Thaksin’s dreams can end Thai democracy

[BaronTT]

July 5, 2011 11:49 pm

Thaksin’s dreams can end Thai democracy

By Joshua Kurlantzick

 

Only a decade ago, Thailand was one of Asia’s strongest democracies. Today, that democracy has fallen off a cliff, a worrying trend, which despite the optimism of the Arab spring, is increasingly being seen elsewhere in the developing world too. Now, with the election of the Puea Thai party, led by Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand risks losing a last chance to put its wobbly democracy back on track.

Thailand’s democratic fall is relatively recent. Reformers took control after the failed military interventions of the early 1990s, passing a progressive constitution in 1997, and holding free elections.

 

“Thailand’s freedom, openness, strength, and relative prosperity make it a role model,†US assistant secretary of state James Kelly declared in 2002. Growing divides between the middle and upper classes and the poor, however, gradually polarised Thai society, leading to turmoil, and a bloody crackdown in Bangkok last year that killed at least 90 people.

Mr Thaksin was at the heart of these tensions. First elected in 2001, he proved a revelation. For the first time here was a Thai politician who appealed to the poor – who, as in many developing countries, comprise the majority of the electorate. Politically engaged for the first time, they turned out in droves. Yet as he won mandate after mandate, Mr Thaksin – like other elected autocrats such as Vladimir Putin or Hugo Chavez – began to undermine the rule of law, enacting policies that favoured his family businesses, alarming Thailand’s middle class and elites, the military and royal family.

The result saw a familiar pattern from angry middle class revolts from Venezuela to the Philippines, in which these groups disdained elections and fought back in the streets, toppling Mr Thaksin in a coup in 2006. Yet, now believing that their votes mattered, Thailand’s poor were also unwilling to give way, leading to frequent battles with security forces. Now, in this election, they, and Ms Yingluck, have handed the establishment one of their worst defeats. Now Thailand’s first female prime minister has a chance to put its democracy back together. Despite her surname, she may win acceptance on all sides, simply by not being her brother. Unlike him, she seems to understand the need for compromise, including a vow not to prosecute army officers for last year’s bloodshed. But if she fails to take this chance, her country could again descend into civil conflict – foreshadowing similar implosions in other failing democracies worldwide.

Here the early signs have been mixed. In the days after the election, all sides called for calm. Rather than govern alone, Ms Yingluck chose to bring others into a coalition. Her primary mission, she told reporters, was “to lead the country to unity and reconciliation.†In response, Thailand’s army chief, an arch-conservative traditionalist, has said the military will not interfere with her government.

But this detente is unlikely to last. Though Ms Yingluck has avoided discussing the topic, many in her party, who worship her brother, want him back. Puea Thai promised an amnesty during the campaign, and the Thai press reported on Tuesday that these plans were now being developed. Though he claims to want to retire, Mr Thaksin, an incorrigible politician never happier than in front of a crowd, has no intention of stepping back from the limelight. Even so, as by far the most divisive figure in the country, his return could spark major street protests by the middle class and elites, just the kind of unrest that could provide a rationale for military intervention to restore order.

In the longer run, both Thailand’s urban middle classes and its poor must accept the need for painful change. The poor, and their allies in Ms Yingluck’s party, must accept that they have to protect private property rights and the rule of law and also that they must not let Mr Thaksin back into Thailand, no matter how much they love him.

The middle classes, including their allies in the army and the royal palace, need to accept that if Thailand is to be a democracy, the will of the voters must triumph. Hardest of all, Mr Thaksin must accept that he really does have to retire, if he wants his country to flourish and his positive legacies – including political empowerment and poverty reduction – to stand the test of time. But if he and his sister insist on a comeback, he may yet have to take responsibility for the final fiery death of a once-promising democratic nation.

 

Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/10772e7a-a737-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RarqCsUl

 

 

[Flashermac]

Ending democracy is what he wants. When he was first elected, he said he meant to be PM for at least 10 years. No it seems he wants the prime ministership to be hereditary.

 

[Guest HonoluluJimmy]

If it were not for the actions fo the illegal forces and military coup de etate likely H.E. PolLCol Dr. Thaksin would be the PM today and knocking at the 10 year mark.

What did we get for the Non Democratically empowered government. A lil Brit Boy they had to dig up to serve. There sould be some residency requirements as K A.B. is really a nominee in the finest sense of the word. Who know funded all this rubbish but the sharp shooter form the yellows sure mised his mark. Should have looked for a PM in knickers and a school boys jacket.

 

His dream is democaracy.. not a soft military gov who would change upon need!

[Flashermac]

Thaksin resigned his police rank years ago and has no more rank than I do. It is common talk that someone else wrote his PhD thesis for him at Sam Houston State in Texas. Thaksin is full of shit, always has been and always well be. Years ago the man actually stated that democracy was not necessary for Thailand! The only reason there ever were any yellow shirts is because Thaksin is so greedy that he refused to share the spoils with his buddy Sondhi, who had helped him get elected. Sondhi was so angry he decided to go after him.

 

 

[Guest HonoluluJimmy]

Nothing out of the ordanary in the above. Except one thing, (indicitave of the balance I might add)

If he resigned why did Abbey Road make such a big deal about removing his commission as a convicted felon. If it wasn't in place why remove it! The conviction should be reversed soon! If I were am Abby Road Dem I'd head to the UK and establish a system for politcally incorrect Thais.

Good Idea!!

 

Done with this..

 

[Flashermac]

 

They wanted to stop him calling himself Lt Col. Thais seem to love using rank they no longer have. I remember a colleague whose name on the faculty roster was officially Assoc. Prof. Dr. Second Lieutenant ... .... I asked why the 2LT. A Thai colleague told me he USED to be a 2LT (reserve commission, never on active duty). So why wasn't GWB addressed as H.E. President Captain George Walker Bush? Why not H.E. President Colonel Harry S. Truman? H.E. Vice President Specialist Four Albert Gore?

 

Since Takky was a fugitive, some folks demanded he stop calling himself a police LTC, which was sort of stopped (both him doing so and them telling him not to).

 

Come to think of it, the Governator was a private in the Austian Army. H.E. Governor Private Arnold Schwarzeneger?

 

 

[Flashermac]

They wanted to stop him calling himself Lt Col. Thais seem to love using rank they no longer have. I remember a colleague whose name on the faculty roster was officially Assoc. Prof. Dr. Second Lieutenant ... .... I asked why the 2LT. A Thai colleague told me he USED to be a 2LT (reserve commission, never on active duty). So why wasn't GWB addressed as H.E. President Captain George Walker Bush? Why not H.E. President Colonel Harry S. Truman? H.E. Vice President Specialist Four Albert Gore?

 

Since Takky was a fugitive, some folks demanded he stop calling himself a police LTC, which was sort of stupid (both him doing so and them telling him not to).

 

Come to think of it, the Governator was a private in the Austian Army. H.E. Governor Private Arnold Schwarzeneger?

 

p.s. Don't worry, Abbey Lane is out and Tobacco Road is in.

 

 

[Julian2]

My copy of 'Debrett's Correct Form' (that invaluable book) says:

 

'Field Marshals remain on the active list for life and so continue to use this rank. Other regular officers of the rank of captain and above may use, and be addressed by, their rank after being placed on the retired list.

 

There was a Captain O'Neill PM of Northern Ireland.

 

It'll be fine, the Farang pundits will go on about how stupid the Thais are and what a wonderful government has been voted out of power but it won't make much difference to us.

I survived the dreadful Thaksin reign of terror and I dare say I'll survive the next one.

The real simpletons in this case are the foreigners who suddenly became experts in Thai politics.

 

And another thing.... why would you oppose democracy while you have the numbers anyway?

[Flashermac]

Note that distinction - "retired". Military personnel do retain their rank when they are retired with a sufficient number of years or for disability. Years ago I knew a retired USAF first lieutenant! He had been flying a jet fighter in the early days of such aircraft and the cabin pressure dropped at high altitude. His new fangled pressure suit didn't work, and he got a collapsed lung. He managed to land despite that, but when he recovered the USAF decided it was too danerous for him to fly any more. He was retired with medical benefits in his mid-20s.

 

Retired US military carry an official ID card listing them as retired and stating their rank, branch and MOS (military occupation specialty). If you leave the service for any reason before retiring, you lose your rank. You can correctly say you are an ex-captain, an ex-staff sergeant etc. But you will never be addressed by your former rank, any more than GWB, Slick Willy or Jimmy Carter are still referred to as Mr. President.

 

 

Things are already looking strange here in Lalaland. It seems like Yingluck would like to do a decent job and be remembered well by history. Unfortunately, she is constantly having to take back what she said. It sounds like she makes a statement, then Takky gets on the phone and tells her no she can't do that! These should be interesting time indeed. Is she strong enough to stand up to her brother, or will she finally give in and just be his sock puppet?

 

p.s. I don't think a wonderful government was voted out. But I do think a potentially much worse one was voted in. Just for the record book, this is the first time a Thai PM has had a "minor husband". Quite a few have had mia nois, but a "pua noi" is unique for them.

 

 

[Pom Michael]

"any more than GWB, Slick Willy or Jimmy Carter are still referred to as Mr. President."

 

But here your wrong - all former Presidents are always addressed still as Mr. President. Not sure if codified somewhere but this is the protocol.

 

Cheers!