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chocolat steve

The End of Pax Europa?

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Brexit is already going to happen. At some point Le Pen is going to win in France and the first order of business is to leave the EU. Merkel's party lost seats on recent Bavarian elections to the ultra right, in an area Merkel used to dominate. Austria, is now gone far right and will probably leave the EU. Italy is under financial crisis and may leave. Spain is next after Italy if it doesn't fall first and they have two regions (Basque and Catalonia) that want to set up their own shop. 

All over Europe, and I haven't named all the countries with far right governments or leaning that way. The EU has been a historic success given the history of Europe. If you go back at least 700 or 800 years, Europe was at war with 2 or more countries at least once every generation (roughly every 30 years) and one of those wars was famously and accurately named The Hundred's Year's War. 

Europe eventually got to the point (WW1 and 2) where they mastered killing on a mass scale that afterwards they decided a 1000 years (roughly) of constant war has lost its value. 

There may not be a war like we see in the past but is the EU destined to end? Right now the EU is Germany. It really is. The irony is Germany spent 2 world wars trying to dominate Europe and in 70 odd years or so did it without firing a single shot. 

If the EU is doomed and with the next recession (and its a when not if) , Italy and Spain may be flung into a full fledged depression, along with Greece. And if that happens and its more likely than not. What will be future of the region be? China will emerge the big winner, eastern Europe, already financially fragile, will see some of its states become as bleak as they were during the USSR days. 

What will happen? 

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Neither will Le Pen win France at any time nor will anybody be as stupid as leaving the EU. Italy is tecnically bankrupt and currently trying to worsen it´s refinancing conditions. So far the EU has been buying their bonds but that will have to finish end of 2018.  Facing the cruel reality people will think it over, look at the UK these days. I wish it would be possible to have a 1 year test for all to live without the EU to find out what it is like. Currently people are victims of some populists with great phantasies but no plans except closing the border for refugees. What I do agree with but not at the price of seeing them rule anywhere.

I am more worried about the US than about the EU.

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The US is fucked. If you have read some of my posts in the USA thread, I've said as much. The fringe right in France is very strong. And an economic crash could usher them in, such as the Nazis in Germany. There were many people who voted for Obama twice who voted for Trump. They were from areas that never recovered from 2008 and were desperate. If you are saying the same can't happen, then I respectfully disagree with regards to France and other countries. 

Whether or not Brexit works is not the point, the fact it happened is. And the UK is much more diverse country than a lot of European countries. 

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Sir,

as much as I like your balanced view on the US I note a lack of knowledge on European affairs. What you think about German Nazis is probably based on TV spots about some Saxonian fuckup alcoholics without future. The right wing AfD currently stays at maybe 16 % and unfortunately is home to some real nazis but by far the majority of their voters would immediately evaporate once the refugee problem had been solved whichever way. Else the AfD  has nothing to contribute.

As far as it concerns Italy the Italian voters have a tradition to put their heroes into the dustbin after they have praised them 6 years ago. It might be a good example for the rest of Europe what happens in reality once the populists are in power. In Poland the right wing Pis currently leads the polls although the Polish are almost fanatic EU supporters. Main reason for the PiS success being the invasion of refugees which there are almost none of in Poland.

Ref the " economic crash " to happen please bear in mind that other than the US most European countries offer a social sytem that very much differs from the US including free healthcare. Even Greece did not collapse due to the successful assistance of , yes, the EU.

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, buffalo_bill said:

Sir,

as much as I like your balanced view on the US I note a lack of knowledge on European affairs. What you think about German Nazis is probably based on TV spots about some Saxonian fuckup alcoholics without future. The right wing AfD currently stays at maybe 16 % and unfortunately is home to some real nazis but by far the majority of their voters would immediately evaporate once the refugee problem had been solved whichever way. Else the AfD  has nothing to contribute.

As far as it concerns Italy the Italian voters have a tradition to put their heroes into the dustbin after they have praised them 6 years ago. It might be a good example for the rest of Europe what happens in reality once the populists are in power. In Poland the right wing Pis currently leads the polls although the Polish are almost fanatic EU supporters. Main reason for the PiS success being the invasion of refugees which there are almost none of in Poland.

Ref the " economic crash " to happen please bear in mind that other than the US most European countries offer a social sytem that very much differs from the US including free healthcare. Even Greece did not collapse due to the successful assistance of , yes, the EU.

 

 

 

UKiP delivered Brexit, where are they now, political evaporation is real. Brexit was sold on several fronts and yet I'd say the only one that mattered to most was immigration, refugees and open borders. Had the UK vetoed that as it did almost every other dumb idea that came out of Brussels during its time in the EU it might still have been on board. UKip struck a chord but that chord is now lost.

 

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Generally speaking , Europe as a whole has shifted right. Some more than others. That's a fact. We'll agree to disagree on that. Some (including myself) thought Trump was completely unelectable. 

I'll have to disagree on the possibility of an ideological / economic threat that could dismantle the EU over time. A crash of gargantuan levels is an unknown if it happens and to dismiss what it may do to the EU especially with Germany shouldering much of it, France to a lesser extent Spain with 2 regions wanting to split, Italy could collapse economically, Russia interfering, Europe's 1000 hear history of constant warring (hence my Pax Europa headline). the migrant issue that will only get 'worse' with the economies in the source country being worse (even with as bad as it is now), on and on. So many things happening at the same time, a 'perfect storm' of events could very well happen. Guaranteed? Of course not, but with all the aforementioned, its certainly a possibility. 

That's all. Anyway, interesting times we live in. 

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What you identify as right wing is not  right wing in a political sense. It is a protest movement against the refugee-thing and further unidentified threats. If the typical right wing voter would have a little bit more intellectual capacity he would know that Europe has never been doing better than now as a whole. Personally I am dreaming of a newly established EU of some middle and north European countries with a sense of reality. That could be great.

 

BuBi

EU supporter

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Europe was shifting right BEFORE the migrant issue and the migrant issue has only exasperated it. Also, in an economic crash and its pretty much a certainty by any honest economist, it would make the migrant issue worse. 

With all mentioned before, such as possibly (some would argue probably) having to bail out Italy and  Spain and Greece again, I'm not sure how the future of the EU looks rosy, but oh well. 

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Legally the EU or it´s facilities are strictly forbidden  to bail out any other EU country.  The rescue of Greece has already been a questionable activity. Even if they could there is  no money around  to bail out Italy. They borrowed 2.300.000.000.000 € already and can´t pay. The next days should offer an entertaining spectacle.

An economic crash is not an economic downturn. To forecast the latter does not need a scientist. I agree there have been right wing movements before the migrants came but Le Pen and the Dutch yellow haired moron did not make it into government.

 

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