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Hey Cav, from what we all know, at the very minimum he asked a foreign power to investigate a political opponent. That's illegal, no way around it. It breaks all kinds of campaign laws. Circumstantially, it appears 1. he withheld aid to force them to do it. Aid he was not empowered to stop. The aid is from Congress. The president can't stop it. 2. His personal lawyer was involved in it. Rudy said he was asked by the State Department. He said he has the message as back up. That's illegal. 3. The whistleblower's complaint, by law, is to be given to Congress and it was impeded/obstructed. The logical reason is it was at the behest of the White House which a formal investigation may expose. 

I know he's your guy Cav, but it seems very, very serious. I'm being as objective as I can on this. As I said, I thought Obama did an impeachable act as well as Dubya. 

I'm making the impeachment assessment purely on the law and the constitution as I understand (admittedly I'm not a constitutional scholar but some things are just plain and simple). 

Internally, the phone call was viewed as so improper it was given a priority by people in place by the current administration and assumed Republicans, within the system to notify Congress. 

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Breaking the law and getting convicted in impeachment are two different things. The House impeaches, the Senate has the trial. The first part will likely happen, the 2nd one, is 50/50. The Senate has 53 Republicans out of 100. 67 total votes are needed. Presumably all 47 Dems will choose to convict and thereby needed "only" 20 of 53 Republicans. The early rumor, by a Republican is that 30 may vote to convict.

My guess? Trump will resign if he doesn't have the numbers. Just like Nixon did. If this happens, a number of people will run, Romney, Pence, Rubio is my guess.

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Wot Steve said - and ::

Here y'go Cav

https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20190812_-_whistleblower_complaint_unclass.pdf

Here're a few pieces from it, for you to view, as it's more than a paragraph long, so difficult, for you to parse. and I've added note for each one to explain...

1.thumb.jpg.bc6fd3167b4d38dafb4f254304465c7b.jpg
Not Democrats, not Obama, not Clintons - Trumps own Staff.

2.thumb.jpg.a4d7aa2b9bdb267a88aa832aad5ad8fb.jpg
Faaarrrrrrk!!!   He did What?

3.thumb.jpg.2efa3bc4f5f982898cdc177d7f7322a7.jpg
So it's not just the investigation of the Bidens... Trump wants the Ukraine to take the blame, for Russian interference in the USA election 2016, and to help find and hide, the servers that  have proof this... And to do all of this with Giuliani, a non govt person, who is Trump's private lawyer, and also Barr who works not for Trump, but for the American people...

4.thumb.jpg.b2916bae907b5ab6ec1b07014d8d87fc.jpg

Quick quick, lock it down, this is fucked up...

5.thumb.jpg.12603fc2a56f1ffe8c755207a8fd4c6c.jpg

Please Mr Zelenskyy, just keep saying nice things about him and maybe he'll choke on a cheeseburger soon and we can forget about all of this...

 

The stupid thing about this is that Trump thinks he's done nothing wrong.

And there are classified bits blacked out in this document - this may be operational, but if you hold your computer up to a strong light, you can just about see, something about a piss tape.

 

And the thing that makes all this credible  https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2019-09-26/read-the-inspector-generals-letter-about-the-ukraine-whistleblower

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Coss, as you said, what is amazing is that Trump thinks the issue is benign! Amazing. Either he hasn't listened at all to his inner circle or they are too afraid to advise him properly. It's a clear cut case. No two ways around it. What the Democrats to about it is another matter. Pelosi, amazingly is restricting impeachment solely to this. No other impeachment in modern history (Nixon and Clinton) have been so restricted. The two prior ones opened up everything for investigation. Nixon's tax evasion wasn't related to Watergate, Clinton's perjury was unrelated to the original investigation which was unfounded. 

For whatever reason, Pelosi fears impeachment. My guess? She fears retribution of some sort. Someone has something on her. If the tables were turned I would expect the Republicans to make their investigation far reaching. Its just how its done, you don't pass up an opportunity to put the boot to the neck. 

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Steve, yes, I'll give Trump one thing, he appears to be not giving up.

Pelosi? maybe she knows she needs to focus the Twitterverse. Too many charges would be distracting and possibly limit what could be done to him, once he's not in office any more.

And this for Cav ::

Dan Coates was Director of National Intelligence until 15 Aug 2019, Trump appointed him, he bailed a couple of days after Trump made the call to Ukraine. 

Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, is also Trump's man, but not a stupid one willing to go down, for the orange bawbag.

"I believe that the whistleblower and the inspector general have acted in good faith throughout. I have every reason to believe that they have done everything by the book and followed the law," said acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, testifying before a key House committee.

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I also think its very possible, not probably but could be deemed probable at some point, the Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They are truly incompetent. Pelosi's restriction of the investigation will be about is a move in that direction. 

Politically, this will embolden the hardcore Trump supporters. Trump knows this. This will get the core of his base to come out and vote. Perhaps that's what Pelosi is worried about. I do think it will not work for Trump with regards to the middle. Its going to be interesting how this plays out. The obvious factors are what will be exposed. The actual vote for impeachment in the House and assuming its a yes for impeachment, the vote in the Senate and when this all takes place. My guess is the Republicans will argue successfully that if the vote is held too close to the November election it will be a campaign violation of some sort. That its an undue influence on the election. I don't necessarily agree but I can see the Dems agreeing to it. My view is it, happens when it happens in its own time. You don't unduly rush or delay justice. 

 

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God this is fun, I'm just watching someone from Trump's 2020 campaign, on Ari Melber MSNBC's show. He's floundering, a good talker, but already looking for another job.

Cav?  where are you? The ball is in your court.

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This may sound strange but the one person there is something very strange about is Pelosi. For Trump's whole presidency she has been muted, less combative given her position. I think something is up. She may be compromised in some form or fashion. It's the nature of the beast be they Democrat or Republican to take full advantage of your opposition. 

If she was truly about being above party and politics, and about working for the betterment of the nation I would applaud her but that doesn't seem the case. Everyone is acting according to type...except her. 

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