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Thai baht storms to 21-month high


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The Thai baht hit a 21-month high on Tuesday, reflecting confidence that political turmoil is unlikely to degenerate into violence or bleed into the broader economy.

 

The baht hit Bt32.32 to the dollar in morning trade, up 3.2 per cent on the year, and continued a strong run in spite of opposition demonstrations that have drawn tens of thousands of red-shirted protesters on to the streets of Bangkok to demand the government’s resignation.

 

It is now understood that the red shirts cannot overthrow the government, that the government has the solid support of the military,†said Supavud Saichua, managing director of Phatra Securities in Bangkok.

 

The last time the opposition took to the streets, in April, troops had to resort to firing live rounds to quell rioters. There had been widespread fears of even worse violence during this latest round of demonstrations, but they have so far proved unfounded. The administration of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has emerged looking stronger and more in control of what remains a deeply divided country.

 

Mr Supavud said: “Abhisit looked weak back in April, but now his government looks like it will last longer than many expected.â€Â

 

In the longer term, the seemingly unstoppable rise of the baht has been driven by the global recovery – exports grew 31 per cent year-on-year in January – but the effect has been amplified in recent months by capital inflows into the stock exchange. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index has risen 4.65 per cent over the past week.

The Bank of Thailand gave an upbeat assessment on Tuesday.

 

“Foreign investors are still confident as money is still flowing into the stock markets,†said Suchada Kirakul, an assistant governor at the bank.

 

“If the situation is going like this with no violence, the market should be doing fine,†she said.

 

Most Asian regional indices have risen as international investors try to cash in on the global recovery.

 

“Emerging markets everywhere are going up and our market has lagged in the past,†said Mr Supavud. He added that investor interest in Thailand is returning as confidence in the country’s political stability strengthens.

 

Finance ministry spokesman Eknitti Nitithanprapar said that the central bank was intervening in the markets, but only to smooth volatility, and said the government was not over-concerned about the appreciation. He said: “The baht is appreciating in line with other regional currencies, even though it has appreciated a bit more because of capital inflow.â€Â

 

So far this year, the South Korean won has risen 2.7 per cent against the dollar, the Indonesian rupiah has gained 2.8 per cent and the Malaysian ringgit has climbed 3.1 per cent.

 

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3fb8c652-3119-11df-8e6f-00144feabdc0.html

 

 

 

 

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