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Investing in Thailand


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Kurt,

You are so right! A little time ago my non-BG girl friend and I toyed with the idea of an Internet Cafe with Langauge School above.

She has a BA and MBA but is stuck in a job paying about 25,000 THB per month.

I did some research and started to look for property to rent.

My GF phoned some of these places and got some sample rents. I went with her to view a couple, suddenly there were several intersted parties willing to pay over the odds to rent these addresses...... needless to say I am still looking and she works in the deadend job. This is Thailand mad.gif" border="0

I have worked in many places around the world including Czech Republic and for a time the Khyrghyz Republic, they were not 10% as "bigotted" towards foreign investment as these greedy little bastards.

The mentality of some is astounding, witness the number of empty offices you see around BKK, then try to tell a Thai landlord that surely some money is better than no money!!!

I am at present in England getting visas sorted and seeing my family but with the work permit news I'm hearing I may look elsewhere.

WOW..... sort of wandered off thread there a bit..... getting some anger off my chest I guess.

While I'm on the subject, her family are constantly urging me to "invest" in Orchid Farms, Golf Driving Ranges, Adventure Holiday Outfits, you name it I've been asked to chip in. I've thought very carefully about more than one of these but whenever I think of the 49 / 51 split I go have a Singha and come to my senses.

Bottom line is IMHO don't do it, they will f**k you over if given half a chance.

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IUYTRDE

I am LMBAO now, I am in England right now and I am thinking about the banks we have.......

HSBC..... Hmmm English bank????? NO.... it happened here anyway. In many cases foreign ownership is good.... the Thais won't even try it.

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"Just one example: do you think in your country it would be ok if the biggest banks would be taken over by foreigners or had foreigners holding 49% of the shares?"

Happens in the US all the time. Key is to guarantee competition so the overall cost of services and goods are competitively low, thus the consumers benefit. Problem with Thailand is that competition is extremely low, it's really a bunch of oligarchial businesses (markets are ruled by few companies whose profit is increased through price collusion or outright monopolistic manipulation of the markets).

While I don't think there will be a boom in Thailand's economy anytime soon, I do think there are a bunch of positive things going for it. Chuan respected the consititution and the creation of such things as the NCCC and the Election Committee or whatever is overseeing the elections. Additionally, the media has decent coverage of negative politics albeit a few folks are getting killed here and there. Thailand is still a very new democracy. As long as media remains relatively free then things should only get better, if slowly.

<<burp>>

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Just to get back on track a little I believe the first poster was talking about stocks. Now I am pretty sure the Bangkok Bank or Thai Airways will notlose money on purpose or fudge their books just because you put a few dollars into the stock market. The SET is pretty fairly valued at around 310 in the last few days. I can remember when I was working in Thailand in 1996 and people were starting to freak out when the SET index hit 1300. I think there will be a huge upside in Thai stocks in the future but how far in the future I couldn't say. Japan has been in a slump for over 10 years now but then again Thailand has a higher growth potential then Japan. I have some money in the market now but with a 3 or 4 year outlook.

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quote:

Originally posted by Nomad:

This conversation is converging with the liquor and guns topic. A little paranoia keeps you on your toes.

Just because you are parinoid doesn't mean they are not out to get you.

I heard this a few years ago; "want to make a small fortune in Thailand? Bring a large fortune". I think it still holds true with a few exceptions.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Responding to ""Just one example: do you think in your country it would be ok if the biggest banks would be taken over by foreigners or had foreigners holding 49% of the shares?"

Happens in the US all the time. Key is to guarantee competition so the overall cost of services and goods are competitively low, thus the consumers benefit. Problem with Thailand is that competition is extremely low, it's really a bunch of oligarchial businesses (markets are ruled by few companies whose profit is increased through price collusion or outright monopolistic manipulation of the markets)."

You are absolutely right. And to add another point: Thailand's biggest banks have not been taken over by foreigners.

The Chuan administration allowed foreign banks to acquire interests in a few very sick banks that had already been taken over by the government because they were insolvent. The banks were insolvent because they were poorly managed; in some of the banks, the largest loans (tens, or even hundreds of millions of dollars) had no collateral and had been made to businesses controlled by the same families that owned these banks. These families, usually Thai-Chinese (but Thai-Indian in one case) simply took depositer money and transferred it to their other businesses. The banks were a source of funding.

Even then, when the foreign banks were allowed to take controlling interests in the already nationalized banks, there was a hue and cry about foreigners taking over Thailand.

I don't know if it was in this thread or another that someone said that we will not see Thailand so prosperous in our life time that sanuking reaches HK prices, but you begin understand why when you start to closer look at how things operate here in the LOS.

Having said all of that, I do think there are solid business opportunities here, if you have a good idea, business plan and set things up right. The corruption and incompetence actually creates opportunities for those who are not. I know plenty of farangs that have done well, but you need to be smart and disciplined.

[ June 21, 2001: Message edited by: RogerRabbit ]

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Feel the Farang bankers are really coming into some rough weather.

From the Nation June 12 issue, the central bank made a nice little $200 million US!!!!! profit in ONE day. The article did not go into how the central bank made US$200 million but it implies (and I believe) it is because it new it was going to raise the repo rate. If the central bank made $200 million, guess where it came from? hehe.

The guy that is now head of BOT is also head of the Asset Mgmt. Company that is going to buy and manage NPL's from Thai banks. Farang partnered banks are going to get it. The sophisticated foreign investors understand the current waters and have seriously withheld investment over the past six-months and you are seeing the result in the continual revisions of the Thai economy growth estimates. I believe an Australian bank just withdrew from a partnership from a Thai bank. You may see this happen with other banks.

Financial people are now verbally talking about stability in contrast to the thai rak thai policy of growth growth growth.

Hmmm, "stability" as the cornerstone. Does this sound like Chuan or even a bit like Tarrin (the previous BOT governor).

nahhhh, couldn't be.

You think market manipulation of stocks has been bad? Thailand is going to allow derivatives. I haven't seen the derivative regulations but I can guarantee you that some folks are going to go off the deep end. The financial companies may let these people go off the deep end. I bet farangs will get blamed that another thai company goes down very publicly due to farang manipulation of the derivative market.

<<burp>>

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You are right about more trouble to come on the economic front. The Singapore Straits Times ran an article earlier this week reporting that Thailand's revised growth rate for this year is a NEGATIVE 0.2%. It was reported today that NPLs went up for the second month in a row.

In contrast, under Chuan's government NPL's declined, there were some reasonable legal reform (although not enough, but politics is the art of the possible) and there was positive growth. But Thailand did not have the double digit growth that Thailand had grown accustomed during the pre-crash boom years.

Basically, almost every economic indicator has pointed toward down since it became apparent that Thaksin would be the next PM. And yet he is viewed as the saviour of the Thai economy. I will give this to Thaksin and his crew, they are true spin-meisters and PR pros.

One slight correction to: "Hmmm, "stability" as the cornerstone. Does this sound like Chuan or even a bit like Tarrin (the previous BOT governor)." Tarrin was the former Finance Minister; not the BOT Governor. Not a big deal, but just wanted to clear up that up.

Finally, looking further up this thread I found this comment: "And the foreigners screwed Thailand badly (not that the Thais weren't very helpful)." How so? By deciding to invest their own money elsewhere? This makes no sense, unless you buy into the Mahathir theory that the Asian financial crisis was caused by a zionist conspiracy led by George Soros. Speaking of which, the old loon (Mahathir) gave another speech today claiming that "Globalization's aim is to dominate the world through economic might" and that the Westerners unfairly claim that Asia's economic woes have been caused by corruption. There is no corruption here!!! Its just those "evil", and Mahathir used the word "evil" repeatedly in his speech, foreigners causing problems. Its looney tunes time!!!

[ June 22, 2001: Message edited by: RogerRabbit ]

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  • 2 weeks later...

quote:

Originally posted by coquetislander:

A little time ago my non-BG girl friend and I toyed with the idea of an Internet Cafe with Langauge School above.

I believe you were lucky no place was available for rent for you. In the last year I have seen so many internet cafes dissapear. Hardly surprising when you're grossing 25/30 bhat an hour. Seems like a loosing disposition to me!

Cheers,

SOONGMAK

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Soongmak

Maybe not if you're going to have a language school you'll need a recepionist and some computer equipment, makes sense to double the usage of the equipment.

We would also have photocopying, digital photo booth, drinks fridge, translation service, maybe some books.

I think it would work but as soon as they see a farang ....... you guessed it ......rent goes up.

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