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What Will The Flooding Do To The Baht?


radioman

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What did the disasters do to the Japanese yen? made it go higher vs the US dollar :dunno:

 

The Yen got terribly strong...

The yen was strong before Fukushima and it got even worse. In the last 24 months the YEN went 20% up to the Euro (also of course because the Euro went down).

We do business with Japan and the strong YEN makes it very complicated.

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Just when I thought I had something figured out...

 

With October exports down qoq and yoy and November and December exports most likely down even further, you can expect the baht to fall against the dollar. With a market selloff (now), look for the baht to weaken from about the 10th onward into December. Our strategist is forecasting 33 baht to the dollar by Nov. 30. This will continue for some weeks until exports fully return to normal. Nearly all manufacturing sectors are effected now between direct flood damage/stoppage and parts shortages. Note: ex. The bottled water shortages are caused by a shortage of plastic bottles and disrupted deliveries.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The Yen got terribly strong...

The yen was strong before Fukushima and it got even worse. In the last 24 months the YEN went 20% up to the Euro (also of course because the Euro went down).

We do business with Japan and the strong YEN makes it very complicated.

 

THB could go even stronger (as it has but but nothing spectacular, not going down anyway).

 

Japanese Yen went up in an anticipation there would be a massive reconstruction work, generating demand and spending.

 

For me, no change, as I earn and spend in Japan. If I had something to pay off overseas, then good (microeconomics).

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I see it this way - if the rest of the world was strong, Thailand might have a problem keeping the value of the baht so high, but when you look at the situation Europe and the US are currently faced with .....

 

The Pacific Peso, by contrast, takes a pounding everytime someone mentions demand contracting in China - thats on the odd days when our media isnt going on about how much money people make driving trucks at the mines.

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