch, not my tax dollars. Sorry, her attitude grates me. She seems to have no concept of the magnitude of her actions. I sound like a triggered alt right nationalist...haha. PS: She is kinda cute though but....
  12. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    That surprises me since the religious right is very supportive of him. The religious right pretty much has one standard. Anti abortion. That's it. Lip service to anything else.
  13. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    National emergency proclamations are typically bipartisan.
  14. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    No matter what you think of the National Emergency, there are possible future ramifications if this is precedence. Lets say its 2020 and the global economy as well as America is in massive and pervasive economic turmoil because all the bubbles of America, China and other countries have all come to fruition. America elects a far left of center President. This President uses this precedence to say one or more of the following is a national emergency and skirts the Congress: * Health care is a national emergency and so medicare for all. * The banking system and big banks are a national emergency so they are privatized by the Fed. * Climate change is a national and international emergency so forced conversion to green energy. See where this is going? When you make rules and laws and set precedence its not for now, it should always be seen as something a future person you don't want can use.
  15. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    Supposedly we are arming people (Locals as well as possibly neighboring troops) or toying with doing it ourselves to take over Venezuela for supposedly "humanitarian" reasons and for "democracy" but we don't do the same for Honduras and other places. Maybe...just maybe...its the oil. China has spent 76 billion dollars there, far more than any other South American county. So, this may be a showdown. https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-real-reason-the-u-s-wants-to-overthrow-venezuela/
  16. In any crash, being debt free and cash on hand, is the best and those folks are best poised to take advantage of assets at basement prices. Cash rich Chinese investors made out like bandits after the 2008 crash. Anyone who has relatively sizeable amount of cash on hand will be at a huge advantage.
  17. Anyway, the unanswered questions is what is going to happen if the next crash/recession, collapse, what ever it will be named happens. It's suppoesd to dwarf 2008. My guess is whole countries/societies will be changed socially and/or ideologically, America among them. I think America will shift far to the left. Europe will be under a lot of economic stress if, as expected, a few countries already economically weak now such as Spain, Italy and Greece simply collapse. France might end up farther right. There are debates now if Germany is actually in a recession. There are accepted data that says you are or aren't in a recession but that's just a stat. https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/14/germany-economy-recession-gdp-eurozone-growt-trade-talks-business-live The one thing that may result out of is that the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency.
  18. New Zealand has also been a place where the rich want to retire or hide out from the apocalyps...lol. I'm not rich by any one's standards but I was/am looking seriously at NZ as well. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-valley-billionaires-are-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-in-new-zealand
  19. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/william-keegan-nine-british-financial-crises-since-1967
  20. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    Is he Tory or Labour?
  21. The UK (as well as most industrialized nations, basically the G8 for the most part) has a housing bubble. London is particularly susceptible. I've read Austrailia is particularly vulnerable when the next global recession hits. So, if we do believe there is definitely a recession, crash, whatever you want to call it, happens, what do you do? Debt free and cash on hand is what is recommended by experts. You have to then look at your source of income. If its a job, will it be there after a crash? Certain jobs will always be in demand. There is a nursing shortage globally. There are all kinds of nurses so the more specialized ones (Emergency, surgery, pediatrics, etc.) will be in demand. Specific skills in tech/STEM will still be in demand. Rental income from property will still make money in certan markets. There will always be a need for housing in London, NYC, LA.
  22. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    On balance, I'm not too sure I buy the narrative of Trump supporters now angry over an increase in taxes owed. Why? They have forgiven him for much, much more. Unleess it's significantly more, but they knew the wealthy were getting a big break and didn't expect the same for themselves. So to be fair, I think some of this 'blow back' are non Trump supporters saying they are to create a narrative. I know I sound like Sean Hannity but as I said, there are a lot of stuff Trump has done and they have forgiven or ignored that adversely affects them, so why should this be any different?
  23. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    Hmm..
  24. I got into cryptos in 2015 well before the run up. I didn't bet the house..haha...only money I could afford to lose comfortably. So, despite the drop I'm still showing a gain but not enough to retire on. As far as the market, I am a firm believer there will be a massive crash. The stock market in America at least, has been propped up since the 2008 'Great Recession'. QE, Quantitative Easing, is just a made up word for the Federal Reserve using our tax dollars to keep the economy propped up. America has never had boom years last longer than 6 or 7 years. The Roaring 20s really started around 1923 or 24 and ended with the crash in '29. The '50s years weren't the whole 50s. We had a war for the first 3 years of it where we spent a mint in Korea. The '80s boom started in around 83-84 depending on what stats you go with and culminated with the '87 crash. The '90s started out as a recession and didn't get going until about 93-94 and ended late 90s with the dot com crash. We have had a so called economic expansion since 2009. Longest in history. But unlike the other expansions, it doesn't feel like one. In the '90s it felt like a boom period. This doesn't because it isn't. The great pre 2008 jobs never really came back. We are also nursing a few huge bubbles. 2008 was a housing bubble. This time around we have the same housing bubble because the government gave in to its corporate overlords and let the banks do the same things it did before. So, there is a housing bubble again. There is also a student loan bubble, roughly 1.5 trillion give or take. Many college grads have either stopped paying on their loan or are one check away from being insolvent. There is a car loan bubble that is over a trillion dollars. The average car loan is now over 5 years and the cost of new cars can be over 30k so you have loans as much as 7 years with a value of 30k or 40k in many instances from people living paycheck to paycheck. The companies with the paper are going to be bankrupt. There is a corporate loan bubble, this goes into the trillions as well. Companies have been using the next to 0 percent interest rate to buy back its own stock. CEOs have the lions share of their money in company stock and have been using the company's own money to buy back shares and keeping the stock high instead of investing in the company itself. We also have a credit card bubble that is well over a trillion. Most people are a paycheck away from not being able to make the minimum of their credit card payments. All this will culminate in a crash. The stock market didn't end well in 2018 and I doubt it will end higher than it started in 2019. Being debt free, and cash rich is going to be huge when the crash happens Assets will be on the cheap and just like the last recession those with cash made out like bandits. A new component is China. They are sitting on a massive housing bubble. As well as a couple other bubbles. So we have the world's two largest economies that will face a massive crash and take the rest of the world with it. China and America combined are just under 50 percent of the world's GNP depending on what figures you agree with. Anywhere from 40 to 45 percent at a minimum. Yeah, I sound pessimistic but I prefer realist or pragmatist. I think precious metals are going to do well because the dollar will crash and I have serious doubts the American dollar will remain the world's reserve currency. China, Russia and Iran are certainly working to end that monopoly. A few countries currencies may hold its value a bit more than others such as the Singapore dollar. Maybe the Swiss franc as well. Countries that are relatively debt free especially in emerging markets will fare decently but everyone will be hurt. No one will be spared. Finally, I think cryptos or certain ones will emerge and attain new highs, higher than December of 2017. I may sound like a nut..lol..but I can see bitcoin hitting 25k a piece or more. Or Ethereum going to 5k a coin. Cryptos are not going to be insolvent. There is way too much money trading it now. It's expanding in terms of adoption not retreating. It trades in the billions weekly. People say its only a blip on a screen. Yes, and so is everything in Forex trading. I trade forex and when you buy or sell gold, the stock market, oil or whatever, there is no underlying commodity. You can't take receipt of the oil or gold you trade, its all blips on a screen. But no one thinks that is fake either. If enough people believe in something it is real. If enough people treat anything as a valuable commodity it is a valuable commodity as long as there is a willing buyer or seller.
  25. chocolat steve

    Usa Thread

    Hmm...
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