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2015 - Annus (Horribilis Or Mirabilis) Or Nowt?


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Well it's that time of year again - a chance to review 2015 with a calm eye and try to see what 2016 has in store for us all, and particularly Thailand. Do we carry 2015 upstairs and smooth her brow and kiss her nighty night? Or do we duct tape her to a deck chair and kick her back down the stairs? Well I'll leave that up to you. Let's make a master reel of 2015 before we abandon it. I need your help because I've been hermetically sealed, no television - well Thai TV doesn't count, very limited forays on the internet, but I'll still climb on the news horse occasionally if only to watch it stumble blindly through a hedge and end up in the event's ditch.


Firstly I'd like to say there isn't a huge elephant in the room, in order to get that out of the way. If you see it you are a conspiracy nut pure and simple. However to distract you, if you are an avid fan of Thai TV, and I only watch it for Nong Natt aka น้องà¹à¸™à¸— these days, there was a little competition called Miss Universe.


Their strategy was impeccable - go to Lion City, Singburi the land of heroes, find a beautiful maiden and catapult her to stardom. Thailand last won Miss Universe in 1988, nigh nearly 30 years ago! Which for a country renowned for it's beautiful women (among other things) is preposterous. At this point they had it in the bag already. What do you think of when you imagine beautiful women and Thailand (well apart from that)? Beaches, great food, tropical vistas, impossible blue skies over rice paddies that stretch forever. You think of sanuk.


On the wish list to forget are the scammers, the scammers, and the scammers that drive those pollution farting and belching tricycles endearingly called tuk tuks. So what do the geniuses behind the Miss Thailand do? In an ingenious leap of magnitude they manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by making her into a tuk tuk! Oh well back to the drawing board Thailand.




The cowardly bombing of the Erawan shrine was a real low point. Tourism was already down but Thailand showed it's resilience.


Has Stickman left the building? Haven't been following it, but good luck to Sticky! I guess New Zealand cried out to him - we need you Stickmeister! Thailand -1 : New Zealand 0 (wait this isn't adding up).


The ahhh stitch up job law proceedings on the Koh Tao Murders is underway. Heart goes out to the family.


The Queen of England gave her 'moments of darkness' speech. Is it just me, but living a whole life in the lap of luxury, why does she have to address the nation like she's just been forced to swallow three tablespoons of stale earwax?


Well I'm a lazy bastard really, so I'm hoping board members will chip in, do we kick 2015 down the stairs or kiss it goodnight?

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I forgot about 2016. I know it's useless, but a few predictions (in no particular order):

  • as regards Thailand, the mad elephant is gleefully jumping on all fours, strotting as I think Douglas Adams coined it. The invisible hand is frotting the white fairy that will assume power in the event the candy prince falls off the wall. All lunatic nonsense of course - only conspiracy nuts would believe this, look no further to the TV, where,
  • Miss Universe will appear as a scale model of the Grand Palace scuppering yet another chance;

The Balkanisation of the middle east will continue. Hawks will promote a major conflict, possibly leading to a new cold war as Russia maneuvers.


Oil will drop as low as $20 greatly benefiting economies around the world including Thailand. Iron ore price could see $10 as large mining companies attempt to shrug off competitors - thereby also shooting themselves in the foot.


Meanwhile China has been as quietly as possible over the last five years been hoovering up as much gold production as possible. With the world in a dire currency war - China may float the Yuan (IMF included them in the SDR currency basket recently) - and here's the clever thing: back it with gold. Such a move would almost instantly make Renminbi the most sought after currency in the world. More likely to happen in 2020, but they could surprise us all in 2016. I would expect a broad appreciation in SE Asian currencies - perhaps to the extent of 15 Baht to the USD initially.


Trump will be POTUS in 2016. In ten years from now we'll all be hunting rats with sticks. That's if we're lucky.


There will be fifty massive gun shooting massacres in the USA. Schoolteachers and students to be provided with sidearms & training.


The Thai Women's Volleyball team will win the gold medal at the 2016 Olympics - the local media will barely mention it...


There will be significant moves in the legalization of certain drugs, particularly 'medical' marijuana. Smoking will continue to be stamped out, the last smokers will be harried, forlorn creatures.


Terrorism will be rammed down our collective throats next year - under the guise of a 'war on terrorism'. Human rights will continue to be attacked as 'getting in the way of catching the bad guys'. Turkey is becoming more isolated, rapidly becoming the pariah of the international community - along with it's patron the grand 'ol USA which will play it down as usual. Turkey will certainly implode in some way next year, if not tomorrow.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Oil has dropped to twenty bucks - ray!!! - people are starting to think why not refine it our self territory. I don't like to say I told you so... Wall street just did an inverted backflip and wrote off about 3% - think about that - if you have an million in the bank (lol, as superannuated earnings lol) - you just lost $30,000 USD in cash. It's carnage on the trading floor... And John - I'm only dancing, (lol).


Whahhhaaaayaaaayaaayaaaaayyaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyaaaaaaaaaaaaaah the Gods must be crazy!


Isn't this just grand?


Everything is going to plan - fuck you all, this is - this is pull up an armchair and no doubt I'll snore through the most important bits - but by jesus motherloving christ this is going to be the ::::::?????

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Interesting observation


The Oil price will effect many people whom I know, having worked in the industry on and off for some 35 years now.


There are now unprecedented lay offs amongst contact staff, the Likes of SHELL and BP have put numerous multi billion dollar projects on hold.


30 months ago I chose to take a drop on income and ride out the recession in Vietnam, at the time my co-workers thought I was insane, but even this year I have received 10 emails from ex co-workers begging for a job over here, nice guys etc but it is a dog eat dog world and I am the meanest pup of them all, som nam na fuck them.


This will have a knock on effect in Thailand, due to my line of work the majority of people I know in Thailand rely on O&G work and once the work dries up many of them will be skint and will have to return to their home countries


2016 will be interesting



The Original Rebel

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