ATO: The deal behind Thailand's polls

[BaronTT]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MF30Ae01.html

 

ASIA HAND

The deal behind Thailand's polls

By Shawn W Crispin

 

BANGKOK - High-level secret talks between Thailand's royal palace, military and self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra point towards a stable outcome to this Sunday's highly anticipated election. Contrary to widespread speculation of a post-poll coup and new rounds of street violence, the military is more likely to stay in the barracks if Thaksin's Puea Thai party wins and forms a new government.

 

Puea Thai has surged ahead in pre-election polls, holding sway in its geographical strongholds and taking the lead in pivotal swing constituencies. The party has rallied around Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, a political novice whose campaign has focused on the need for national reconciliation. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has acknowledged his Democrats trail in opinion

surveys, and party members seem increasingly resigned to a second-place finish.

 

It's a popular result the country's royalist establishment appears to have anticipated. According to sources familiar with the dialogue, Thaksin interlocutor Wattana Muangsook, Queen Sirikit's lady-in-waiting Jarungjit Thikara and Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan met in Brunei in February to discuss post-poll scenarios. There have been subsequent meetings between the three camps, including one in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, according to the same sources.

 

The talks have aimed to avoid new confrontation and foster reconciliation after last year's anti-government "red shirt" street protests and military crackdown resulted in the deaths of 91 people, mostly civilians. They also signal the potential building blocks of a wider accommodation between Thaksin's camp and at least one section of the royalist establishment concerning the looming royal succession from 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej to heir apparent Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.

 

According to a source familiar with the talks, the military has agreed to allow Puea Thai to form a new elected government unopposed in exchange for a vow from Thaksin not to pursue political revenge or legal prosecutions of top military officials behind the 2006 coup and last year's crackdown, and to refrain broadly from intervening in military affairs, including the annual reshuffle that determines the army's leadership. Army Commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha, a palace favorite and member of the elite Queen's Guard, is eligible to serve three more years in his position.

 

Thaksin's representative has also been pressed at the talks to rein in the anti-monarchy elements in his camp, including ranking members of his aligned United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group and Puea Thai party, according to the sources. Many royalists believe the UDD's overseas chapters are mainly responsible for the flood of anti-monarchy material that in recent years have been posted anonymously to the Internet.

 

Fronted by Abhisit's administration, the royal establishment's crackdown on freedoms in the name of defending the monarchy has undermined its international credibility and hit its domestic popularity, witnessed in the Democrat party's apparent flagging support among Bangkok's middle classes after carrying the capital convincingly at the post-coup 2007 polls.

 

The suppression has given some currency to Puea Thai's calls for democracy, despite Thaksin's own authoritarian record and the party's many highly placed gangster politicians. The Democrats have been at pains to counter perceptions that they have served at the military's pleasure, including by whitewashing its role in killing unarmed UDD protestors during last year's crackdown. Nobody on either side has been brought to account for the violence.

 

To put reconciliation efforts on a new track, the three sides to the secret dialogue have discussed the formation of a new independent commission whose recommendations, including a potential amnesty for Thaksin, Abhisit and the military, would eventually be put to a national referendum. Surakiart Sathirathai, a foreign minister under Thaksin and known royalist through his family connections, has apparently been agreed to lead the panel.

 

The election deal, which evolved over a series of talks, builds on an earlier accommodation reached with Thaksin in October last year. That negotiated de-escalation in tensions saw the UDD sharply circumscribe its protest activities, while officials stopped without explanation their earlier bids to extradite Thaksin from exile in Dubai. It also allowed Thaksin access to the 30 billion baht (US$1 billion) of his assets not confiscated in last year's Supreme Court decision that sparked the UDD's nine-week protest.

 

Meltdown scenarios

Whether the deal holds up after the polls will depend on several mutable factors. Judging by the frequent failure of previous informal and formal talks held since the 2006 military coup, the potential for another meltdown cannot be ruled out.

 

People familiar with the secret talks believe that Yingluck's campaign emphasis on reconciliation, and Thaksin's and UDD leader Thida Thavornseth's recent public pledges of allegiance to the constitutional monarchy, have deliberately signaled commitment to the deal. Nor have they rallied around jailed UDD co-leader and Puea Thai party list politician Jatuporn Prompan, who was detained after making comments perceived as critical of royal family during a UDD rally in April.

 

However, people familiar with the talks suggest Thaksin's commitment could falter once his sister and allies - assuming, as opinion polls suggest, Puea Thai wins the election - are firmly in power with a democratic mandate. His negotiating leverage, including for his own amnesty and political rehabilitation, will be significantly enhanced if Puea Thai wins in a landslide and is able to form a majority government without coalition partners.

 

Previous behind-the-scenes talks, including an April 2010 meeting between Bangkok governor and Democrat politician Sukhumbhand Paribatra and Thaksin in Brunei in the wake of protest-related violence that resulted in deaths on both sides, have seen Thaksin back away from stated commitments. Similar backtracking was apparent in May 2010 when UDD leaders agreed to dissolve their protest in exchange for early polls but reneged after Thaksin balked.

 

Just as significant is whether the royal establishment is unified in doing a deal with Thaksin for the sake of stability. It's unclear how King Bhumibol's royal advisory Privy Council would react to any reconciliation proposal that grants Thaksin amnesty for earlier court decisions, including a criminal corruption conviction, and allows for his return to Thailand. While both Prayuth and Thaksin have been vocal during the campaign, the Privy Council has been conspicuous in its silence.

 

It seems apparent that one side of the royal establishment is keeping its options open for another judicial intervention that could dissolve any Puea Thai-led government soon after it is formed. Thai courts brought down two Thaksin-aligned governments in 2008, paving the way for Abhisit's rise to power through what many believe was a military-influenced parliamentary vote. In 2007, a military-appointed tribune ruled to dissolve Thaksin's first political party, Thai Rak Thai, and ban 111 of its senior executives from politics for five years.

 

Democrat party politician Kiat Sittheeamorn intimated during a recent presentation to foreign reporters that his party would challenge a Puea Thai win on the grounds that Thaksin has illegally served as the party's leader as a banned politician. Puea Thai has campaigned on the motto "Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts" and Thaksin has admitted in press interviews that he personally has devised many of the party's policies. There is also a potential case brewing against Yingluck that may accuse her of perjury in one of Thaksin's asset trials.

 

Some political analysts read special relevance into King Bhumibol's speech last week to newly appointed judges, advising them to be vigilant and impartial in serving the nation. His previous speeches to judges have come ahead of pivotal court decisions, including ones that have gone against Thaksin and his aligned political parties. Although King Bhumibol is at present confined to a wheelchair due to health complications, a family member has said he is on a recuperation course to begin walking again by July.

 

King Bhumibol's upright presence is significant. A previous signature campaign organized by the UDD calling for a royal pardon for Thaksin fell on deaf palace ears. The Democrats have bid to leverage into that royal position and have campaigned on a "no amnesty" policy. Yet the three-way secret talks indicate that another side of the establishment sees the need for reconciliation with Thaksin's camp and has apparently lost faith in the Democrats' ability to protect the continuity of its interests after the highly revered King Bhumibol passes.

 

Earlier this year, there was widespread speculation that Prayuth could move to topple Abhisit to halt his early election plan. Others interpreted the sudden outbreak of armed hostilities with Cambodia in February as the military stoking a national security related pretext to subvert the polls. But while the military is widely viewed as on the ascendency, through rising budgets and policy independence, there are parallel indications of erratic behavior that show it feels more cornered than confident as it becomes more deeply entrenched in daily politics.

 

According to one military insider with access to top generals, Prayuth and his deputies view another coup as unviable due to the potential for a popular uprising and more bloodshed. Army chief-of-staff Daopong Rattanasuwon, who has been instrumental in army crackdowns on the UDD, recently indicated in private the need to co-exist peacefully with Puea Thai. The top brass, meanwhile, are reportedly "horizon scanning" for scenarios to burnish the military's public image and to step back from politics while maintaining enough power to intervene in case of a threat to the monarchy, including during the succession.

 

On one horizon is the idea that a deal with Thaksin could represent the best hope for containing the anti-monarchy sentiments unleashed by radical elements in the UDD. While Thaksin was accused of disloyalty to the crown by the 2006 coup-makers, his still close ties to heir apparent Vajiralongkorn could be leveraged to build popular support for the succession - rather than the other way around. The two have met several times since the 2006 coup, including in recent months in Munich, Germany, according to one Bangkok-based diplomat.

 

While the three-way secret talks point towards a smooth democratic transition and new hope for national reconciliation after this weekend's elections, there are still several potential dark clouds on the political horizon. The one thing Thailand's six-year-old political conflict has demonstrated clearly is that there are no permanent friends, enemies or deals, and thus new bouts of instability cannot be ruled out.

 

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.

 

[ThaiHome]

And here is her reply to the article:

 

Bangkok Post : Yingluck: Dubai deal

 

Yingluck: Dubai deal ‘a rumour’

Published: 30/06/2011 at 11:25 AM

Online news: Local News

Top list candidate of Pheu Thai Yingluck Shinawatra on Thursday morning brushed aside reports of a "Dubai deal" that paves the way for the party to form the next government, saying it was just a rumour.

 

Ms Yingluck said she had no knowledge of a deal and insisted that her elder brother, fugitive former prime minister Thaksin, is not involved in politics.

 

The Asia Times Online newspaper reported that Wattana Muangsuk, a list candidate of the Pheu Thai Party and former commerce minister in the Thai Rak Thai government, had taken Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to Dubai to make a deal.

 

Under the deal, the army would allow Pheu Thai to form a government in exchange for the Pheu Thai led-administration refraining from taking legal action against army commanders involved in the bloody crackdown on the anti-government red-shirt protesters in April and May last year.

 

The Asia Times Online said Pheu Thai had also agreed not to interfere with the military annual reshuffle in September and that Thaksin must direct those of his supporters who had attacked the high institution to stop doing so.

 

Mr Wattana also described the report by Asia Times Online as baseless, insisting that he had noy gone to Dubai with Gen Prawit as was reported. He admitted that he had made trips to Dubai to visit Thaksin because he was a cabinet member in his former government.

 

On the reports that on behalf of Thaksin, he had approached key figures of several political parties inviting them to take part in the forming of the next administration, Mr Wattana said that was also wrong.

 

“I don't have the charisma to do that. I believe there has been no discussion on the formation of the next government as speculated because all parties have to wait for the results of the election first,†Mr Wattana said.

 

Asked about the possibility of another coup if Pheu Thai forms the next government, Mr Wattana said it was just a story made up by his party’s political rivals.

 

He expected his party to win at least 250 House seats and possibly as many as 300 in Sunday's election. Even with that landslide win, smaller parties would also be needed in a coalition because a vase cannot have only flowers, fern fronds are also necessary to make it more beautiful, he added.

 

[Flashermac]

 

I presume Shawn Crispin no longer lives here, since he so freely talks about the royal palace. He got into deep doodoo with Thaksin when he mentioned a palace rumour that reflected unfavourably on the square faced megalomaniac.

 

Of course, Takky isn't here right now, but even so ... thin ice?

[BaronTT]

How much of what they say is truthful?

[Flashermac]

 

A lot of guess work, but educated guess work.

 

[Flashermac]

 

Wattana denies secret Pheu Thai-military deal

 

 

 

Pheu Thai party list MP Wattana Muangsuk has dismissed a news report that he struck a deal with Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to allow the party to form the next government without fear of opposition from the military.

 

The Asia Times online newspaper on Wednesday posted a news story saying former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had sent Mr Wattana, a former commerce minister in the Thaksin administration, to hold "secret talks" with Gen Prawit in Brunei in February.

 

Sunday's election, and seeking reconciliation after the clashes in April and May last year between the military and red shirt protesters led by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

 

Opinion polls suggest Pheu Thai has taken the lead in the election race over its main rival, the Democrat Party.

 

The report quoted sources at the talks as saying that Mr Wattana and Gen Prawit had reached a deal under which the military will not oppose Pheu Thai forming the next government.

 

In return, Thaksin and Pheu Thai have been asked not to seek revenge or legal action against military leaders involved in last year's crackdown on red shirt protesters that resulted in the death of 92 people.

 

Thaksin and Pheu Thai have also been asked not to interfere in military affairs, particularly the annual military reshuffle, and to rein in anti-monarchy elements in the UDD, according to the Asia Times report.

 

Mr Wattana said on Thursday that he did not meet Gen Prawit in Brunei and no deal had been reached with Gen Prawit as claimed.

 

He had no credentials to negotiate and make such a bargain. He only went to Brunei once, to visit Thaksin, Mr Wattana said.

 

Gen Prawit said he had never met Mr Wattana in Brunei. They talked over the phone sometimes, but never discussed politics. Gen Prawit was army chief when Thaksin was prime minister.

 

Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai's top party list candidate, dismissed the report as a rumour.

 

She said Thaksin had distanced himself from politics in Thailand and Pheu Thai was determined to press ahead with its plan to achieve national reconciliation.

 

[color:red]However, a Pheu Thai source said Mr Wattana had been trying to hold talks with the military to discuss the formation of a new government at the behest of Thaksin.[/color]

 

 

 

Bangkok Post

[BaronTT]

I was actually referring to Wattana and Yingluck. I would not trust much of what Wattana says and my guess is that Yingluck is being kept in the dark about a lot of things her brother et al are doing.

[Flashermac]

 

Yingluck says she phones her big brother twice a week. I suspect it is more than that. PT is wise not to let her debate Abhisit. He would quickly show her to be the absolute know-nothing she really is. Even so, I doubt it would change many votes. She is only meant to be a ventriloquist's dummy.

 

 

p.s. The Wikileaks have some interesting comments about how Thaksin lives in a fantasy world. He believes only what he wants to believe. He has always been surrounded by yes men who encourage that in him. Look up the US embassy reports from Bangkok.

 

 

[BaronTT]

I read and downloaded all of Bangkok Embassy cables which were published as of 2 weeks ago. But I tried Wikileaks today and it's blocked. I'm trying some mirror sites now.

[Gadfly]

I generally try to access wiki leaks when I am outside of Thailand.

 

Baron -sorry for posting the exact same story on the General forum. There is a much more interesting thread here. My comments:

 

1. Shawn did get into trouble here when Mr. T was in power. He has been here and following Thai politics for quite some time, although I believe he is in Singapore now.

 

2. How does Shawn know this stuff? My hunch is that he has a source (he refers to one) and that he is, perhaps, extrapolating a bit. But stories like this have appeared before, and it would make sense for there to be some back channel communications given the current situation. So even if some of the specifics are wrong, the general story line sounds plausible.

 

3. My big question: how can the military trust Mr. T in such a deal? What Shawn describes might be under discussion, but if I was a member of the military responsible for the coup in 2006 and certain subsequent events I would want some security and guarantees to protect my position. I am not sure what those would be, buts it's not like any of the parties to this deal - assuming there is one - can sue in any court if there is a breach.