Usa Thread

[Mekong]

2 hours ago, Flashermac said:

Coss, have we lost the personal message function? I can't find it anywhere on this "new improved" board. Even my old link to the board won't connect, and I have to google for it.  I notice there are very few new posts. Coincidence?

Meanwhile, since there's no Manchester thread ... pretend she's a Yank.

‘Worst airline passenger ever' Mum, 51, jailed for punching flight attendant in crotch

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/996812/Manchester-news-drunk-mum-air-rage-TUI-flight-Helen-Butcher

 

 

Not from Manchester if you please

 

At Manchester Crown Court, Butcher, of Ulverston, Cumbria was jailed for 21 weeks after she admitted two counts of assault by beating, being intoxicated on an aircraft and using threatening behaviour.

[cavanami]

18 hours ago, Coss said:

Trump = Racist 

Cavanami = Racist

Coss =

[Flashermac]

Here ya go, Cav.

 

 

[dean]

Trump’s chief lawyer at the White House has been cooperating with the Mueller investigation.  I wonder what dirt Paul Manafort has on Trump that Trump’s lawyer doesn’t have?

[Coss]

Most of it.

[Steve]

Seems things are 'normal' around here..lol. Omarosa's actions are not a surprise if anyone knows anything about her career. She's always been self serving and an opportunist. The question isn't why did she record private information and turned on the person and people she aligned herself with and helped her. The question is why was she given the job and access? She came to fame as a back stabbing, self serving person. She reviled in it and made a career out of it. If anything it shows bad judgment on giving her the job. 

For her to record things going back as she did, even when things were going well with her job with the campaign and administration also speaks volumes on what she initially saw for her to think she would need to record things. 

I will throw Trump a bone and say I completely understand and support his wanting to rectify America's trade deficit. Every country wants a positive trade balance. What I would question is HOW he is going about it. It doesn't seem he had a well thought out plan. But I do support the idea if not the actions taken. 

My gut feeling is nothing of consequence is going to come from the Mueller investigation. Not saying I don't want it to, just saying I don't think it will extend all the way to Trump. These things rarely find what they set out to. The Whitewater special counsel never found evidence to support the allegations. Clinton was facing impeachment on lying while under oath. Nixon was found to obstruct after the fact. Hillary was never found to be guilty of what the special council set out as well. She was alleged to have used a private server. So, its par the course of these kinds of matters that if Trump is found guilty of anything it won't be what the investigation was originally based on. Mueller is a smart cookie though. He is very, very good at his job. He may get one of Trump's sons and force Trump to pardon his own son. And in doing so create his own impeachment. Who knows what will happen but I am guessing it won't be bullet proof collusion naming Trump specifically. What is lost on most is that this is basically an internal (Republican) fight. Comey and Mueller are fellow Republicans. This isn't a Democratic party fight. 

I think Trump's possible unraveling may be the economy. The stock market is nearing record highs, unemployment is at an all time low..great, right? Well, we have been overdue for a massive recession, a bigger, nastier one than in 2008 during Obama's 2nd term. 2008 we had 1 bubble, housing. Now we have 4 different bubbles (housing, credit card, car loan and student loan) to contend with and frankly I'm surprised the tariff mess hasn't triggered it already. The economy is the only thing that can dislodge Trump I think. I don't see any Democrat who can win against him in 2020. I think Sanders would have won fairly easily in '16 but not so sure now. It would be close. 

 

 

 

 

 

[radioman]

As usual some well balanced commentary from CS. Have to say I agree pretty much with all of it in that it seems to fit with the only other minimal data points someone like me can have. Don't like trump (see what I did there) I think he's a twat and a horrible person, but that shouldn't preclude someone from running a country. So far I haven't seen that. All I have seen has been some giveaways to the masses and the special interests to keep them cheering and a few things that spike the numbers in, at least for the short term, right direction. No doubt trump has the 'nads', just don't think it's for the long term US good.

Saw a piece on the news about a guy building inflatable boats, good startup business, doing well. Designed in US but he gets all his material from China, of course. Said the first round of tariffs didn't affect him, second round made only a slight impact, third round is all but set to wipe him out. Can't buy US made cos what is available is priced the same as the now super taxed Chinese material and it aint getting any cheaper. He needs to up the price of his product just to stay afloat(sic) and then his customer base will likely all but disappear so then he's left high and dry (sic again) and another failed business. If that story gets repeated across 100, 1000, 10000 small business the knock on effect could be immense. Bummer.

 

[Coss]

1 hour ago, chocolat steve said:

nothing of consequence 

Your point is reasonable, in my view and I also think that Trump will be forced from office one way or another, and then he'll get hit by a huge raft of investigations that are 'not quite ready' but waiting on the shelf.

16 minutes ago, radioman said:

If that story gets repeated across 100, 1000, 10000 small business the knock on effect could be immense. Bummer.

What you said.

[Coss]

And the laugh out louds from Trumpville...

'Truth isn't truth': Giuliani  -  live on TV and called on it, whereupon he went into, old man confused mode.

-

Trump floats possibility of taking over Mueller probe: 'I can go in and I could do whatever, I could run it if I want'.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08/20/trump-floats-possibility-taking-over-mueller-probe-can-go-in-and-could-do-whatever-could-run-it-if-want.html

 

[Steve]

The (largely GOP) allegations that the economy was being propped in the Obama years is true. QE, qualitative easing, is simply the federal reserve buying up the shares of the companies that most affect the economy. CEOs whose compensation package is largely company stock, simply used profits to buy back the company shares on the open market, to increase their own net worth. Furthermore, American's prop up the stock market each month when they contribute to their 401(k) retirement accounts which buy stocks for the various funds.  7-8 straight years of economic growth during the Obama years with the debt we piled on and no real existing or new industry behind it all suggests collusion to keep the economy up. Reagan had the car and heavy industries make a return. Bill Clinton had the tech boom. What was the industry behind it all for Obama?  Obama did a great job, I'm not shitting on him. I trade on the side so I have to analyse the economy without emotion and listen to experts who are detached from ideology. He had to contend with the 2nd worst economic crisis in a century (and we were very close to it being worse than the Great Depression) and an opposition party that literally told him, we will not work with you under any circumstances. Which by suggestion includes anything that we think is good for the country. 

Trump and the GOP are taking credit for the same means they criticized Obama over, as well as also removing any regulations that were installed to stop an '08 type crash from happening again. We're going on 9 years of 'so called' growth. Unheard of historically, In America's greatest years economically this has never happened. The 'Roaring 20s' didn't start get roaring till towards mid decade, I think 1924 or so if my dodgy recollection from business school is anything to go by. There was a post WW1 recession that started off the decade. The '50s had early years when we overspent due to the Korean War. Anyway, this type of growth isn't normal at all and its evidenced by the facr the average American doesn't see it in our daily lives. Anyone older than a millennial has seen better years. 

I don't know if Trump's administration will end in impeachment though. The legislature is led by his own party. It's practically patricide. The Republicans during Watergate stubbornly fought impeachment the whole way till they just couldn't do it in the face of overwhelming evidence any longer and even then when Goldwater and senior GOP senators came to Nixon's office they told him he doesn't have all the votes. Not that he didn't have any, but just not enough, amazingly enough there were still Republican senators willing to vote not to impeach even in the face of clear evidence to the contrary. 

I don't think there are enough Republicans with a strong sense of ethics to impeach. On balance Republicans can make the same claim about Bill Clinton.

Anyway, i had a discussion with some other Americans where I am recently and was deemed a traitor to my country...lol..when I suggested that for the 1st time since WW2, the American president was not the most powerful person in the world. I suggested Xi of China is. I think he carries more weight globally than Trump. I don't take pleasure in writing this but I am simply trying to be as realistic as I possibly can. I think Obama and Xi were very close but Obama edged him out because of his relationship to allies. China has the far bigger impact economically though.  .With the current tensions between the U.S. (or more specifically Trump moreso than Americans in feeling) and Canada, the UK, Europe, Mexico, now Turkey, we are running out of friends. Countries don't necessarily like China, they like the idea of America far more than China I think but China is feared and economically flexing its power more. The new silk road scheme is real and growing. They run Africa. They have replaced America as the biggest trade partners of long time allies: Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia. They are expanding their markets while America aren't even hanging on to the ones it has. Global power is not all military. America surpassed the UK in GDP at a time (late 1890s, ealry '00s) when the Union Jack had a global empire and much larger Navy and military at the ready via its colonies and commonwealth countries. 

What makes Xi powerful is that there are not many consequences to what ever he does. Military options are a non starter. Economic ones will only hurt the ones doing more than China itself. Which countries are going to join a boycott or sanctions? The world's economy is truly global and symbiotic. While countries may and its a big ask, may have been persuaded by Obama  (and I doubt even that) because he was generally liked, with all due respect, who is going to form a coalition with Trump? What leader(s) are going to tell their people they are joining Trump on some economic crusade that will mean short to intermediate economic hardships? 

Maybe I have it completely wrong. Its just the facts as I see them but maybe I'm way off. I'd love to hear substantive evidence to the contrary.