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Stickman

Confidence in the Thai Economy?

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This is *exactly* the sort of thing I am talking about. In with one regulation and then a harsh response results in them overturning it 24 hours later.

 

Investors' confidence has already been slashed...

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This is *exactly* the sort of thing I am talking about. In with one regulation and then a harsh response results in them overturning it 24 hours later.

 

Investors' confidence has already been slashed...

This had more do with investors trying to lock in rather large double dip profits (rise in SET, rise in baht) they had made over the last couple months. Reminds me of the "Crash of '87", I made more money that year than I thought possible in one year on the stock market.

:o

TH

 

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I recently met a lawyer about starting a small business in Thailand. As many of you know the rules for a foreigner are at best silly and totally counterproductive to their economy. After trying to explain all the rules to me for a few hours he concluded: "You could just fly under the radar" wink, wink.

 

Very sad and frustrating when you want to do it legal and above board. :banghead:

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More bad news on the way. On 27 December, the Thai government is expected to announce a retroactive change to the Alien Business Law which will make the preference share structures foreigners generally use illegal.

 

A Europeon diplomat estimated that there 14,000 companies using such structures; The Nation estimated 100,000 companies. In brief, no one really knows, but a lot.

 

The Thai economy is not doing well. Regionally its performance has been poor. GDP figures are down. Bad debt is (unofficially) increasing.

 

It is this last development that has me the most concerned. The 1997 financial crisis occurred because of bad debt. Banks were not lending on a commercial basis, but on the basis of connections. You can extend the terms, but you cannot do this forever.

 

Thailand was supposed to seriously reform its finaancial sector, principally by opening up that sector to international competition and adopting international standards. It agreed in principle to do so, did a bit at the beginning, and then reversed direction. The bad habits returned.

 

The investment and banking community know this and they remember what happened, and they will view the latest 'administrative move' by the BOT in light of what happened before and what is happening elsewhere in Thailand.

 

Will there be another crisis? No idea. But 2007 will be an 'interesting year'.

 

I could and probably will post more on this, but I am exhausted. This latest move had in the office before 6 this morning and, except for a 15 minute lunch, I have been at it until now. I am beat.

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How can you have confidence in a country that doesn't know what they're doing?

 

I just read Bloomberg, and called a friend who is still at work. Bloomberg is right (at least right now - who knows what the policy will be in the morning.) This is amazing.

 

About a thousand thoughts come to mind, but I will wait a bit before saying anything more. Absolutely amazing.

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Um Worrisome... Sad as Thailand demonstrates its

amazingly poor monetary judgment policy.

One day this and one day that.I am visiting my elderly Mom for xmas outside of LOS...No way to check my account...

 

Is it safe to assume that funds in Thai banks before Dec 18th are available? Seems so but maybe they will change there mind on that as well.

 

Khnuckleheads... :crazy::crazy:

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Hi,

 

One of our clients tried to send money to our account today and where told 'that because of the situation in Thailand the money can not be sent in Thai Bhat'

 

Could this be related?

 

Sanuk!

 

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