zzzz
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Posts
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Joined
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Days Won
19
Posts posted by zzzz
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2 hours ago, Mekong said:
“They Don’t Look Right” call it a gut feeling but I automatically thought “now that don’t right”
I don't think you know what looks right. Do you know what looks right? 5555555
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1 hour ago, Mekong said:
....had at least 12 Chest X-rays...
Too many x-rays can be deadly. That may be a medical error. Recently I had to get x-rays done three times because, they couldn't get it right the first two times. Then I was given two more when referred to other offices that wanted to do their own x-rays. Medical error are common in my area.
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51 minutes ago, Mekong said:
Figures rounded up / down to simplify.
OK so they are inpatient figure, I accept that, but 9.5% of 35,000,000 = 3:325,000 yet your data says only 250.000 deaths250,000 per 35,000,000 = 0.715%, far far lower than the 9.5% stated.
0.715% corresponds to number of medical error deaths per hospitalizations (living and dead).
9.5% corresponds to number of medical error deaths for those that died after being hospitalized (dead only).
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The Johns Hopkins report states "...based on a total of 35,416,020 hospitalizations, 251,454 deaths stemmed from a medical error, which the researchers say now translates to 9.5 percent of all deaths each year in the U.S."
This is consistent with considering only inpatient in my analysis.
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9 minutes ago, Mekong said:
Medical Errors apply to both inpatients and outpatients yet you are applying all medical errors to outpatients only.
Less than 1% of Hospital Visits result in an overnight stay i.e. Inpatient.
I may need medical error death rates for inpatient, outpatient, and outside hospitals. But it depends on how Johns Hopkins got the 10%— did they included them all or just inpatient deaths.
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7 minutes ago, cavanami said:
Not every person catches covid, so many have no covid event in their lifetime.
Maybe look at the testing and something like 10 ~ 30% show a covid infection, so I would work with the 10 ~ 30% numbers.
Then there are those that have covid and show no symptoms??? Very strange virus...
This analysis assumes you have covid, simple as that. This is a "If you have covid, what is the likelihood..." analysis.
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43 minutes ago, Mekong said:
Something fundamentally wrong with your maths.
Medical Errors occur by Hospital admittance and no duration of stay. One of major Medical Errors is misdiagnoses, if misdiagnosed it occurs on day one, you won’t have 20 occurances if patient hospitalized for 20 days.
Therefore your 20/40 (50% Lifetime) becomes a more realistic 1/ 40 or 2.5%
2,5% of 10% is 0.25% Medical Error Death Rate for Covid and not 5% as you miscalculated
This is a generalized (back of an envelope) evaluation which simply assumes that medical error that causes death occurs (during the 40 days that an average person spends) in a hospital during his lifetime. What type of medical error or whether that error happens on day one or day 40 is irrelevant because of the simple and general nature of this analysis. This assumption, however, may be lacking because some medical errors deaths could occur outside the hospital, such as in a doctor's office, in an ambulance, etc. The fraction outside the hospital can be incorporated once it is known.
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5 hours ago, Coss said:
"Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime" so this assumes an average person living an average time, say 70 years.
Meaning 'medical error' has 70 years, to have a go at the person.
Covid has only been around for say, ~1 year, so 3% per annum, it's only had a really short time, to have a go at an average person.
I'm doing this for fun, so see below.
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if we take a population number of 1,000:
average age on death = 70 yrs - Medical error (10%) kills 100 bods in 70 years
Covid on the other hand kills 3% per annum - so 30 bods a year
But if Covid had had 70 years, to have a go at the population, surely the number of dead bods would be 30 x 70 = 2,100, can you see where I'm heading with this?
Covid does not kill 3% per annum; it kills 3% per event. Event is when you have Covid. In my analysis, above, I assume one Covid event per person during lifetime. But if a person catches Covid again, the numbers are the same.
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On 1/4/2021 at 1:15 AM, zzzz said:
Here’s the link to this info at Johns Hopkins website https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/releases/study_suggests_medical_errors_now_third_leading_cause_of_death_in_the_us
The 10% corresponds to the dead. For the living, the odds are 0.1% because only 1% of the population die yearly. So, a better comparison should be 0.1% dead from medical errors vs. 3% dead from Covid. My previous comparison above is not correct based on this logic. A person with Covid appears more likely to die from Covid than medical errors with this approach.
I’m inclined now to think otherwise based on some new assumptions:
A US person average about 40 days in hospital during lifetime (https://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb246-Geographic-Variation-Hospital-Stays.jsp)
Covid patient average about 20 days in hospital (https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_8ab408ad-8fb0-5f74-8d57-11e586bd8a4f.html)
With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used.
Covid death rate is 3%
Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime
Medical error death rate for Covid patients = (With Covid, 50% of average lifetime hospital stay is used) * (Medical error death rate is 10% over lifetime) = 5%
Since medical error death rate for Covid patient (5%) is higher than Covid death rate (3%), an average US person with Covid will likely die from medical error than from Covid.
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2 hours ago, chocolat steve said:
As it stands now. Trump is kingmaker....
You mean he's a convict maker. He has turned many associates into convicts in the last few years. His behavior has gotten so bad that people and businesses are dropping him like a hot potato. Because he is a flight risk and danger to society, he should be locked up at least until they can finish prosecuting him. A kingmaker??????
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The overtaking of the Capital reminds me of the Soviet Union collapse when Yeltsin climbed on top of a tank and became the new leader. In this case, however, it looked like a half-attempted coup by Trump. A big mistake on his part. There will be a price to pay for all involved. Trump lied as usual (he told the terrorists that he would go there with them) and watched the whole thing on TV, unlike Yeltsin who was in the action on top of a tank.
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It doesn't look good for the Republicans: impeached one term president and now they may lose the Senate as well as the House.
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Per 100 does not mean the sampling is limited to 100. It could be millions.
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4 hours ago, Coss said:
Thanks for that link, good info. As kong noted, does this mean that the USA health system really is f**ked?
Money first.
If you compare the number of Covid deaths per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio, Johns Hopkins University https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality), US healthcare looks better than Canada, Great Britain, or Germany.
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Here’s the link to this info at Johns Hopkins website https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/releases/study_suggests_medical_errors_now_third_leading_cause_of_death_in_the_us
The 10% corresponds to the dead. For the living, the odds are 0.1% because only 1% of the population die yearly. So, a better comparison should be 0.1% dead from medical errors vs. 3% dead from Covid. My previous comparison above is not correct based on this logic. A person with Covid appears more likely to die from Covid than medical errors with this approach.
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Patient safety researchers at John Hopkins University have found “10 percent of all U.S. deaths are now due to medical error,” making it the third leading cause of death in the United States.Jun 27, 2019
Center for Justice & Democracy › sp... -
55 minutes ago, My Penis is hungry said:
I've been to the doctors 10 times at least this year,
You're saying I know have a very high chance of dying next time I go and get a script from a doctor?
No. I’m trying to determine what the 10% is. But medical errors are common where I live.
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4 hours ago, buffalo_bill said:
Mr zzzz, if you say 10% of (what ? ) die from medical errors, there is no statistical chance for a 3% deathrate left for any other group of sick people because they are also suffer from the 10 % rule. If the 3 % Covid-deaths are true, your 10 % error-rate is automatically false on the other hand.
You tell me. I’m trying to find the answers.
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3 hours ago, khunsanuk said:
Hi,
"If you do a Google search on the subject, it pops up that medical error is the third leading cause of death in US."
And thus it must be true 😜
Sanuk!
There was something in the news recently about whether or not web sites should be held responsible for the truthfulness of their contents. Google determines what pops up during a search. They aren’t suppose to mislead people.
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On 12/31/2020 at 7:49 PM, baa99 said:
Do you have a cite for this? What I see is that accidents (vehicular, falls, drowning, etc.) is the 3rd leading cause of death.
The claim that medical errors are the third leading cause of death in the US has always rested on very shaky evidence; yet it’s become common wisdom that is cited as though everyone accepts it. But if estimates of 250,000 to 400,000 deaths due to medical error are way too high, what is the real number? A study published last month suggests that it’s almost certainly a lot lower and has been modestly decreasing since 1990.
If you do a Google search on the subject, it pops up that medical error is the third leading cause of death in US. I believe that the probability of dying as a result of medical errors is about 10%. I don't remember where I got this 10% number but it was from a reliable source a few decades ago. Here's the eye opener: if what I believe is true that (1) your chance of dying with Covid is 3% and (2) your chance of dying from medical errors is 10%, then the treatment is worse than the disease for Covid. I tried to find this 10% (probability of dying from medical errors) a few days ago via a Google search but no luck. Maybe you can find it.
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For some diseases, the treatment is worse than the disease, itself. Medical error is the third leading cause of death in the US, behind cancer and heart disease. It looks like the death rates for people with Covid is about 3%. If death rates of untreated people with Covid is less than that from medical errors, then the treatment is worse than the disease. Has anyone seen any data regarding death rates of untreated vs. treated people with Covid and death rates from medical errors?
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Just updated to iOS 14.3 and it works great. It’s a good idea to update, especially if you are having issues. One of the things updates do is fix bugs.
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iOS14.2 is working fine on my phone. I've been using this iPhone for about 2 years now. It's a lot better than the Android phone I used before this one.
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On 12/20/2020 at 9:23 AM, Palatkik said:Ma Rainey's Black Bottom [2020]Tensions rise when the Mother Of The Blues arrives at a Chicago studio in 1927. Comes across overly dramatic, since it is based on a Pulitzer prize winning play, some might prefer a lot more music and less talk, but overall worth seeing.
I couldn't get though the first 30 minutes. To me, the leading lady (Voila Davis) was not watchable.
The Covid-19 thread
in News
Posted
I got a response to the above from a statistics forum that is interesting:
“There is a threshold for being admitted. A person with an oxygen saturation level under 90% isn't going to have a choice to be admitted or not. You have to think about things as conditional probabilties. Probability of dying given you are sick enough to be admitted is the setting.
Hospital treatments aren't that complex, maybe antiviral, anti-inflammatories, monoclonals, plasma, and supportive oxygen. The risks would come from individual risk factors (comorbidities, and immune responses [cytokine storms]) and nosocomial infections, but there are covid units so risk to other pathogens is low.
The risk of medical error shouldn't be on the mind since these people would have no other option”