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Coss

The Covid-19 thread

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We were discussing, not too long ago, the 'cornered rat syndrome' with reference to what happens when a petri dish of bacteria consumes all the available nutrients/resources. That was a Sociological discussion.

I think that we could use the same arguments, from a Biological perspective, vis Covid-19.

I see they've now started to use it's full name, SARS Covid-19.

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John Mark Dougan is living in Russia and the following video he mentions that he has covid-19. The meds he can obtain in Russia costs $8 for 60 pills...in the USA, it is $8 per pill...He mentions his symptoms and how he is feeling. From what he says, the virus is not so serious? Me thinks YMMV.

 

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3 hours ago, cavanami said:

From what he says, the virus is not so serious? Me thinks YMMV.

I have to agree with you Cav,  the folk that seem to die are mainly older (70 +), immune compromised and infants, with a sprinkling of normal and healthy folk. So for average healthy folk it's flu.

A surprising spike amongst 20 something women, because if anyone is gonna refuse, to not go to, and likes,  a social gathering, it’s them apparently. 

There are something like 6 variants of the corona virus that we often are exposed to, this one seems more serious than most.

And even if it is only older (70 +), immune compromised and infants, with a sprinkling of normal and healthy folk, 2~3% of 6.5 billion people,  is an awful lot of corpses.

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Won’t be long before all the restaurants are closed in Pattaya. Police are already doing the rounds and closing places at random.
there is one beer bar near to me that is operating almost completely in plain sight, they aren’t even pretending to serve food 

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a) Politics has nothing to do with anything, only when asked but nobody is asking.

b) The Thai Corona-numbers are supplied by hundreds of doctors in the ministry. Doing what?

c) Siam is No.6 worldwide in public healthcare

 

Nothing to worry about!

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8 hours ago, baa99 said:

The world population in 1918 was less than 2 billion. It is now over 7 billion.

US Population in 1918 was about a third of today's.  In percentage terms, about 0.7 % of the population died in the pandemic of 1918 and  0.3 % to 0.6 % are estimated to die from the  Coronavirus.  An average American has a 99+ percent chance of surviving this pandemic per estimate.  With odds like that,  I shouldn't be too concerned, right? A million deaths from this virus, however,  could overwhelm the healthcare system and compromise social order.

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Your 0.3 % to 0.6 % is news, I think I've only seen 2 to 3%. Have you any links to these numbers?

My quick search shows ::

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

vis

The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

-----

Which again is good news, lets hope this is where it's heading. And that the statnews website is trustworthy.

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9 hours ago, Flashermac said:

Nothing to worry about!

anutin.jpg.1763ae7848ff52246c92a35fa953cec6.jpg

 

I wouldn't trust this guy to steal my money and run away.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Coss said:

Your 0.3 % to 0.6 % is news, I think I've only seen 2 to 3%. Have you any links to these numbers?

My quick search shows ::

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

vis

The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

-----

Which again is good news, lets hope this is where it's heading. And that the statnews website is trustworthy.

Your numbers may be based on people who show symptoms, not the whole population.  Here is the linK:  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

A respected London's Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team estimates that about one to two million will die in US from the coronavirus. So this is seen to be much worse than the seasonal flu.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/healt...udy/index.html

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