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junglesoup

Warning to everyone, HIV test came back positive...

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my mate went to pattaya and slept with 37 girls .,, i told him he was crazy!.

im sure there is more in life than sleeping around.

 

37 girls ? THAT"S IT ? Ehehhe :)

 

Have you heard any news from him since?

 

Encourage him to get a blood work. Hope he's fine

 

 

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Maybe I'm ignorant (math not my strong suit...), but is there any statistical difference between sleeping with one partner with a completely unknown history (well, not unknown - a p4p pro) 37 times, and sleeping with 37 p4p pro partners one time each? Aren't the odds the same, either way? Like flipping a coin 37 times vs. flipping 37 coins once each = same odds?

 

This is not to say one shouldn't take precautions! Just to wonder whether perceived 'safer' activities are actually any safer in reality.

 

cheers,

 

YimSiam

 

 

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JS,

 

Your post made me realise that my decision to be a GTG is correct and prompt in this world.

 

Also, a full blood work before sexual intercourse for 3 months is nescessary for every couple, esp. potential marriage couples.

 

How about blowjobs? :dunno:

 

Nana freelancers are a much riskier bet than your average shag. Even so, JS was unlucky. On a one-off encounter with such a girl, a bookie would still have given pretty high odds for him contracting HIV from it.

 

There are some nice public confessions and promises from various people to change and reconsider their lifestyles but I don't believe it'll last long. It's human nature.

 

HIV's been around for over 25 years already. I don't see a GoodThaiGirl chaste world yet. People didn't stop having sex at the worst of times so I don't think it's going to happen any time soon.

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all the best man, i had symptoms of a deadly genetic disease some months ago and went through all the tests. even though i didnt have it in the end this experience absolutely changed my life.

 

think positive and even though this might sound bizarre take it as a chance to change your life.

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>Maybe I'm ignorant (math not my strong suit...), but is there any statistical difference between sleeping with one partner with a completely unknown history (well, not unknown - a p4p pro) 37 times, and sleeping with 37 p4p pro partners one time each? Aren't the odds the same, either way?

 

Not the same at all. Briefly if the incidence of HIV was 1 in 100 (its not, but as an example) - sleeping with one girl 37 times would give you 1 chance in 100 of getting it. She either has it, or does not have it, and sleeping with her multiple times would not change that (for simplicity she is not shagging elsewhere).

 

Sleeping with 37 different girls gives you the chance of 37 times 1 in a hundred or 37/100 or 1 in 3 as near as damn it. Much higher odds.

-j-

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I agree with your general point if you are talking about the odds of sleeping with an HIV positive person as opposed to actually becoming infected with HIV. For the odds of the latter I think the calculation would be a bit more complicated because even if a male has unprotected vaginal sex with an HIV positive female, the odds are considerably less than 100% that the male will contract HIV from a single sexual encounter, however, each additional such encounter would obviously increase the odds.

 

(Note: Not advocating having unprotected sex.)

Edited by Guest

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The only problem is that general statistics don't apply to individuals. It can always hit YOU, regardless how small the probability is.

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Applied statistics represent the probability risk of transmission so it does come from the summation of individuals so I believe it is very important to be aware of what the risk factors are and the numbers that have been calculated for that risk...

 

HIV is not as easy to get compared to another bllodborne pathogen like HBV. JS was extremely unlucky as none of transmission links were broken or imparired enough not to prevent a sucessful transmission...

 

From my days as an EH & S manager, I remember for HIV contaminated needlesticks (in a healthcare setting) had a transmission rate of less than 1% and HBV was in that 3% to 4% so just because one is exposed to contaminated blood or secretions does not mean anything close to a linear relationship. Transmission is in fact quite low but that still doesn't mean one should let down their guard; transmission does happen to the unfortunate as it depends on so many factors involved (susceptible host, virulance, infectiveness of the agent in question, means of transmission, etc)...

 

CB

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I agree. The transmission rate of 1 in 2000 for a man through heterosexual sex is an average. That range can be anything from 1 in 10 to 1 in 20000. If you come into contact with someone who has been infected in the last few months then transmission is quite possible. On the other hand if someone with HIV has undetectable viral load or very low viral load in their blood the likelyhood of transmission is then quite low...of course if you have NSU, ghonherrea,chancroid, sores, thinning skin and you come into contact with someone who is in acute phase of infection then the odds can be as low as 1 in 5.

 

You never know if you will be one those people in the 1 in 100, 1 in 5 range or the 1 in 5000, 1 in 2000 range.

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I agree. The transmission rate of 1 in 2000 for a man through heterosexual sex is an average. That range can be anything from 1 in 10 to 1 in 20000. If you come into contact with someone who has been infected in the last few months then transmission is quite possible. On the other hand if someone with HIV has undetectable viral load or very low viral load in their blood the likelyhood of transmission is then quite low...of course if you have NSU, ghonherrea,chancroid, sores, thinning skin and you come into contact with someone who is in acute phase of infection then the odds can be as low as 1 in 5.

 

You never know if you will be one those people in the 1 in 100, 1 in 5 range or the 1 in 5000, 1 in 2000 range.

And then you have to multiply those odds by the odds of anyone having the disease and then by your susceptability to contract it and you end up with mind bogglingly small percentages which show just how unlucky you are.

 

Keep your chin up.

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