kamui Posted February 13, 2012 Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 So, a possible conclusion is that the Greek legislature has no choice but to agree to the EU's demands and the people protest, even riot in opposition. If that scenario happens I wonder if the Greek government will be able to carry out the reforms and financial cutbacks as the people will be against it? If they can't then the EU may just hold their hands up in disgust and cut them loose? It just happened about what I had speculated: - the Greek parliament agreed to the EU's demands. Stock market is already up, interest rates for Greek banks are going down. - A Greek mob burnt around 50 houses and plundered around 150 shops in Athens. I guess it will become even worse when thousands of more workers are losing their jobs. Now we will see if Greece is capable (politically and technically) to enforce the extremely severe cuts and changes to their bureaucracy and their highly corrupt and outdated economical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexi Posted February 13, 2012 Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 The EU beauraucrats are terrified of what might happen in the event of a Greek default so my guess is they will carry on shovelling money into the black hole that is Greece.These austerity conditions are just a cover so they can pacify the German tax payers.The write-downs on the bonds keep on rising - first it was 30 % then 50% now they are talking about 90-100% haircut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 Is it possible the Greek people will simply vote out anyone who enforces it and votes in anyone who will give them what ever they want? Also, how is Italy and was it Spain? (or was it Portugal?). How is the future of the EU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelgianBoy Posted February 13, 2012 Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 It just happened about what I had speculated: - the Greek parliament agreed to the EU's demands. Stock market is already up, interest rates for Greek banks are going down. - A Greek mob burnt around 50 houses and plundered around 150 shops in Athens. I guess it will become even worse when thousands of more workers are losing their jobs. Now we will see if Greece is capable (politically and technically) to enforce the extremely severe cuts and changes to their bureaucracy and their highly corrupt and outdated economical system. Yes and no. The EU still needs to meet to approve the 130 B loan wednesday. Not only that, but elections are foreseen in april in Greece, all traditional parties will loose and not a single item of EU's demands will be executed before that, and even less after that, its just for show anyway. My forecast is that Greece will default soon and forced out of the Eurozone, where it only amount to 3 % of the total Eurozone GNP anyway, so no big deal. BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kamui Posted February 13, 2012 Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yes and no. The EU still needs to meet to approve the 130 B loan wednesday. Not only that, but elections are foreseen in april in Greece, all traditional parties will loose and not a single item of EU's demands will be executed before that, and even less after that, its just for show anyway. My forecast is that Greece will default soon and forced out of the Eurozone, where it only amount to 3 % of the total Eurozone GNP anyway, so no big deal. BB I have no forecast. It seems that all parties involved just act retroactive and always too late. It seems that no one has an idea what will happen in the upcoming months not even in the next weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 So, lets say Greece defaults. What then? Well, in terms of Greece they are obviously f*cked. The masses who are protesting they won't stand for cuts presumably won't be able to get what they want. Have to wonder what the masses protesting have to be thinking. On one hand I can understand being angry at the politicians who put them in the mess. Even if they wanted it, even demanded it, the politicians should have done what was best for Greece even if it meant not being elected again. But that is the same in every country, isn't it? As for everyone else, who outside of Greece holds their debt? Who is the most exposed and what will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kamui Posted February 13, 2012 Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 the politicians should have done what was best for Greece even if it meant not being elected again. But that is the same in every country, isn't it? Nope, Greece is not like every country. ALL political parties used the government as self-service-store for their own clients. Every new government did put more party members into government jobs and inflated the bureaucracy even more. Every government bent to the pressure of the people NOT to change completely outdated anti-free market rules. For example, many businesses were closed to newcomers, like that to drive a truck you'll need(ed?) to buy a license for around 150.000 USD. The result: the Greek transport system was extremely slow and 2-3 times more expensive than in other EU countries. Only the current crisis was/is able to force the government get rid of those corrupting rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just like Americans, ulitmately the people get the government they deserve. The party is over for Greece. I still have to wonder what the people in these various groups are thinking that they can have their old lives again? Deluded? Again, maybe the think their governmetn is lying and there is enough money to keep the perks. Its proven that the Greek government aren't honest from what I've read. So, again, who else does a Greek meltdown affect? Someone has to be holding on to the bonds that are going to be in default? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2012 Moody cuts ratings for Italy, Spain and Portugal. No surprise there. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2012/02/123_104774.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekong Posted February 15, 2012 Report Share Posted February 15, 2012 All I can say on this matter is "I am glad I have a Swiss Bank Account and my funds in CHF" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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