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kamui

THE election result thread

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I think it is a good idea to put the discussion and collect all articles about today's (July 3) election in one thread.

 

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Here is the first info about the outcome:

 

Suan Dusit exit poll: PT clear winner

Published: 3/07/2011 at 03:36 PM

 

The Suan Dusit exit poll shows that the [color:red]Pheu Thai Party was the clear winner in the July 3 general election, beating the Democrat Party by a landslide[/color].

 

The result of the exit poll was revealed immediately after 3pm, when voting closed.

 

Suan Dusit staff were in all 375 constituencies nationwide, collecting a total of 157,759 samples between 8am and 2pm, the pollster said.

 

In the constituency system, the Pheu Thai Party was likely to win 247 MP seats, followed by Democrats with 107 MPs, Bhumjaithai 9, Chartthaipattana 8, and Palang Chon 4.

 

In the party list system, Pheu Thai Party was projected to emerge with 66 MPs, the Democrats with 45, Bhumjaithai 4, Rak Prathetthai 3, Chartthaipattana 2, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 2, Palang Chon 1, Rak Santi 1, and Matubhum 1.

 

In total, the Pheu Thai Party looked likely to get 313 House seats, the Democrats 152, Bhumjaithai 13, Chartthaipattana 10, Palang Chon 5, Rak Prathetthai 3, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 2, Rak Santi 1 and Matubhum 1.

 

Pheu Thai appeared to have 28 seats in Bangkok, 54 in the Central region, 49 in the North, and 116 in the Northeast.

 

The Democrats appeared to have 5 seats in Bangkok, 30 in the Central area, 18 in the North, 1 in the Northeast and 53 in the South.

 

The Election Commission expects the unofficial results to be known by 10pm.

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Maybe one of the current expats can explain something to me.

 

I admit, I don't know a lot about Thai politics - seems very complicated!

 

However, from what I can ascertain, Takky's party wins votes by being populist - giving the poor and less educated sectore of the population: 30 baht health care, a free sarong, a few bags of rice and free vet care for the sick buffalo or things to that effect.

 

If this policy works so well in obtaining votes from people who only want to see a direct benefit to themselves as the result of electing a government, and not think of "the bigger picture / corruption" affecting the country, then why don't the Democrats offer the same populist policies if they're going to result in a lot more votes?

 

Can someone enlighten me please? :dunno:

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If this policy works so well in obtaining votes from people who only want to see a direct benefit to themselves as the result of electing a government, and not think of "the bigger picture / corruption" affecting the country, then why don't the Democrats offer the same populist policies if they're going to result in a lot more votes?

 

Can someone enlighten me please?

 

In this election they did. The editor-in-chief of the Bangkok Post quipped last week that one party is offering the electorate more than the Thai government can possibly afford, and the other is offering even more.

 

Both the main parties offered more than the government could possibly afford, but the Democrats offered less, a strategy that makes absolutely no sense to me. They also embraced the populist race to the bottom later than the PT.

 

I don't think PT will win because of their ridiculous offers of free tablet computers, etc. I haven't met a single person who actually believes they are going to get a tablet computer after the election. It's much more complicated than that.

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Latest from the BBC

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14004755

 

The party allied to ousted and exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra is set for a big victory in Thailand's general election, exit polls suggest.

 

One poll suggested the opposition Pheu Thai party would win 313 seats, compared with 152 for the Democrats of PM Abhisit Vejjajiva.

 

Thai exit polls are not always reliable, correspondents say, but these reflect pre-election opinion surveys.

 

Pheu Thai is led by Mr Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.

'Much work ahead'

 

When the exit polls were shown on television, Pheu Thai supporters erupted in celebration at the party headquarters in Bangkok.

 

Yingluck Shinawatra said: "Let's wait for the official results. I will tell you how I feel tonight."

 

But she said Mr Thaksin had already telephoned her.

 

"Mr Thaksin called me to congratulate me and encourage me. He told me that there is still much hard work ahead of us."

 

The BBC's Karishma Vaswani in Bangkok says both sides have vowed they will respect the result but there is concern that their supporters will not and that there could be a return to the violence of the past.

 

The past few years have seen street protests, airport closures, and clashes between the supporters of the two main groups, which our correspondent says have tarnished the country's economy and reputation for being a bastion of democracy in south-east Asia.

 

Last year, protesters shut down parts of Bangkok for two months in a bid to force the government to resign. When the army stepped in to clear the capital's streets it degenerated into violence, leaving 91 people dead.

 

Many of the red-shirt demonstrators were supporters of Mr Thaksin, whose government was toppled in a military coup in 2006.

'Very crucial'

 

Official results are expected in the late evening.

 

But exit polls, released as soon as voting ended, suggested a big majority victory for Pheu Thai.

 

The poll for Suan Dusit university gave it 313 seats, with the Democrats on 152. A poll by Bangkok's ABAC university suggested a result of 299 seats to 132.

 

More than 40 parties fielded 3,832 candidates for the 500-seat lower house of parliament, the House of Representatives.

 

How the voting system works in Thailand, and why this election is so important

 

In a two-tier system of voting, 375 legislators will be elected by constituency, while 125 candidates will be chosen from lists according to the proportion of votes each party receives nationwide on a separate ballot. There are some 47 million eligible voters.

 

Yingluck Shinawatra was one of the first to vote at a school in Bangkok. She smiled and showed her ID card to television cameras before casting her ballot.

 

She said: "Thank you, supporters, who have been so kind to me."

 

Our correspondent says Ms Yingluck is a political novice, and her popularity seems to rest on the fact she is campaigning on the policies of her brother, who many believe is Pheu Thai's real leader.

 

He is living in self-imposed exile in Dubai to avoid a corruption conviction, and has made it clear that he is keen to return to his homeland.

 

Mr Abhisit had also voted in Bangkok and urged people to "cast votes quickly because this election is very crucial for our country".

Continue reading the main story Thailand's troubles

 

Mr Abhisit had said a vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Mr Thaksin, and pointed out the party's own slogan was "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does".

 

He said the country must "get rid of the poison of Thaksin".

 

If Pheu Thai's win is confirmed, analysts say all eyes will once again be on the military, which has regularly intervened in the political process. Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha on Thursday stressed that he would stay neutral.

 

Thailand has had 18 attempted or successful military coups since democracy was established in 1932.

 

Our correspondent says there is a lot at stake.

 

Whoever wins will have to bring a divided nation back together again, and try to heal Thailand's wounded democracy, she adds.

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If this policy works so well in obtaining votes from people who only want to see a direct benefit to themselves as the result of electing a government, and not think of "the bigger picture / corruption" affecting the country, then why don't the Democrats offer the same populist policies if they're going to result in a lot more votes?

 

Can someone enlighten me please?

 

In this election they did. The editor-in-chief of the Bangkok Post quipped last week that one party is offering the electorate more than the Thai government can possibly afford, and the other is offering even more.

 

Both the main parties offered more than the government could possibly afford, but the Democrats offered less, a strategy that makes absolutely no sense to me. They also embraced the populist race to the bottom later than the PT.

 

I don't think PT will win because of their ridiculous offers of free tablet computers, etc. I haven't met a single person who actually believes they are going to get a tablet computer after the election. It's much more complicated than that.

 

It seems that the Democrats, and especially the PM, are incapable to connect to the rural voters. But since I don't understand enough of Thai politics, I have no real idea why.

On the contrary, Takky can even f@ck the/and steal from the country and the people do love him.

 

In hindsight I think, I and mosts other Farangs, mostly concentrated on Mr. T. destructive side, while the population in LOS seem to ignore this and concentrate on (real or anticipated gains) from Mr. T's rulership.

Also it isn't all about money, but the empowerment of the rural societies. Mr. T. seems to have been the first leader in modern Thai history who cared (or pretended to do so) for the rural people.

 

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What would you rather have, a leader that does 50% more good for the country, but also 50% more bad things... or leadership that does the staus quo?

 

 

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Also it isn't all about money, but the empowerment of the rural societies. Mr. T. seems to have been the first leader in modern Thai history who cared (or pretended to do so) for the rural people.

 

Agree that this is a large part of it. I also think the coup, the violence last year and major missteps by the Democrats and their military backers also played a major role.

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What would you rather have, a leader that does 50% more good for the country, but also 50% more bad things... or leadership that does the staus quo?

 

 

That's what I meant. It doesn't matter at ALL what I, or betters said what the Thai middle and upper class as well as Thai intellectuals think what is right or wrong or for the good of the country.

But for the BKK's lower class and the rural people it does matter what is good for them! Since the country almost NEVER did anything for them, why should they care if Mr. T. is a criminal. Especially since the old elite is only a few shades less corrupt.

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