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China will have a huge recession. They are waaaaaaaaay over due for a big one. And it really isn't a big deal in the big picture. Many folks think that when China's housing bubble pops it will implode and China will be no more. Not a trained economist but I do know this from business school. Every great economy has these big recessions from time to time. America in its rise to becoming the world's biggest economy around the 1900s when it passed the UK had a recession, panic or some form of serious economic downturn at least once every 10 years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States and once or twice teetered on the edge of incolvency. JP Morgan and other bankers literally saved the financial system themselves in 1907. https://en.wikipedia...i/Panic_of_1907

The panic might have deepened if not for the intervention of financier J. P. Morgan,[3] who pledged large sums of his own money, and convinced other New York bankers to do the same, to shore up the banking system.

 

Anyway, for further proof China is too big to fail, consider China. China has been in a no growth, stagnated economy since early 90s and remained the 2nd largest economy till China passed after this new century and they are still number 3. What actually makes China better able to handle a bubble popping is that 1. Their economy is centralized. They don't have to worry about political parties, etc. They can fix it quicker than democratic countries can and 2. They know its going to happen and are planning for it.

 

Also, the world is so inter connected that China won't suffer alone. America and now China's economies are so big when they have a bubble its global. China's more so since they are the biggest trade partners for other large economies (South Korea, Australia, Brazil, Japan and a huge trading relationship with the EU). America will surely suffer as well for a few reasons, one of which that although China has been decreasing its buying of America debt, it still holds very large reserves.

 

My guess is China may even see a recession as an opportunity to remove America's global financial power. How? It may be that America will be suffering more than China (as the US has multiple bubbles to contend with, China's is primarily a housing one) and with America mired in political infighting and not able to solve endemic and systemic issues as nimbly as China can, China will likely emerge faster from a crash and take on the petrodollar dominance. They have been working towards that end for a while now, looking for the right time to do it.

 

What will likely secure China's future dominance is 1. removing the dollar as the world's reserve currency with a better alternative, likely backed by real assets and 2. their new Silk Road initiative. https://www.weforum....road-explainer/

 

Obama's TPP was an attempt to stave that off and even if it had been initiated I think it would have been a too little, too late initiative. The Republicans and even Democrats were right in that it would hurt the US but Obama was playing the long game and was willing to further hurt America's economy at the expense of keeping the Asian and Oceana countries in the American sphere or economic influence. In my humble opinion, its too late. All America can do is go along and work on our own internal issues.

 

As I mentioned in another thread, Xi is now the most powerful world leader. It's been the American president since WW2 but no more. Xi is president for life essentially and the Chinese (as well as the Japanese and Koreans) think long term. 50 or even up to 100 years in the future. America is governed by the Wall Street relate , (calendar) quarter by quarter short term thinking and that has got to stop.

 

The trade wars brewing are going to hurt rather than help America. There is nothing wrong in seeking a more favorable trade balance. I applaud Trump for that. However, how he is doing it is making things worse. He has alienated our biggest allies and that plays perfectly into China's hands. They are loving it. 30 or 40 years ago America could bully their way into a trade war but not today. The American economy is one event from a full on crash.

 

Finally, because all of us here have been raised on the concept of a democratic way of governing being the best way, I don't think it is for some countries. China being one of them (Russia and the Middle East being others). Some peoples and cultures work best with an autocratic leader. We may not like it but its how they like to be govern culturally. Russians, I think, like a strong autocratic leader. As long as he doesn't cross the line into despotism, they will accept a leader for life. They flirted with democracy after the fall but it never worked for them. Despite what the west thinks Putin is not as hated as people think. In most Russians mind, Putin is all about making Russia stronger. They believe, for the most part, he is looking for their collective self interests and they actually like the fact he is feared. Russians lost a lot of self esteem after the implosion of communism and Putin gave them back some semblance of self respect.

 

China never adopted democracy either because culturally its just not their way. This is a nation that enjoyed thousands of years pre-dating democracy with Emperors.Mao was just a modern day Emperor. Xi is as well. The communist party is just a pre text. Certain cultures respect power and respect ultimate power and will follow it. They really don't respect a person who everyone has to agree to lead them. Certain cultures value a leader who takes it. Putin. Xi and the Arabs are similar. They are tribal, have tribal leaders that have nearly autonomous powers. They prefer a Sheikh,Emir or King to an elected President.

 

So, while the Chinese style of governing may make us criticize them, for the Chinese it works for them.

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{The panic might have deepened if not for the intervention of financier J. P. Morgan,[3] who pledged large sums of his own money, and convinced other New York bankers to do the same, to shore up the banking system.}

 

​I'd like to see the Goldman Sachs' of the present world do that, impossible in my opinion, unless they got multi trillion dollars bonuses beforehand.

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{The panic might have deepened if not for the intervention of financier J. P. Morgan,[3] who pledged large sums of his own money, and convinced other New York bankers to do the same, to shore up the banking system.}

 

​I'd like to see the Goldman Sachs' of the present world do that, impossible in my opinion, unless they got multi trillion dollars bonuses beforehand.

 

This event was what ushered in the Federal Reserve. As you may know a quasi private/public, secret organization that controls our money supply. The reason why Morgan and the leading banks of the day literally saved the financial sector of the country was because had it collapsed, they would have no way to make money. It wasn't out of love for the country. If the system imploded, they had no market, they ARE the market.

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Major typo in my War and Peace diatribe.

Anyway, for further proof China is too big to fail, consider China. China has been in a no growth, stagnated economy since early 90s and remained the 2nd largest economy till China passed after this new century and they are still number 3.

 

Should have been written as

 

Anyway, for further proof China is too big to fail, consider Japan. Japan has been in a no growth, stagnated economy since early 90s and remained the 2nd largest economy till China passed after this new century and they are still number 3.

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