Jump to content

What if Pheu Thai Wins?


Gadfly

Recommended Posts

I am no Thaksin fan, but I am also realistic. And let's be honest: she is well in the lead and the election is not far away. So what happens to the nightlife scene here if she carries enough seats to form the next government? Right now, it looks like her party will carry a much greater number of seats than an other party. Perhaps even a majority.

 

Not that we can affect this one bit, but it's an interesting thought experiment since it affects a subject that presumably affects everyone on this board. How, if at all, does Thailand change? Guesses?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 61
  • Created
  • Last Reply

A lot of sound and fury, waving of flags, each side claiming to be more patriotic than the other ... and overall not much of anything. Takky will not get amnesty and he won't dare return. People would soon tire of Yingluck, who is even afraid to debate Abhisit - saying she is "too busy campaigning". Chaos as usual. The military will keep a close watch and Takky will make sure his clone doesn't push them too far.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprised more people are not asking this question.

 

Maybe this is not his last chance to return, but no sense in shelling out $$$ big time to win unless this is his plan. He's tasted the power and he clearly wants back in.

 

And once he's back, you think he's going to make the same mistakes as last time? Think he's going to forget about those that wronged him?

 

He's going to lock shiz down. He'll make the 2,000 extrajudicial killings last time look like a drop in the bucket.

 

Plenty profited from his turn in office, and stand to profit again. This time they know the stakes are much higher and will look to ensure this time they don't get ousted.

 

As yellow shirt protests fail, the military may step in, which means once again democracy fails.

 

Things are about to get ugly.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be more worried about what the grassroots members and left wing leaders of the UDD are going to do when they realize that they have been fucked over and abandoned and all it was really about was getting Thaksin back his billions that were confiscated.

 

It’s going to be hilarious (and there are going to be a lot of red faced UDD apologist) when the BJT makes the deal with PTP to get in the coalition and they still get to keep the Interior Ministry.

TH

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My taxi driver this morning was a fine example of the Issan mentality. After cautiously sounding me out and discovering I didn't immediately slag of Takky, he began giving me the red shirt line. I just sat and listened.

 

Abhisit talks well, he said, but he doesn't act. He actually compared Abhisit to Obama, which surprised me. The guy likes GW Bush - who "knew how to do things". "Americans don't like Bush, but Thais do." Bush, he said, is like Thaksin. He did whatever it takes. Thaksin is a businessman. Obama isn't and neither is Abhisit. A country needs a businessman as its leader (interesting when you considered that nearly 90% of US politicians are lawyers). Once Thaksin comes back, everything will be fine again. The economy will be booming and everyone will make money again.

 

He sort of made Thaksin sound like the Messiah. Wonder what would happen if Takky does return and the economy still sucks. Will the reds turn on him?

 

As we were going down Wipawadi Rangsit, I glanced at a Pheu Thai campaign poster: "Thaksin Kit, Pheu Thai Tham". Doesn't that give you a warm feeling inside ... just like the Borg. :p

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My taxi driver this morning was a fine example of the Issan mentality. After cautiously sounding me out and discovering I didn't immediately slag of Takky, he began giving me the red shirt line. I just sat and listened.

 

Abhisit talks well, he said, but he doesn't act. He actually compared Abhisit to Obama, which surprised me. The guy likes GW Bush - who "knew how to do things". "

 

I have also had similiar experiences...several times now. Once its established I am not a tourist and can speak some Thai, many taxi drivers will slowly push the conversation over to the elections. Many have very strong opinions, and almost all in favor of Thaksin. I often don't agree and have discovered that even trying to gently suggest that T had some serious flaws is counterproductive. I would guess about 90% of the taxi drivers who bring up politics are pro-Thaksin.

 

Same with BGs, but they are not as political. Or at least not with some guy who is buying them dinner, some wine, paying them a "tip" for services, etc. I don't argue politics with the people I work for.

 

The few yellow shirts I know are saying a militairy government would be better than Pheu Thai. They really believe the "common Thai" (people other than themselves) doesn't have the intelligence to pick the next Thai leader.

 

With Pheu Thai in the lead and the few yellow shirts I know having the attitude that Pheu Thai should not be permitted to run the government even if they get an absolute majority (I am assuming this represents yellow shirt opinion generally), I really wonder how this will all play out.

 

I don't think most Thais will accept another coup. And I also don't think many yellow shirts will accept a Pheu Thai government. I see some comments about this in the local press, but haven't seen anyone actually carefully look at the likely scenarios AFTER the election if Pheu Thai gets the most or an absolute majority of seats.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Interesting to watch PT's comings & goings from here in the Issan heartland

 

A couple of DS observations:

 

* There are obviously big bucks supporting the PT machine...one only has to stop by the "more up market" out of town Thai eating houses at lunch time.......Huge entourages.....and some quite expensive vehicles in the car parks

 

* The campaign posters took a "change of face" a couple of weeks ago.....Originally "Lil sis" was wearing a Black Jacket....and the local candidate,,,,a RED one....surprise...surprirse... NOW....new posters....Both wearing ...yep....RED jackets....and a large RED NO. 1

 

....reading the polls lately, I'm getting the feeling the Topic should be When.....not ...What if....

 

"Interesting" times ahead....maybe

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your continued references to “yellow shirts†is rather dated at this point as is your attempts to portray this as a red versus yellow conflict. Not surprising I suppose, as you seem to just eat this sort of simplification into standard western liberal versus conservative stuff up. Perhaps you mean Democrat Party supporters?

 

As I live and work among predominantly middle class Thais, I suppose I see much more of that perspective. At this point it seems to me they are resigning themselves to the PTP likely forming the next government. Most people I know think the Democrats have been hugely outmaneuvered by PTP. Many think Abhisit has been too nice and he should have worked on the link between the UDD and the PTP and all that implies much more.

 

Personally, I have never had a single one say “a military government would be better than Pheu Thai†nor that "common Thai" don’t have the “intelligence†to pick the next Thai leader (worth noting, in the Thai system, the “leader†is not elected by the voters, but by Parliament, a subtle difference that seems to escape many here).

 

I have heard many comments about the quality and ethics of members of Parliament that are elected by in the more rural provinces and the fact the several radical UDD leaders are on the PTP party list and could end up as cabinet members or Deputy PM’s/ That is indeed a scary thought.

 

For me, they are going to get the government they deserve. I don't think it will affect farangs living here for a while. After all, it took Chavez many years to turn Venezuela back into a 3rd world western hating country.

TH

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Certainly your average pro-Takky taxi driver wants more and more Farangs to come here. They will go on about how much money they made 5 or 6 years ago, as if Takky had something to do with the world's economy. To them Thaksin means money in their pocket. All the rest doesn't interest them. "True democracy" is simply a code for "We want Square Face" back and has nothing whatsoever to do with democracy. It is sort of the Thai version of the South Pacific Cargo Cult. :p

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...