Jump to content

Economical situation in LOS???


drogon

Recommended Posts

Reading the Bangkok Post and the Nation.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/06/03/headlines/headlines_30074639.php

 

Seeing too that the government does not seem to know (or do they try to hide the reality?)

where the local economy stands.

 

I would like to ask the local expats.

 

Do Thais people you know (I am not talking about the very wealthy) feel that life is really getting expensive?

 

Do you, yourself, feel that the cost of living is rising dramatically?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 140
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The economy in Thailand is very strong now. Sure it has problems with petrol and diesel prices but that will be compemsated by the rising rice price. So IMO 2008 will not become a crise (even if Gadfly has predicted that for more than year).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First time since many years Thailand posted last month a huge budget deficit. This trend will continue and will put more pressure on the Baht. The weaker Baht will make imports more expensive, including oil. Also the inflation is a big concern. At the moment the outlook is bleak. The political uncertainty - military coup or new election? (with probably the same outcome again) doesn't help.

Our company - a multi - has just decided not to expand as planned.

Didier

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, seeing as my wife and her sister have their own restaurant I know full well that prices are skyrocketing lately here. Rice up quite a bit (GradeA Hom especially), the cooking gas is up, pork is way up, chicken, cooking oil, everything is up and it all went up the past 2 years pretty quickly and steadily, even more so recently. Gasoline/deisel costs more here than in the states, about a dollar more a gallon. So, the cost of transport is up, sending the cost of the things being transported up. And, not much in way of wage increases really. Until last season the rice pickers got 100-120 baht a day picking and planting rice. They now demand 150 baht a day. Some farmers are returning to using water buffalo to plow their fields because their margins are so thin they cannot afford the fuel to use the mechanical tractor. The money being made on rice this year is being made by the middle men and higher. The farmers are not getting more for their rice. Personal/family debt has what, quadrupled the past few years here? I doubt many will be able to pay it back.

 

The prices for food served in our restaurant went up this month, second time in the past 12 months. Had to, as every single item used has gone up in price, considerably. They no longer use the best rice like they used to, but one grade below to save money. Same portions. Even eggs have gone up. I think 1 baht each, but that is like a 30% rise. Corn on the cob though for some reason is still pretty stable. I got a couple dozen ears the other day for like 30 baht.

 

Oh for the days a few years back when the government was still subsidising the deisel fuel! It was very inexpensive then. Now, 40 or more dollars to fill the tank. If you don't think the less well off Thais don't feel that then you are dreaming. A big difference it is. Even the middle class is complaining, and they have decent paying jobs and benefits compared to many.

 

I think, like another member here, Gadfly, that it is all a house of cards and will soon fall. The recession in the US has yet to reach the rest of the world full bang. It will, and it won't be pretty for a while. If oil hits 200 dollars a barrel, like many are predicting, it will be bad. If the VN Dong problems spread to the rest of SEA, as some have said recently is possible, then I'd think Thailand will have serious problems.

 

And the middle class is carrying a lot of personal debt. I hear about what these families are doing almost daily. Hand to mouth now. Many have the limit they can get on credit, maxed.

 

It's all a house of cards and it just remains to be seen when the ill wind will blow it all down once again.

 

Add to all this the political crisis once again raising its ugly head. Interesting times are ahead I feel.

 

Cent

 

p.s. Doom and gloom? Maybe. We'll see I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Nation

Today

Link

 

 

STATE OF THE ECONOMY

Inflation at 10-year high

By Anoma Srisukkasem

The Nation, Agencies

Published on June 3, 2008

 

 

May rate of 7.6 per cent forces BOT to revise its forecasts

 

 

Thailand's inflation rate soared to 7.6 per cent in May, the highest in nearly a decade, due to the unrelenting rise of oil prices.

 

 

According to the Commerce Ministry, May inflation was the highest since August 1998, prompting the Bank of Thailand to announce it would revise its economic growth and inflation rate forecast for the year.

 

 

"The BOT will revise its forecast of economic indicators again as oil prices now have already surged higher than the worst-case scenario," BOT senior director Amara Sriphayak said.

 

 

The central bank forecast for GDP growth in 2008 is currently 4.8 to 6 per cent. The central bank also forecast headline and core inflation for this year at 4-5 per cent, and 1.5-2.5 per cent, respectively.

 

 

Amara said the inflation rate is a cause for concern as oil prices are rising continually. Currently, however, the central bank considers an equal risk between growth and inflation.

 

 

"Higher inflation and the rising cost of living because of oil prices makes people more cautious about spending money," Bloomberg quoted Kasikornbank president Prasarn Trairatvorakul as saying.

 

 

Consumer confidence, which fell for the first time in six months in April, may decline further in coming months as oil prices increase, said Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.

 

 

According to Bloomberg, Indonesia's consumer prices rose 10.4 per cent in May from a year ago, while India's inflation has accelerated to its fastest pace in more than three and a half years.

 

 

The Thai government also asked four refineries controlled by state-owned PTT to cut diesel prices for six months to ease inflation.

 

 

"The ministry will look at all products to see what we can do to reduce the public's burden," Bloomberg quoted Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Siripol Yodmuangcharoen as saying.

 

 

The inflation rate in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, may be as high as 5.8 per cent this year, up from 2.3 per cent in 2007.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was living in LOS then (92 - 99).

 

Very quickly new work dried up and my existing clients wouldn't pay their bills. I couldn't pay Candyfloss anymore, so he shot the crow to Dubai and my Psoriasis went haywire so I locked the office door and went to Samui for a month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I first came for a weeks holiday in 97 before the shit hit the fan - thought it would be great to live here.

 

First Sunday was drunk - midnight - coming along Suk in a taxi drunk from discovering my Thai artist friend could drink better than me!

 

Non stop traffic jam for most of suk - midnight sunday!

 

And ironically was back a few months later for a work visit - but the shit had hit the fan.

 

Next visit in Jan 98 - I think by then the Aussie was at a record high - you could park a car in Suk and no one would complain - car's for sale at ridiculous prices.

 

By 2000 it had turned itself around - and has gotten worse/better ever since

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...