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Occam's Razor

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There is a well known principle of logic called the Occam's razor which states :

 

" If there is many solutions to a problem, always pick the easiest one as that's the one that always works."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

 

If that logic where to be applied to Thailand's current political crisis what is the easiest solution ?

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The choices are:

 

1. Military coup - The military probably offers the most favorable ratio of superior competency to (relatively) low corruption - with some concept of "public service".

2. Civil war - This is probably what the country really needs, but that answer is not PC - let the "last man standing" create the next government

3. Partition of the country - The north will fall back into a third-world scenario

4. The Status Quo - See-saw one-up-manship, a slow-festering ulcer, but with the deck stacked in favor of the entrenched elites

 

None of those solutions look very appealing. By default, Thailand remains in Situation #4 - and the longer that scenario goes on, the eventual resolution by one (or more) of the other three "solution" will be that much more bitter.

 

It is entirely possible that Thailand will go from Choice (Status) #4, to Choice #2, to Choice #1, to Choice #3. Fun for everyone in that sequence.

 

In classical geopolitics, the answer is Wild Card Solution #5 - Demonize a neighbor (Cambodia?), and get everyone to subordinate their "minor" grievances to the necessity of joining forces to overcome the "existential threat" from foreign invaders. Unfortunately, Thailand is surrounded by weak neighbors - and it would be hard to inflate any of them up to be a credible threat to the Thai Nation.

 

Drip, drip, drip .........

 

Cheers!

SS

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I disagree with how #4 plays out, one side was never in the past as vocal as it is now, I don't think they will allow their votes to be thrown away again and again, that means if there is a status quo, even a parliamentary one, then those numbers will increase,

 

I see an option #6, which would be very good,

 

A new party forms, emerging intellectual and working left wing in the city, rural poor from both North, North East and South,

 

That takes large numbers of votes away from both TRT and it's legacy parties, and Democrats, and leaves only elite, right wing, and conservatives.

 

That party would be even stronger than any of the existing incantations of other groupings,

 

Some of the worlds oldest Labor parties have come from rural backgrounds not city, so this has happened before in many other countries.

 

Would be a disaster for the conservatives though.

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Organizing a new major party, big enough to significantly influence the formation of a new government, would require a level of organizing - and associated funding - that simply cannot be assembled in Thailand. There are only two significantly funded entities - all the other parties are just opportunistic splinters off the main branches, hoping to be able to bargain for pet causes as part of joining a coalition to form a government. But - the base of the coalition is always one of the "big two".

 

The only possible alternative - that could generate the necessary funds - would be a group such as those behind the Dhammakaya Temple - and their "cult-like" character does not seem sufficiently mainstream to gain the necessary traction.

 

Basically, any major political force needs a great leader, and massive funding. I just cannot see those two prerequisites evolving spontaneously, independent of the existing parties.

 

Cheers!

SS

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"The Cult" won't join in, it's conservative, and very right wing, so no interest in poor farmers who can't donate enough.

 

Can the funds be raised is the key point as you point out, I think there are enough on the fringe who now have some funds, and would be interested in splitting off.

 

Will they? Unknown.

 

I oddly believe Abhisit when he says a coup would be the worst thing, because for sure his party will be blamed, rightly or wrongly, he does need to win legitimately "if" Democracy is continued, in order to stay in power a few election cycles.

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The Democrats are the only party that is not based around one individual. Thaksin founded his TRT party with the sole purpose of making himself PM, and its subsequent incarnations have been the same. Pheu Thai's cabinet was made up of family and fully trusted loyalists. Chavalit's New Aspiration was all about him, and it dissolved when he lost interest. Barnharn ... all the rest. Newin's faction sides which whichever larger party offers him the best deal.

 

As to the poor farmers still backing Takky, I wouldn't be so sure after Pheu Thai's absolute fiasco with the "rice purchase scheme". How many months have them been waiting now to be paid for the crops they sold last October? Allegedly, the farmers in darkest red country got paid very quickly. That makes sense, but still leaves many more totally PO'ed. Those who spoke on the protest stage said they probably wouldn't vote for the Dems, but they would never trust Thaksin again.

 

Thailand definitely needs a new party, but who is going to form it?

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Flash - I don't know why it doesn't make the press, but pretty much all the farmers i know have been paid, the people who haven't been paid are the mills the farmers sell too,

 

The business of Rice growing is not as simple as people think, many farmers "sell" the rice before it's cut, after all, it's a financially speaking recognizable asset, and the get their $'s sooner, albeit less than if they waited.

 

This is one reason so many government funded mills in villages are not used, a village owned mill doesn't loan you cash on your rice in the field.

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I imagine you are talking about farmers up in your neck of the woods, which is in red shirt land. The farmers who have not are on the fringes or in non-red areas. No?

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