Good Commentary Coming Out Now...

[bust]

DS you need to put it in perspective though.....remember you are part of the "Rural Elite"

 

5555

Just cos I use the Range Rover to pull the plough and employ scantily clad 19 yo "virgins" to plant my (Rice) stalk...proves nothing

 

When you said I got a RR Sports with 19's I thought you meant the wheel size.

[simie]

 

you obviously dont spend much time upcountry in isaan area ,just ask anybody and you wont find any yellows but a rabid hatred of the present lot and gleefull smiles at the mention of Thaksins name.

if you mention his shortcomings they are glossed over and he is still the good old boy that everyone loves .

 

Not the case at all, in my wifes village they are split between red and yellow. Even amongst the same family you will often find some for red and some for yellow.

Simie.

[Coss]

My Wi Mee and familee are Takkyphiles but not so keen on the reds anymore.

[Dumsoda]

 

Agree...same same

 

This is becoming more and more common with every day that passes...

Just from my observations...that is!!

 

...But what would I know...I just live here...in the supposed "heartland"

 

Might have to buy them all...new shirts soon....farrrrrk...more expenses

[Flashermac]

My Mrs supported the call for elections and wants an end to military interference. But she is not at all a Takkyite. She said to me, "Thaksin isn't important." And as I've mentioned, she spent 3 days at the red camp at Rajprasong!

 

 

 

[ThaiHome]

Maybe it is a good time to review the facts of the past 10 years or so of Thai politics. I’m afraid it is very long.

 

The TRT Party was formed in 1998 and was composed of about 11 factions that Thaksin brought together under the umbrella of the TRT. These factions were mainly centered in the North and Northeast, but did include factions from both Bangkok and Chonburi.

 

2001 Election.

The 2001 election was held on January 6 2001 to elect 500 seats to House of Representatives, 400 by direct election where each person voted for one constituency candidate and 100 chosen on a proportional basis of votes received by each party. 9 parties contested the election.

 

Some 28 million people voted with the TRT getting about 11 million or 40% of votes and 49% of seats. The TRT then formed a coalition with the Chart Thai party headed by Banharn Silpa-Archa that added 41 seats, giving the collation a firm majority in the House of Representatives.

 

After the election, most of the other minor parties and the factions they represented were absorbed into the TRT giving it an outright majority without its coalition partner, leaving only 3 other politcal parties.

 

2005 election

With the addition of several factions since the 2001 election, the TRT got 14 million (56%) votes and handily won a majority of some 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives.

 

In the wake of the 2005 elections, concerns grew about the TRT and its goal of achieving one party dominance of Thailand politics. Comparisons were made to Singapore’s People Action Party and how it maintains control of the country. Discussions began in earnest on the weakness of the so called 1997 “People Constitution†and how Thaksin was exploiting them. I won’t go into details here, but if anyone is actually interested, here is a paper written in 2005 that explores these concerns.

Towards a One Party Government

 

 

2006 Election

In late February 2006, Thaksin dissolved Parliament and called for elections in April and was appointed caretaker PM.

 

His reasons for doing are subject to much discussion. He was facing a lot of criticism for his sale of Shin Corp. The PAD was doing street marches that were well attended. But I think the main reason was his own party was having serious problems keeping the many factions in line and by calling the snap elections, he prevented the disaffected factions members from joining another party or forming a new one because of the 90 day rule in the constitution which states a member cannot change parties within 90 days of an election. For more detail read this analysis from the Thai Day in January 2006. Less then a month after this was published, Thaksin called the new elections.

Thaksin Uses Shin Corp's Iron Rules to Control TRT

 

Here is an interesting discussion on 2Bangkok.com forum from 2005/6 on the TRT and the factions that made it up.

Link

 

In the face of the the TRT's control of the various factions and the prospect of a single party domination of the election, the 3 remaining opposition parties decided to boycott the election. The main reason for this was to take advantage of the requirement in the 1997 constitution that when running unopposed, a candidate must received 20% of the registered votes. The 3 parties then embarked on a campaign of encouraging voters to vote “no vote†and at the same time kept very close track of the TRT’s attempt to get people by various means to run against TRT candidates.

 

It was a very messy election and at the end, the TRT was unable to get a majority of the seats.

The results of the election:

29 million votes

16 million TRT (55% of total votes, just about the same as in 2005)

10 million No Vote

3 million invalid (ballot was defaced)

 

The election was eventually ruled invalid by the Election Commission in July, which told the caretaker PM to have elections in October. By the September, no preparations for the election had been made.

 

 

On September 19 2006, the military staged a coup, overthrowing the caretaker government.

 

 

2007 election

With defection of several factions to new parties (such as Sanoh and the Phak Pracha Raj Party and Suwit Khunkitti with the Phak Pua Paendin) the PPP in 2007 was only able to get control 48% of the seats. The formed a coalition with the 3rd and 4th place finishers to setup a government.

 

One interesting fact about the 2007 is the seating of party list candidates was changed in the 2007 constitution. Rather then being based on the proportion of votes by party, each voter chose a single party. Since the constituency election had voters selecting up to 3 candidates, depending on population of the district, many analysis consider this the actual popular vote. The PPP and Democrats were virtually tied in the proportional voting at about 14 million or about 39% of the votes. The Democrats were actually ahead by a couple of thousand.

 

When I analyze the results of the 4 elections, it appears to me that the factions making up the core TRT/PPP/PTP can deliver about 11-14 million votes or about 35-45%, depending on how many factions are in the party at the time. In the 2005 election, Thaksin was able to gain a majority, because he still had the original factions and had absorbed several others. By 2006, this was already coming apart, and with several dissatisfied factions not actively campaigning for him, even with no opposition he was only able to get about 16 million votes. In 2007, the rebel factions had defected and formed their own parties, reducing this down even further. If you think the proportional voting is reflective of the popularity, it was down to 14 million, but the Democrats had made huge gains to match that total.

 

In late 2008 with the defection of the “Friends of Newin†from the PPP into the BJT, the core factions of the [now] PTP has shrunk even further. In the January 2009 by-election the PTP was only able to win 7 of the 29.

 

What this means to me is that Thaksin only had a majority when he had lined up all the factions under the umbrella of the TRT. Once those factions started to defect, his ability to get the votes for a majority declined.

TH

 

[Nervous God]

<>

 

So this bit isn't true then you'd agree.

[Old Hippie]

My Mrs supported the call for elections and wants an end to military interference. But she is not at all a Takkyite. She said to me, "Thaksin isn't important." And as I've mentioned, she spent 3 days at the red camp at Rajprasong!

 

 

 

 

Yes but isn't an expat who owns a business so she obviously is wrong.

[khunsanuk]

Hi,

 

"Yes but isn't an expat who owns a business so she obviously is wrong."

 

Can we knock off the "you don't know what you are talking about because ..." crap?

Goes for BOTH parties in this, not specifically targeted at OH.

 

Sanuk!

 

[Old Hippie]

Ok sure.