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1.0710 EUR/ USD - When 1.1000?


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Says Peter1964:

Todays CNBC, the EUR is 1.0710 against the USD. Will it go further to 1.1000 and when?

 

When, nobody can answer. This can happen within a couple of days or not at all. Personally I believe that the Euro will further appreciate, at least as long as the threat of war in Iraq is looming. Once this threat is over, or in case of a war, this war is terminated in a short time, the US$ will gain its own old strength again.

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There is money to be made with dollars and futures! Iraq war is not going to happen. Every country involved and on the periphery is trying to take out Saddam to prevent a war. He is a walking target. Wait and see!

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I'm in the camp that the $ will see an immediate and relatively long lasting appreciation that will approach 5% to the Euro upon the event of a war. Course, all bets are off if the war is prolongued.

 

I can easily see the $ appreciating much further if Sadam does something stupid to harm the environment that affects the middle east and possibly europe and asia.

 

Money is sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how this plays out. When a commitment and resolution is in the offing then more money will be employed.

 

<<burp>>

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Says ib13:

I want to believe you & so do most other UK residents!

add to that US economy & the $ has been overrated for a while, so settling with saddam won't automatically bring the $ back in favor IMO
:dunno:

 

IMO once the outcome of the Iraq crisis is evident, US markets should stage a large rally. You have a ton of institutional money waiting on the sidelines that has to be invested(these guys bonuses depend on it). Don't forget you have a stimulus package that has to morph it's way through Congress. Also keep in mind that after Snow gets his affirmation as Treasury Secretary he will more than likely follow through with a strong dollar policy that the administration has been hinting that they want(something that O'Neil couldn't seem to follow through on).

 

I hope the temporary strength of the Euro will encourage Europeans to maximize their currency strength and purchase more US goods and services.

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Although the upcoming war with Iraq is weighing on the dollar, it has bigger problem than just Iraq. Check out the US trade deficit, buget deficit as a function of GDP, etc.. As a result, the USD has broken a five-year uptrend. (Note: Not even 9/11 put a dent on the strong dollar, so the uptrend breakdown is very significant) I would expect some sort of technical bounce up after the war, but then it would keep on sliding. Short USD, buy Euro and Gold.

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