Thai GDP 2010 outlook 4.3% to 5.8% growth

[Coss]

Whilst the chaos continues...

 

Thai Link

 

U.S. real GDP is expected to increase by 3.0 percent in 2010 as a whole.

 

US Link

 

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has adjusted its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2010 to between 4.3 and 5.8 per cent, up from the earlier forecast of 3.3 to 5.3 per cent, Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, assistant governor for monetary policy at the central bank, said on Thursday.

 

Mr Phaibul confirmed that the new expectations for economic expansion had already taken into account the negative impacts of the continuing political turmoil.

 

He said the political impact would trim GDP growth by about 0.9 per cent. The central bank added that it is probable the 2010 GDP will expand 5.0 to 5.5 per cent.

 

The assistant governor said the impact of political uncertainty would be clearly seen in the second quarter of the year, reducing the growth rate for the period, earlier projected at eight per cent.

 

He also expected the tourism sector would experience a contraction of seven per cent over the remaining three quarters, from a previous projection of a 4 per cent growth.

 

Economic indicators showed that the economy continued to rebound in the first quarter of the year. This was boosted by increasing in exports, industrial production capacity utilisation, employment, farmers’ income and the confidence of consumers and manufacturers.

 

Mr Phaibul expected an average inflation rate for this year of 3.3 to 4.8 per cent and 2.3 to 4.3 per cent next year.

 

The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, would be 1 to 2 per cent this year and 2 to 3 per cent next year, he added.

 

Meanwhile, Sathit Limpongnpan, permanent secretary for finance, said the GDP for the first quarter of the year would likely show growth of eight or nine per cent.

 

“Exports were a main factor that helped boost the economy over the first three-month. It is clear that the Thai economy continues to improve, both in terms of exports and domestic spending,†Mr Sathit said.

 

The problem of political uncertainty had only a minimal impact on the first quarter’s economy.

 

“But there was a sign of deceleration in the declining number of foreign tourists. If the political turmoil is prolonged it would definitely slow the rate of economic expansion in the second quarter,†the finance permanent secretary said.

 

[jitagawn]

Right ...that we would believe any central bank let alone here in LOS.

Meanwhile back at the ranch my Thai friends who are pretty high on the biz chain expect it to go down.

...

[Nervous God]

So the reds aren't causing the depth of economic disruption we thought? I find that hard to believe.

 

Right or wrong this has to be hurting the economy more than they sure, surely????

[Wallenda]

Well according to these numbers, apparently it's HELPING the economy.

[colorwolf]

it must be!

growth will be strengthened further once the UN peacekeepers arrive from bangladesh, Zimbabwe and uruguay...

[cavanami]

The big corporations will continue to pump out the products.

Cars will roll off the assembly line, as well as hard drives and all the other items made in LOS.

The Red Shirt protest is disrupting the lives of the "average" Somchai in LOS, not so much the Thai hi-so and large corps, IMO.

[Hardy641]

Economic figures in Thailand looked good for 2010. I believe this is a key reason of the redhirt chaos we are facing now.

 

Thaksin knows very well if the economy would have really picked up, Abhist would become soon popular and people would have forgotten about him.

 

Thus he had to act and create chaos to prevent the economy doing well.