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Investing In The Current Financial Climate

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Property prices in New Zealand are way too high for sure, and I think so many of the problems in life here in Kiwiland come back to the fact that most house buyers are going to be in debt from the day they buy through to retirement. The sad thing is that whatever happens, there are going to be people severely hurting. If prices plateau or keep going up, young people are stuffed. If prices drop a small amount, anyone who bought in recent years will have issues. If prices drop a lot, there will be major economic ramifications. Things just went way too far, didn't they?

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On 2/11/2019 at 10:54 AM, Mekong said:

The bottom will drop out of the Vehicle and Property market in Thailand just like it did in 1997, but this time I am ready for it, have a few bucks squirreled away to take advantage of the situation 

 

Traffic was actually pleasant in Bangkok for a few years after the 1997 crash, since close to 50% of the cars on the road had been repossessed. Even better, banks were selling repossessed new houses at as little as one quarter of their original selling prize. There was plenty of opportunity for folks who had money back then. (I didn't.  :(  )

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In any crash, being debt free and cash on hand, is the best and those folks are best poised to take advantage of assets at basement prices. Cash rich Chinese investors made out like bandits after the 2008 crash. 

Anyone who has relatively sizeable amount of cash on hand will be at a huge advantage. 

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The surprise to me is that the economy hasn't crashed yet (China/America trade war, huge deficits, multiple bubbles, etc,) . I think it is due in no small part to a fairly decent level of confidence by conservatives in America (despite what the underlying stats are saying) and perhaps in segments of other markets in other countries. The media plays a big role, they are part of the problem. Yes, there are articles like we see in this thread about financial problems in the economy but by and large the media doesn't want to scare the general public and maintain a feeling that things aren't that bad. The media companies themselves are publicly traded so its self serving for them. A crash would send their values plummeting. 

The consensus prognosis is a late 2020 recession but economists have never been able to accurately predict when a recession or crash will happen, only that one is looming and is near. 

 

 

 

 

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Down here all our 'big' (by antipodean standards) banks, are gosh golly, being found to be shysters and grifters.

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I've got nothing to base this on other than a hunch but I feel that these big banks, money machines, related organisations and such, criminal though they maybe are not inherently dumb. They have learnt from the ups and downs of the last 30 years and have applied serious computational effort toward "managing" this. End result being that any crash, drop, dip, recession whatever, will be carefully and deliberately managed so as to appear otherwise.

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