Syrian Refugee Crisis

[waerth]

Plus not all 17 million will leave their country ....

[YimSiam]

The Assad family, for instance, seems relatively committed to staying on.

 

You may see some big elements from Syria still remain to depart - Aleppo has already emptied, and that was the other major urban area outside of Damascus. Much of the Damascus suburbs are destroyed or thinly populated now, though certainly if/when Damascus falls, there will be an immediate wave exiting. So far, though, IS is in the north and especially east - vast empty desert out east, but they are moving in bit by bit from the deserts to the populated areas, and they and Nusra must ultimately plan on pushing the Alawite regime into the sea from their coastal heartland (and early slogan: "Christians to Beirut, Alawite to the grave!"...) Damascus and more so the Alawite heartland will be fights to the death, if it comes to that.

 

Everyone in Syria has either left, has a departure plan in the works, or is watching out for events that will be their cue to leave - except, of course, for Mr. Assad. At this point, his departure might not even make that big a difference - you'd still have Sunni factions IS and Nusra and many others competing for dominance, Kurds wanting autonomy, and the Shi'a-Druze-Christian-Alawite strange bedfellows trying to avoid a genocide. The war doesn't end with Assad's departure - the core issues remain. Maybe our Russian friends have got it right: tell Assad to abandon all but the coastal zone and Damascus, build airports, ports, roads, fortifications - in preparation for an Alawi pullback and division of Syria into two states (sorry, Kurds - you STILL get fucked, no matter what...), with Assad (or, better, a successor) able to defend an Alawi heartland state with Russian and Western support.

 

And then, for the rest of the country? Maybe Conrad flagged it, or at least pointed to the inexorable logic of the colonial world and clash of civilizations: Exterminate All The Brutes...

[jitagawn]

I have a very old Swedish friend who lives in a small rural community on his 600 acres of land replete with his own trout

pond etc. His local community populations was about 1500 people but has doubled to now 3200 people .

The difference is the migrant influx of the past few years.

 

His comment to me is that its very bad. There is little if any effort at assimilation. Rape and petty theft have sky rocketed..

 

He is a very solid family guy but is NOT happy with what his government is doing.

The Swedes are so"PC" that logic is forgotten.

Crazy

[YimSiam]

Sweden is a tricky case - the social welfare system is so supportive, it attracts huge numbers of people who are then able to maintain a separate existence. I think they've had especially high numbers of Somalis and Iraqis, now Syrians. Somalis - especially the older generation - are notorious for failing to integrate (though the children will probably do fine), in USA or Sweden. Many of the post-Saddam Iraqis were used to a high standard of living, and happy to sit and enjoy benefits - and the numbers were large.

 

Much more balanced to have refugees come to places like the US, Canada, Australia, UK, I think. Deeper diversity already in place, less chance to sit back and enjoy govt benefits past the initial arrival period.

 

For those coming into Europe now, as long as there's going to be a rethink of Dublin and the reception rules, etc, I'd go for a system of temporary admission, right to work, support for the disabled and elderly - and send them back when the situation improves in their country. Maybe Afghanistan and Syria aren't likely to improve, ever, but at least the host community would feel that the protection is humanitarian and related directly to the conflicts. I think this is what much of Europe did with the former Yugoslavia? Let 'em in, confirm their status as refugees (deport the non-refugees, promptly), let 'em stay and work, and they go back when the situation permits.

 

 

Or hell, just build some big fucking camps, and warehouse the people in these groups the same way refugees are generally warehoused in Africa... Restricted to camp environs, some shelter, primary health care, 2100 kcal a day, and twenty years later - you go back where you came from... To bring it back around to Thailand - that was basically the approach to Burmese, until the US started taking people from the camps to resettle. But very soon, the remainder are going to be on their way back to Myanmar.

[ALHOLK]

.

The Swedes are so"PC" that logic is forgotten.

Crazy

 

Yeah to that!