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junglesoup

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About junglesoup

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  • Birthday 07/24/1980
  1. Hey folks, hows things? Just saw this thread the other day, its nice to see people still come back to this thread. Well, still alive, I have stopped posting on most forums these days, I did'nt stop posting due to the diagnosis or anything, it was just coincidence. Just was finding that my productivity levels were fallen through the floor and been working online a lot, so needed to focus, without logging into a forum every 5 minutes, as fun as it is. As MM said 3 years since that last post, could'nt help laughing at Chelseafans reply, very funny, but the sentiment is appreciated, I know the NHS are slow with results, but they aren't that bad yet,haha. Well,I have to say I must be one of the luckiest people to have this virus. I could never have hoped or imagined that things would work out as they are doing. I m going to the doctor once every 6 months now. The virus has been undetectable since day one, and they have tried all the assays, the supposedly more sensitive ones, however, no sign of the virus in my blood anyway. Also my CD4 were at the lowest one the very first tests, 3 years ago in August around 840. Since that, about 7 tests they have been between 950-1150,which the upper limit of where they can go. The docs have talked about non-progression status which is a 0.7% chance of being if you have the virus. They said could be down to viral fitness, strain, the host...I like to think it is the host Joking aside, I have to say I am very lucky. Five years now with it almost, if I can get into the 5th year with the same results, then I ll be classed as long term non progressive, so fingers crossed. Thats why I only have to go once every six months. Apart from that, nothing much has changed, it is a bit shit when it comes to relationships,it is not exactly first date material, " hey just before you finish your dessert there, I hope you don't mind sleeping with an HIV person",,,haha, you know what I mean, although in saying that I did go out with a Thai student girl for a while, who accepted it, sexual side and all, and even came to a doc in Bumrungrad with me. It seems to be more UK birds have a problem, well the grand total of one that I told, so not many stats to go on there. All in all cannot complain and to be honest it doesn't really take up too much time in my mind. Reading back on this, it is good to see others have since gone and got tested when worried and there was no problems, its probably the worse type of dread feeling wondering and going for the test especially if you have a reason to be scared. When I m in Bangkok I still venture into the choice spots as a spectator, and its still good fun. Hope to be out after Christmas for a good long period, so anyone wants a beer let me know. Cheers, Chris
  2. junglesoup

    How to Buy Gold?

    Gold Coins Pros: Small, easy to store and sell, and easy to sell. Cons: Large premuims on the price as there is a certain "amount" of craftsmanship involved so paying way over the real spot price. The price would have to rise quite abit to break even, some of the premuims. An real life example was spot price $787, Canadian Maple leaf coin price $819...So a fair spread. Might be worth owning a couple as the price will probably move much higher anyway. ETF's Pros: Easy and cheap to own, no high costs, very liquid. Cons: Too many to be comfortable. Lack of auditing, I m very dubious if these ETF's have alot of this gold. They don't always track price. Too much counterparty risk... Solution...might be an idea to take deep out of the money put options out on the counter party as a hedge...Someone I spoke to online was holding an ETF from Lehmans but was worried about the counterparty risk...They were trading at over 30 USD at the time...I suggested taking out deep out of the money puts on Lehmans failing or at least the stock falling alot...that in itself would have been a very profitable move... Physical I think this is the way to go. Safe and you know you have the asset. Can be easily sold into the market Bullionby post I have signed up with these guys to buy some silver bars, seems like a good service. Guernsey Mint also... The Mint They have a good range of products and bullion bars... IMHO, owning some physical silver and gold is the way to go... You can also, hold emini future contracts using some leverage(or quite lot depending on how big your account is, and your margin cushion) One emini contract gives exposure to 33.3 ounces of gold, which is like holding ober $30,000 of gold. You can role the contract over each quarter. Again there is counterparty risk in the Comex also... All in all, buying and holding physical is the best way to go. Don't tell anyone you have it, and keep it safe... For investors who don't have large amounts of money to buy large amounts of gold, silver is the better option IMO. I actually think it will do better than gold as inflation adjusted it is over 80% belows its highs. Good Luck
  3. junglesoup

    HIV Treatment Success

    Hi Bust, well that is quite interesting. Well, while on topic of HIV, I may as well check in with an update. It is crazy and a flash, but that post I started is coming up in nearly 2 years now. It is hard to believe that for me. I read through that thread from start to finish not so long ago. I m surprised, but it has actually changed peoples opinions and behaviours from what I can gather. I m sure there are lots a few people who have googled HIV and Thailand, after they have come back from holiday, or who are just paranoid about their behaviour in LOS and found that thread coming up...So hopefully it has some effect, and paranoids go and get tested sooner rather than later, rather than being a nervous wreck for 18 months like myself. One of the posters in that thread said, that he thought the worst was behind me a few days after I made that post. I must pm him and say he was right, that the last 2 years have been much better, than the two years before it, ironically knowing I was poz made me feel better than not knowing,which I guess makes sense. Well, it really hasnt been too bad at all. If anyone ever gets that news, well it really does get better once you can sort it out in your head. To be honest I havent really been thinking about it at all. I would say it comes into my head one every couple of weeks...but I don't dwell, just many things can come into your head at anytime...HIV is no different. I think alot of this has to do with the medical side of things...I have been getting blood tests now since 2 years ago this August. I have went to see a specialist in Bumrungrad in that time, and have seen tow specilists in the UK. So far CD4 has been 740 832 940 1032 760 860 1160 was the last one 3 weeks ago...The viral load has been undetectable since day one. They have done roche viral load tests and all, and the doctor sat me down at my last meeting and said that they may consider putting me into a status of "super controller" if I can make another 12 months like this, which will be nearing the five year mark...This is all without medication. So thus far my body seems to be controlling the virus on its own, and I only need to go now 3 times a year and not four. I have had 6 months between appointments also. My cd4 have actually increased in the trend, and not fallen at all, and no vl. It will be four years this winter. So, if anyone else has had this news, keep your chin up as its not really too bad. I know I have been lucky so far. However, I know that these things can change, however you can olny live with the facts right now. And if I have to take meds in the future so be it. The only thing that is alittle annoying is the shagging part of things,haha. I miss my one night stands and BJ's...pretty shallow, eh? Hope to get back for long stay in Thailand next year, if a few things work out. Been back since, and its all fun still. Oh and by the way, I was meaning to write this a while back... I was there with my mate in bangkok for a few months, a while back. He knows about me of course, however, and is now shit scared. He did meet two girls on Sukhumvit, and he asked if they would mind getting tested, before he did anything. He just asked casually, no pressure if they would mind. They both did not mind. So he went to Bumrungrad the next day with the girl, and got the tests. Of course at different times( weeks apart when he met the two girls. Both were HIV negative, but one tested postive for hepatitis, and the other tested for something else(which was easily treatable), which he got her treatment for, I can't remember which one it was, maybe gonorrhea. I ll check... So two out of two tested for an STD. So there is alot of stuff out there... Cheers, laters. JS.
  4. Cheers Coops for the technical advice, and thanks to everyone else. So the risk is in who knows...I never here of too many people getting nicked for it. Being discrete seems to be the key. I know I mentioned it on here. But no one will know where I ll stay or my business. And if need be I ll just call the bookies with the phoneline account using skype or some other economical method. Cheers.
  5. Hi guys, just a quick question. If I was in bangkok, and earning money from fixed odds horse racing,(I know its sounds like a mugs game, haha, but I am actually making money doing it, consistently) and also the spreadbetting financial companies, using the likes of victor chandler, ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair, and financial firms like IG Index etc etc, would I be at risk? I mean the sites do work? I know it is illegal but would the authorities know you are accessing these sites? Would I get the MIB at knocking my door? Any help on this would be appreciated it.
  6. junglesoup

    Invest Now!! - Financial Analysts say

    I m not saying we donâ??t have a bottom forming now in stocks, probably this week, but my point is this. This is not a new bullmarket in stocks. We are in a longterm secular bear market in stocks which started in 2000. In 200 years of capitalism stocks and commodities have always moved inversely to each other. The secular commodity bull market began around 1999-2001. In the year 2000, commodities adjusted for inflation had never been cheaper in 200 years. History shows that commodity bullmarkets last a minimum of 15 years and can last up 40 years. Large corrections in commodities are normal. I just see it as a buying opportunity. So we are only 8 years into this commodity bullmarket. The fundamentals for commodities, the supply and demand fundamentals have never been so weak. As the world starts to come out of this recession, perhaps in a year or two, commodities will go to the moon, as the fundamentals are very impaired. Stocks will continue to under perform for quite a few years I think. Historically market bottoms can take 3 years to form, the decline has just been going for 14 months. Considering we have had the biggest credit market bubble in history, I expect this to one of the worst everâ?¦yes, we probably will get a rally now, that could last until next year. The market could rally 30-40%...who knows, but I think we will get another leg down on the S+P to somewhere between 500-700. The goldilocks perma bulls will be out in force when we get the rally thinking we have began a new bull market. What I layout below does not mean that I m saying the same will happen this time, but it shows the grave danger in trying to pick bottoms in stocks. It shows the market can rally a lot before another large move down. I expect the market to move down a lot more. However, not for the reasons and similarities in price action during the Great Depression, but from a fundamental valuation point of view on the cyclically adjusted PE ration, longterm wave valuation and the dividend yield fluctuations based on 140 years of stock market data. However, that is for another post. During the great Depression the DOW fell circa 50% by mid November 1929 to around 195. Some choice quotes from the time from government, analysts and economists show that risk and downturns are always mispriced. The black swan events that they believe can never happen, usually happenâ?¦. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 "This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline." - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929 "We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years." - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." - Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street." - The Times of London, November 2, 1929 "The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929 "...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929 "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 "In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929 "Financial storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 The market rallied from November 1929, well into 1930. The market went from 195 to299, a rise of 30%. The perma bulls were out in forceâ?¦I expect to hear similar rhethoric from our Bloomberg economists during this rallyâ?¦ "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 "... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930 "... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930 "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930 "Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930 From April 1930 until July 1932, the market crashed another 80% from 300 to 40. This marked the true bottom, in the midst of complete despondency and loss of hope. There are still far too many people calling a bottom. Historically, we have been very bad at calling bottoms. I will outline 3 fundamental reasons in another post why stocks at their peaks were about 50-70% over valued.
  7. junglesoup

    Invest Now!! - Financial Analysts say

    I m putting some money into commodities each month. Commodities will do well, water treatment companies, energy, uranium,Japanese yen,Swiss Franc, Chinese Yuan, golds,silver, Vietnam, Cambodia funds if you can find them. I also think renewable energy companies will do well over the next 10 years. I would buy the S+P somewhere between 500-700. FTSE between 2500-3000. SHorting the USD also. Oil will go to 300-500 USD over the next 10 years. And gold to 5000USD. Rather than predicting the exact numbers, the DOW/Gold ratio is a good indicator. When the DOW/Gold ratio is near one then we will be near a high in gold and a low in the DOW. So gold 3000, DOW 3000, Gold 5000, DOW 5000. All depends how much money Bernanke prints, and it looks like that will be alot. His assessement of the Great Depression was that they didnt print enough money...Bernanke has no gold peg restrictions on this and he intellectually believes that printing money creates "postive inflation"...he ll destroy the USD eventually. The danger is when foreigners sell US debt, and when the bond market bubble bursts, then yields will soar, the USD will collapse, and the debt financed economy will collapse. Then a real recession will hit.
  8. junglesoup

    U.S. Dollar on a roll

    The FED are the most inept,incompetent,ignorant central bankers. They have been one of the main source of all the problems the US and world economy is facing. Bernanke has spent his whole career learning about printing money...I quote you a 2001 paper by Bernanke on deflation. I have done a research paper on Bernanke which got some good recongnition online. You can read all his work at in journals...Here is what Bernanek wrote in 2002... Insane..now he is at the helm of the printing press. Quite an interesting piece and a coindence that just today that on a mainstream channel like CNBC that they have a piece and an interview saying that the real rate of inflation is or price rises is about 10-11%. How can the USD lose 50% of its value against many currencies over 7 years yet report 3% average CPI. Countries that have a USD peg report a CPI at between 8-15%, yet the US report their CPI at 3-4%? How can that be? How can countries that are pegged to the USD and have currencies that have been strengthening against the USD have a CPI 3 or 4 times higher than the the US CPI. If the US currency is weaker than the Singapore dollar yet Singapore have a higher CPI, how is that possible considering the US import 70% of its consumption needs. I m not asking for an answer as I know already. The CPI was changed in 1996 by the Boshkin commission, a government economist to design the CPI so that price rises would not show up. Hedonics, substitution, geometrics etc etc. Yet you only have to look at the value of the USD against real assets, tangibles like gold, platinum, oil, copper, wheat. YOu can only produce so much oil, and mine so much gold ina year, but ina fiat money system you can print an unlimited amount of confetti money. It is no coindence that since August 2007 since the FED cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2% that oil more than doubled. It is not that oil has went up in price(a symptom) it is that more money is chasing relatively fewer goods. The CPI can hide price rises, but look at real tangibles..this tells the real story. Even the DOW, the S+P and the real estate market have declined in real terms...they are down 50% in gold terms, and all other currencies...they are only up in USD terms. The Zimbabwee stock market is up 600% this year...but it is down in terms of real assets, and all other currencies. You also say that 99% of American believe the BLS CPI numbers. Thats not the feedback I m getting...when I hear countless news paper articles, radio phone ins with people complaining their cost living is going through the roof. I think very few believe the BLS figures. Same here in the UK...no one believes the CPI,..anyway...CNBC article and interview today... Real CPI 10%
  9. junglesoup

    U.S. Dollar on a roll

    This is nonsense this statement. There only is one type of inflation and that is monetary. Inflation of the money supply. So what is the cause of actual inflation. I said three times now...that Price rises or the CPI are the result of monetary inflation, the true cause is the increase in money and credit growth. MOnetary growth causes price rises. The CPI is a con, a sham. No respected economist believes the CPI. It has been manipulated to under state inflation. It doesnt target credit growth and money supply. It might be accepted by the media and the government, but it is not accepted in specialist circles where economics are understood. The fact that you try to seperate monetary inflation with actual inflation whatever that is suppose to mean shows a distinct lack of understanding... This is an easy to understand version of the flaws of the CPI, if you want any long PDFs that totally debunk the CPI I ll send you them... Core Inflation
  10. junglesoup

    2008/2009 Football Season.

    Good day yesterday for the Arse...and Chelsea and Liverpool. Ferguson looked fuming in press conference. I would say that lambasting he gave the players yesterday will put an end for this season to any sub power performance by UTD standards... Walcott really starting to show what he can do...great stuff CS...Nasri looks good also. I just feel we need another player in midfield. Need to become tighter at the back also.
  11. junglesoup

    U.S. Dollar on a roll

    With respect, I know what the M money measurements are, and the CPI, and what is inflation.So you dont need to cut paste the first thing you googled for my benefit. I m not going to get into a tedious debate about this, and the nature of money. Most dictionary definitions are wrong in their def of inflation. Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary issue. You are saying CPI plays apart in inflation. It doesn't. The CPI only measures price changes, which as I said before are the symptom of monetary inflation, and not the cause. The CPI is a flawed method, especially since they changed out it was calculated in 1996. They use hedonics, substitution, geometric weigthings,seasonal adjustments, everything that will hide real price rises. The unofficial rate of "inflation" using the old method of CPI is between around 6-10%. My point is that M3 has been running at a very high rate, which has led to asset bubble after asset bubble. IF you want thinkin inflation has been running at 3.27% a year, then that is delusional. The CPI can hide it all it wants, and the BLS can under report it...but the true rate of money growth has been staggering. This is the root cause of price rises. Price rises are the symptom. Gold is up 300% since 2000, oil is up over 1000%, wheat is up 500%, copper, zinc,lead, corn,all up by huge amounts during this secular bull market in commodities. yet teh CPI is at 3% a year...it is a joke, and I dont think anyone believes the government numbers, aprt from the fact that many economists have shown the flaws of the methodology which is the CPI. M3 growth is a measure of broad money and credit growth has been running the printing presses like mad over the last few years. My original point is that M3 growth has been running at 10-16% a year in recent times. I guess if it is horseshit, then all the MBS, CDS and outstansing treasury bond debt, GSE debt is all an illusion. It doesnt exist. :smirk: I work in this now, and it is pretty much accepted that the CPI is not inflation. The media go on about oil inflation, wheat inflation, always looking at the symptom not the cause. They dont understand what part supply side markets, demand side markets, inelasticity of prices,monetary policy play in it all. You have cut an pasted some very rudimentary definitions. You are missing my point entirely. Find me some figures that say credit and m3 have not been running at double digit rates. Expect the USD will rally for a while yet,before the decline continues. There is nothing to support the USD fundamentally.
  12. junglesoup

    U.S. Dollar on a roll

    Sporty, I m not talking about the phoney CPI measure of inflation which is not a measure of inflation anyway.Price rises arent inflation, they are a symptom of inflation not the cause. The CPI measures price rises, and it does its best to artificially understate price rises. I m talking about M3 growth,MZM, or Austrian True Money Supply growth, which has been running at between 10-16% per year. So debt to GDP growth has been about 330%. For every USD of GDP growth, the US have added 4 USD of debt and liabilities. Check out about the 10th chart down on this page M3 growth This solultion to every crisis that happens by trying to prevent a recession is now finally leading to the crack up boom. Ludwig Von Mises says it best... "The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved" and... "The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market. But it could not last forever even if inflation and credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It would then encounter the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of circulation credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the whole monetary system" I think this is the stage we are entering now, which will play out over the next 5-10 years.
  13. junglesoup

    2008/2009 Football Season.

    Pretty good SJ...Thanks. Just been working away at things. What about yourself, are ya doin ok? I m sure you were a happy bunny end of last season...Anyway heres to a good season...Good to see the usual suspects are still on here...Look forward to some heated debate as the season gets started
  14. junglesoup

    2008/2009 Football Season.

    I reckon Sparky could do well there...alot of pressure on him all the same. Agree with Kev not being offered another job...perhaps when Capello blows it he will return as England manager Not too hopeful for Arsenals chances this year. I think this not buying players thing is down to not having the money, rather than wenger saying he doesnt want to buy success... Fantastic football against Newcastle all the same. However, I see us getting beat one nil away to Stoke still...and beating Chelsea or Man U, but Man U or Chelsea winning the league still... No faith in Liverpool also. Benitez much too negative... Hello again, longtime no speak.
  15. junglesoup

    U.S. Dollar on a roll

    I reckon your reasoning inflation Unit? This is true. Money has 2 main functions... 1. Acts as a store of value 2. Acts as medium of exchange. Well if you had 30,000 USD under the matress 20 years ago, and you dug it out to spend it today, it would certainly buy you a much smaller basket of goods that 20 years ago. Oil, housing, food, consumables etc... Central banks especially Greenspans and Bernankes love to print money, and since the creation of the FED in 1913 the USD has lost 95% of its value. Credit and money inflation has been averaging 12-16% a year in the US for a long time, meaning that every 5-7 years the number of USD in circulation doubles meaning that the roughly the purchasing power has halfed...I think this is what Unit is referring to?
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