North Korea Has Fired A Missile That Passed Over Northern Japan Today.

[Steve]

Every US presidential candidate talks about reigning in N. Korea....until they are in the office. There are no military solutions. None. Unless you are comfortable with losing Seoul and then Tokyo. China holds all the cards. A possible solution?

First, lets understand why China is opposed to ending North Korea. By doing so, it unifies the north and south and basically the end result is to have one korea, led by South Korea the way east Germany essentially became west Germany but only larger. That's basically what will happen and China is loathe to have a strong US ally on its border.

 

So, what to do? Work out a deal with China and S. Korea (with Japan being clued in).

 

Tell China, lets get rid of Kim, make a deal with the generals to get rid of him, assassinate Kim, whatever. Promise them the country will be open for trade, they stay in charge, stay communist and stay independent, just get rid of the missille testing and take the money. Become a smaller version of China essentially, communist in name only but a capitalist country. They are sitting on hundreds of billions of natural resources, exploit that, get the people fed and they'll accept it. Stay a military state if you want. But just no testing, get rid of some of the missiles

 

Long term, they will eventually unite with the south, but for the foreseeable future no.

 

China keeps an ally on its border, a stronger ally and opens up more trade, South Korea and Japan is safer. South Korea has new markets and the north has new markets. Tourism form the south would soar. Infrastructure projects, etc in time they become almost like Canada and America.

[Mekong]

I Hope nothing kicks off next week I will be in Seoul from Mon till Thurs PM

[Steve]

Anything happens you can at least have the peace of mind that it will end very quickly.

[Coss]

Please post shaky cell phone footage of battle scenes

[pasathai1]

if it is a shooting ( ground war) the N. KOrean officers should be easy to spot with those big hats

[Flashermac]

[Coss]

The thing that Kimmie has been showing off, as a hydrogen/atom bomb, elsewhere referred to as a peanut, looks like their latest and greatest, clothes washing machine to me...

 

[Flashermac]

S.Korea conducts live-fire exercise after N.Korea nuke test

 

 

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/world/1318119/s-korea-conducts-live-fire-exercise-after-n-korea-nuke-test

[Steve]

I think at worst it will be a limited shooting war. Pitty pat stuff in comparison to what they could do. Kim knows this. Any escalated war, he does not win. The only way he has any semblance of a chance is if China decides to support them the same way they did in the early '50s. Any escalated war and the regime crumbles. All America and S. Korea has to do in a limited war is just bide their time. Economically NK can not survive in a protracted war. Trade slows to a crawl if China doesn't support it. The only trade is the black market.

 

A protracted war in Afghanistan was what really ended the USSR. The USSR was fighting wars by proxy since WW2 (Korea, Vietnam, via Cuba in Namibia, etc.) their economy was teetering on collapse (bread lines, soup lines for decades in bad harvests) and the Afghan war for ten years '79 - '89, over 200k troops at its height, was what killed off their economy. Once you spend the money on a bullet or a bomb, and you use that bullet, that money is gone, its not like spending on oil production and getting back plus a profit in the open market. Housing, feeding and paying 200k troops for the first time, was unsustainable for 10 years.

 

NK is even worse off than the old USSR. I'm guessing a year or two and there may be a coup in a limited shooting war. The problem is its a fine line. It could escalate to something quick at any time.

[Coss]

Well I hope nothing happens at all, but then if something does, I hope you are right.

 

If this link

 

https://www.windfinder.com/#6/37.524/127.076

 

is correct, any nuclear fall out would be heading to China, which could spur bigger actions/problems.