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The way things are at the moment,we’re more likely to die of boredom than a virus.

"Lastly, I'm going to get a check up and see if I have any level of diabetes since both my parents have it and I must be predisposed to it and other things like hypertension as well." CS, I

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On 1/4/2021 at 1:15 AM, zzzz said:

Here’s the link to this info at Johns Hopkins website https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/releases/study_suggests_medical_errors_now_third_leading_cause_of_death_in_the_us

The 10% corresponds to the dead.  For the living,  the odds are 0.1% because only 1% of the population die yearly.  So, a better comparison should be 0.1% dead from medical errors vs. 3% dead from Covid.  My previous comparison above is not correct based on this logic.   A  person with Covid appears more likely to die from Covid than medical errors with this approach.

I’m inclined now to think otherwise based on some new assumptions:

A US person average about 40 days in hospital during lifetime (https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb246-Geographic-Variation-Hospital-Stays.jsp)

Covid patient average about 20 days in hospital (https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-8d57-11e586bd8a4f.html)

With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used.

Covid death rate is 3%

Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime

Medical error death rate for Covid patients = (With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used) * (Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime) = 5%

Since medical error death rate for Covid patient (5%) is higher than Covid death rate (3%), an average US person with Covid will likely die from medical error than from Covid.

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"Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime" so this assumes an average person living an average time, say 70 years.

Meaning 'medical error' has 70 years, to have a go at the person.

Covid has only been around for  say, ~1 year, so 3% per annum,  it's only had a really short time,  to have a go at an average person.

I'm doing this for fun, so see below.

-----

if we take a population number of 1,000:

average age on death  = 70 yrs     -     Medical error (10%) kills 100 bods in 70 years

Covid on the other hand kills 3% per annum     -   so 30 bods a year

But if Covid had had 70 years, to have a go at the population, surely the number of dead bods would be 30 x 70 = 2,100,  can you see where I'm heading with this?

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Or, what's the word? Statisticalize? I guess if you can have statisticalization, statisticalize is valid.

Always statisticalize questions.

i.e.

419829396_ScreenShot2021-01-16at1_27_28PM.png.c31186fa07f448198b20f7983ecae33b.png

48% Is the door open?

47% is the door closed?

5% is there really a door?

Schrödinger anyone?

 

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5 hours ago, Coss said:

"Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime" so this assumes an average person living an average time, say 70 years.

Meaning 'medical error' has 70 years, to have a go at the person.

Covid has only been around for  say, ~1 year, so 3% per annum,  it's only had a really short time,  to have a go at an average person.

I'm doing this for fun, so see below.

-----

if we take a population number of 1,000:

average age on death  = 70 yrs     -     Medical error (10%) kills 100 bods in 70 years

Covid on the other hand kills 3% per annum     -   so 30 bods a year

But if Covid had had 70 years, to have a go at the population, surely the number of dead bods would be 30 x 70 = 2,100,  can you see where I'm heading with this?

Covid does not kill 3% per annum; it kills 3% per event.  Event is when you have Covid.  In my analysis, above, I assume one Covid event per person during lifetime. But if a person catches Covid again, the numbers are the same.   
 

 

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Something fundamentally wrong with your maths. 
 

Medical Errors occur by Hospital admittance and no duration of stay. One of major Medical Errors is misdiagnoses, if misdiagnosed it occurs on day one, you won’t have 20 occurances if patient hospitalized for 20 days.

Therefore your 20/40 (50% Lifetime) becomes a more realistic 1/ 40 or 2.5% 

2,5% of 10% is 0.25% Medical Error Death Rate for Covid and not 5% as you miscalculated 

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43 minutes ago, Mekong said:

Something fundamentally wrong with your maths. 
 

Medical Errors occur by Hospital admittance and no duration of stay. One of major Medical Errors is misdiagnoses, if misdiagnosed it occurs on day one, you won’t have 20 occurances if patient hospitalized for 20 days.

Therefore your 20/40 (50% Lifetime) becomes a more realistic 1/ 40 or 2.5% 

2,5% of 10% is 0.25% Medical Error Death Rate for Covid and not 5% as you miscalculated 

This is a generalized (back of an envelope) evaluation which simply assumes that medical error that causes death occurs (during the 40 days that an average person spends) in a hospital during his lifetime.  What type of medical error or whether that error happens on day one or day 40 is irrelevant because of the simple and general nature of this analysis.  This assumption, however, may be lacking because some medical errors deaths could occur outside the hospital, such as in a doctor's office, in an ambulance, etc.  The fraction outside the hospital can be incorporated once it is known.

 

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Not every person catches covid, so many have no covid event in their lifetime.

Maybe look at the testing and something like 10 ~ 30% show a covid infection, so I would work with the 10 ~ 30% numbers.

Then there are those that have covid and show no symptoms??? Very strange virus...

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