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bang for buck?


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Not much relationship between the level of the baht and political instability so long as it remains non violent.

 

Baht pricei s determined by money flow.... and has been stronger this year and we have had substantial net inflows of foreing money into the stock market. And this is not including the $1.8bn of so that came in to buy SHIN shares....

 

Actually the Baht is the same level (to the $) as it was one year ago.

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MadStockBroker said:

Actually the Baht is the same level (to the $) as it was one year ago.

It was trending to a weaker baht 4Q05, then the abrupt turnaround.

 

Bummer for me as I get paid in USD.

 

Oh well, not that big of a deal. But free money *is* nice :D

 

Cheers,

SD

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Now that the holidays are over and the foreign influx is starting to taper off would that not be another reason for a positive trend for foreign currencies?

 

I noticed in the Philippines that when things began to get unstable that the piso would start a downward trend. Of course unstable there does mean a certain level of unrest and violence.

 

With the influx of American troops for the various exercises the past two months it seems the piso has recovered strength against the dollar.

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Still some strength left in the Thai Baht

 

Here is a graph (if you go to the link below) of the THB since July of last year. See where the price and indicator cross over the yellow line ? that?s called a trendline break of the second shoulder in a Head and Shoulder formation (also known as a ghost). In other words expect a second round of the Rally in the THB to continue for a little while yet. (probably another point in it or so over the next month or so without too much upside - 40 is the ceiling for now.

 

In Elliott wave theory (5 point move) Wave 1 started mid Novemeber (because everyones going on holidays to Thailand at that time?), New years day pulls back to end wave 2. In Elliott wave ? wave 3 is the most explosive and down it went until it pulled back to wave 4 which ended in Early February. Wave five is underway and the 2006 low of 38.81 (as I type its 39.27) is looking like it will get taken out at some stage over the next month or so before corrective waves ABC begin (Up, down, Up). Buy Baht now as there is some strength still left in it and make a quick scalp .....err... just this once :xmascheer

 

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thanks for the graph surebet...its, erm interesting.

 

 

But I'd be shifting some of my THB millions the other way, since it's gained about 10% against the GBP (and AUD) since september (from 75.7431 to 68.4111).

 

Surely time for it to drop back, or am I missing something....

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  • 1 month later...

Feb. 17 th, 2006

surebet said:

probably another point in it or so over the next month or so without too much upside - 40 is the ceiling for now.... Wave five is underway and the 2006 low of 38.81 (as I type its 39.27) is looking like it will get taken out at some stage over the next month or so before corrective waves ABC begin (Up, down, Up). Buy Baht now as there is some strength still left in it and make a quick scalp

 

Did anyone catch that move?

 

All of last week the Baht was doing another mini "head and shoulders" (started on March 21 st) - which indicated another rally in the THB -a move which took off on Monday and Tuesdays big fall was the result of that (I wish I could post charts on here but I dont know how). See some profit taking and consolidation at these levels (38.27 as I type) as their is a "hammer" reversal formation beginning toi form on todays Day charts (it will be clearer by tommorrow) that indicates a potential price pause at this point. Waiting for the next move.

 

PS Victor Niederhoffer was one of the world?s best-performing hedge fund managers, then he lost it all......betting the ranch that the THB would rally (it fell)....read all about it :

 

http://db.riskwaters.com/public/showPage.html?page=104767

 

Moral of the story - be careful with the THB and currency trading in general.

 

 

 

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