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What if Pheu Thai Wins?


Gadfly

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I have that same feeling the Thais will get the government they deserve.

 

My personal concern is will they make the visa laws tougher for Brits staying here in revenge for the UK not allowing Thaksin back in? That was quite a serious loss of face for him at the time, and I think he tends to hold grudges, such as when he wouldn't earmark money to the South because they hadn't voted for him.

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I think there will be problems no matter who wins this election. Neither side will take losing lightly, and as we have seen both sides will do what they feel is right... for them, not the country as a whole. If Takky's clone wins the Yellow shirts will go nuts, as well as their 'backers'. If Dems win the Red Shirts are going to call foul and take to the streets in numbers and protest long and hard. I expect violence from either losing side. The election is an all around Thai SNAFU (Situation Normal All Fucked Up). I'll be in Bangers during the election for the US CoC 4th of July Celebrations. Should be an interesting weekend possibly.

 

Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Etc.

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Your continued references to “yellow shirts†is rather dated at this point as is your attempts to portray this as a red versus yellow conflict.

 

Where did that comment come from?? In one post I mentioned conversations with the few people I know who still describe themselves as yellow shirts. I don't want this to go off the tracks, but, when I read your posts, it's clear that you are not really responding to what I actually write, but instead responding to an imagined, straw-man, gadfly. I have never portrayed this as a red vs. yellow conflict. That is actually the exact opposite of my views. And where do these tired cliches about "western liberal bias" come from and what possible relevance do they have to anything I actually wrote (as opposed to what you like to imagine I wrote) or what happens after the Thai elections?

 

Returning now to earth and the topic actually being discussed in this thread, I certainly do agree that it's interesting that there is not more discussion about what happens after the election. For better or worse, a PT victory does look likely. I think someone here said "when" was the question - as in, not "if", but "when" PT wins - and I suspect he is right.

 

So PT wins again. This will be a tremendous embarrassment for some very powerful people. Will they let it happen? Can they prevent it from happening? I don't see how they can prevent it from happening without employing some very nasty measures.

 

It's going to be interesting here after 3 July.

 

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I would be more worried about what the grassroots members and left wing leaders of the UDD are going to do when they realize that they have been fucked over and abandoned and all it was really about was getting Thaksin back his billions that were confiscated.

 

It’s going to be hilarious (and there are going to be a lot of red faced UDD apologist) when the BJT makes the deal with PTP to get in the coalition and they still get to keep the Interior Ministry.

TH

 

Indeed, one thing is for sure, I will enjoy reminding certain people exactly what they said over and over...you know where and you know who :beer:

 

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And to reverse the question, "What happens if Pheu Thaksin" doesn't win? If it is an obviously fair election and Takky's clone loses, will the reds accept it? What will Takky do? He is certainly not going to accept defeat.

 

 

The reds have already said they will rally in response to a Dem's win. They have threatened it. I think that can be seen to mean they will make May 2010 look like a picnic.

 

The recent development of red shirt villages is an interesting one. It is almost as if they are forming an army, in preparation for something....!

 

Every piece of analysis by foreign observers suggests that post-election scenarios look bad.

 

If Thaksin wins an outright majority, as is looking increasingly likely, then he will have the mandate to do what he wants. He said he'll be back in December for his daughters wedding. Yingluck has also said this. Although she also said the amnesty isn't a priority, but 5 months until December suggests that in fact it will be something they are going to work on from the get-go. Unless a convicted felon is allowed to come and go as he pleases, totally ignoring the laws. Possible here I know.

 

The one big question is the army. Prayuth keeps losing his rag and there is this matter of the army shooting civilians last year, which is unresolved. Thaksin and his paid lapdog (Amsterdam) were previously giving it all the talk about justice for the red shirts. That rhetoric has changed of late, with Thaksin only talking about reconciliation (a catch-all phrase for nothing) although the lackey is still mentioning justice now and then, the frequency is a lot less now, but he mustn't alienate his support base (just yet) because he isn't home and dry. The obvious point is that with Yingluck/Thaksin installed, is the future Pheu Thai government going to investigate its own armed forces? Recipe for a nasty coup I'd have thought.

 

Thaksin's much hyped reconciliation (which is morphing into "justice panels" today...Bangkok Post...justice for some, not all it is said) appears to be the method by which he was going to avoid having to deal with the military, Prayuth in-particular. A kind of forgive and forget. However, Prayuth has just shown that isn't going to go quietly and seemingly wont be bought. All bets are off as of now. Prayuth is obviously very much against a Thaksin/Yingluck government. As I am sure are quite a few powerful folks.

 

So, what is the establishment going to do? A coup? A court case/dissolution? And then maybe the red shirt villages will be called into action.

 

As of now things are looking less than positive. It remains to be seen if Thaksin/Yingluck can appease the establishment, because they aren't at the moment. They need to do some pretty big deals.

 

 

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MyWiMee and all her friends went off to the temple in Auckland here yesterday and voted.

 

Unofficially, given the predominantly Isaan origin of the voters here, I can confidently predict that the seat of Auckland has been won by Pheu Thai.

 

Your correspondent, on the front lines, Coss.

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MyWiMee and all her friends went off to the temple in Auckland here yesterday and voted.

 

Unofficially, given the predominantly Isaan origin of the voters here, I can confidently predict that the seat of Auckland has been won by Pheu Thai.

 

Your correspondent, on the front lines, Coss.

That is a surprise....

Yesterday my wife also went to vote at the local temple, and there is also a large Isaan majority here, however the sentiment is definitely anti-red shirt.....

 

BB

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