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chocolat steve

The (Real) Leader of The "Free" World

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He certainly is unchallenged in the PRC. But in the world? Trump still commands the most powerful military.  Depends how you define powerful. Right now China goes largely unchallenged in what it calls the "South China Sea", even though none of the other countries around it use that name. Xi has openly defied the ICJ, saying they have no right to interfere with his claims. He gets away with it, since the rest of the countries know it will mean war to try to stop Xi there.

p.s. CS, good to have you back. We missed your input.

 

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OK Leader of the World (Free or Otherwise)

I would say Xi Jinping followed by Vladimir Putin and then Donald Trump followed by Narandra Modi

But there are just Political Leaders what about religious leaders such as Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques or Pope Francis  or even e-commerce Jeff Bozos and Jack Ma or leaders of Companies such as Bill Gates, Larry Page, Tim Cook or even Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk

My top three would be politicians  1) Xi Jinping 2) Vladimir Putin 3) Donald Trump after that it would be a mixture of fields

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I don't really count military as a factor when you have the capability of sending nukes to another country. China can blow up half of America as it stands now, Russia can blow up all of  America.  China, America and Russia will never get into a full blown war because all parties know you can't win it. It's a Pyrrhic victory. No winners. If anything China would be the one thinking they could win based on population size. 

All 3 are on the security counsel which carries a lot of power. For me it would come down to who most countries would choose if push comes to shove in a dispute. Right now, I'm not so sure the EU would choose Trump over Xi. It would depend on the specific situation but as it stands now, I don't think Trump has more influence and at best the same as Xi. As I noted in prior posts, China has more economic might when it comes to trade. America got its way with many countries from an implied threat of impacting the trade with the US. Now, China has more power with countries that once had America as its biggest trading partner. Japan, Brazil, Australia, 

America still dwarfs China to some extent with trade to the EU and India but it's shrinking fast. The trend is towards China. Also, China's New Silk Road initiative. Canada and Mexico having America as its biggest trade partners has more to do with proximity than anything else. Sometimes China has mXiore influence even when America has bigger trade. Jamaica's biggest trade partner by far is America but China has the most influence on the island. China has pretty much replaced the European powers as the new 'colonialists' in Africa. 

Specifically with regard to Trump, I can't see how he has more influence with the way he conducts foreign affairs. I'm saying this as objectively as I can. He's alienated America's closest allies (the UK, Canada, Mexico and the EU). 

Personally, I think it's pretty clear Xi is more powerful overall, globally, but I can see how one would still say the American president, whomever it is, carries more global sway, power, whatever you want to call it. 

I think Obama was neck and neck and edged Xi. I also think many more countries now far China more than America. As we know America often uses a stick when it doesn't offer a carrot. In Asia, I think its China for sure. In Africa, its China. In Europe...hmmm...America? I put the question mark based on Trump. If we were discussing Obama or even Bush, I'd say America. 

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1 hour ago, chocolat steve said:

 In Europe...hmmm...America? I put the question mark based on Trump. If we were discussing Obama or even Bush, I'd say America. 

You are right. Anybody I know thinks the US is going completely crazy.

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I saw a docco the other day that backgrounded Putin's rise from Intelligence agent to President, then Prime Minister then President again and how much of puppet master, he is to Trump. A little hard to believe but then, so much about Trump, is hard to believe.

So my summation is ::

Military Might + Economy - USA, so Trump/Putin.

Number two - China. But not a steady placing,  economy about to take a dive.

Winner of WWIII, aside from the obvious - no one - nuclear winter will slay most of the world's population.

The winner will be the very few rich, who will emerge blinking, into the radioactive air in 10~20 years after the war, saying things like, why can't I use my jet to go to the Bahamas? What do you mean I can't have servants? Cook? who knows how to cook, my phone doesn't work...

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I hear this narrative that China is strong now but their economy is going to have a crash and my response is so what? America has had at least 4 great crashes and multiple recessions in the last 100 years but no one has ever said that it will be the end of America as a power. Japan has been stagnated economically since the early 90s but remained the number 2 economy in the world till about 10 to 15 years ago (due to China's rise), almost no growth and with demographics that suggest it will have the worst future of the top 4 or 5 economies but no one is making much of it. America is nursing at least 4 big bubbles. 

Is China sitting on a huge housing bubble? Sure. But how does that make them different when it pops than any other country? Furthermore if or when their housing bubble pops a recession in China means a recession globally. They are now so similar to the U.S. economy in global importance that the old adage that 'When American sneezes (economically) the world catches cold' now applies to China. China will recover from any crash, in fact in better fashion than America because xi knows a crash is coming and has at least tried to put things in place to recover from it and reduce their exposure now. America on the other hand has been doing nothing. The only thing America has to its advantage over China is that the dollar is the world reserve currency but that is going to be severely threatened. 

Point being, a crash or possible crash in China isn't a mitigating factor when the same peril befalls every other major economy. 

Coss is totally right about Putin's machinations and rise to power and influence. I don't see Putin as more powerful than Trump though. His power is through subterfuge (election tampering in his own and foreign elections, siding with despots), but globally the U.S. always has and will have more direct influence. He's a pariah in Europe right now. He's been kicked out of the G8.  China and Russia still are enemies despite a common geo political and economic "enemy" in America. 

Xi's economic hand stretches far far more than Russia which is struggling economically, has a birthrate issue that Putin deems his number one domestic issue (and its bad). The next crash will hurt Russia more than either China or America. 

 

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What crash? Is this the same theory as rioting in the streets when dad died and son took over

 

That never happened either, 

 

Has anyone on this board actually predicted a major global event? 

 

I know I was, nope, no rioting, made me feel lonely as a farang

 

I also said Trump would win, but I hated saying.

 

Global financial crash, doesn't that happen pretty regularly? WFC, Asian Crisis, Indonesia melt down, USA housing Bubble, 

 

Blah blah blah, 

 

None have ended any country

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