kamui
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Posts posted by kamui
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Just received this email in my mailbox from a French magazine (of which I have never heard of):
BRAIN TEA PARTY
SOIREE ELECTIONS US
Venez fêter avec Brain la réélection de l'islamiste Barack Obama
@ la Terrasse du Batofar
- Entrée libre -
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Frum says, “My National Post column describes why the Tea Party has caused Republicans to lose elections that seemed well within their grasp.†If Romney loses the race, Frum believes the reason will be simple: “The Tea Party struck again.â€
By now anybody should now that the GOP's move to the radikal right did damage Romney and the local candidates extremely.
During the nomination process Romney had to play to the hard right and all moderate local GOP candidates were erased. If he would have been able to paint himself as a moderate from the beginning he wouldn't have been forced to an endless stream of flip flops which is haunting him until today. IMHO if Romney hadn't muddled his position so much I would lead in all polls today.
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Will Obie One get indicted
for the 100 plus deaths as a result of Sandr?
Why do you write such a BS?
Anyway:
President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.
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The filling stations. Couldn't someone in the oil business figure out what stations have electricity and direct the tanker trucks to those so that the ones that are open have enough petrol and don't run out as long lines of vehicles still waitiing. In one scene on the tele the police had to advise people who had waited for hours that the gas station was out of petrol.
That's a minor problem actually.
Scientist did sound alarm for years that a catastrophe like Sandy would hit NY due to climate changes and rising sea levels.
Making NY (and other costal cities) flood proof would cost billions and the city hasn't even begun to think about proper flood protection.
Why? Because the majority of the USA Americans doesn't believe in climate change and Big Oil and other groups are aggressively lobbying against any changes in US politics in regard to climate change.
We all know that the US infrastructure (highways, bridges, waterworks, e.g.) is crumbling. The climate change will make it even worse.
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NPR today apologized to four-year-old Abigael Evans, of Fort Collins, Colo., after learning that one of their reports on the 2012 election was the cause for her tears.
"On behalf of NPR and all other news outlets, we apologize to Abigael and all the many others who probably feel like her," NPR's Mark Memmott writes. "We must confess, the campaign's gone on long enough for us, too. Let's just keep telling ourselves: 'Only a few more days, only a few more days, only a few more days.'"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjrthOPLAKM
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And why is it a stupid index? Because it is not putting the US at 1? Maybe you should look around you and see that us no longer nr 1....
Or maybe it is just you that is stupid?
W
Did you start the day without coffee?
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if all the greedy euro garbage including swedes kept their thieving grubby mitts out of the north american continent it would be a land of non university educated peaceful natives making their living hunting and farming. its europes frankenstiens monster europe founded!!!!
Could you repeat this in English?
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That's a pretty stupid index then.
Hehehe, just shoot the messenger, if you don't like the message.
Anyway it's well known that in Scandinavia for example the education systems are ecxellent - much better than in Germany for example. They have nearly no drop outs. Kids with problems get personal support from year one. Math/language skills, e. g. are leading world wide.
Now look at USA where you have millions without a degree and who can't even read a newspaper. How will the USA be able to compete with countries like China where the society is obsessed with education?
IMHO that's a ticking (unemployment) time bomb.
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USA falls behind the most "socialist" countries in Western Europe.
U.S. Prosperity Slides in Index That Ranks Norway No. 1
By Simon Kennedy - Oct 29, 2012
The U.S. slid from the top ten most prosperous nations for the first time in a league table which ranked three Scandinavian nations the best for wealth and wellbeing.
The U.S. fell to 12th position from 10th in the Legatum Institute’s annual prosperity index amid increased doubts about the health of its economy and ability of politicians. Norway, Denmark and Sweden were declared the most prosperous in the index, published in London today.
With the presidential election just a week away, the research group said the standing of the U.S. economy has deteriorated to beneath that of 19 rivals. The report also showed that respect for the government has fallen, fewer Americans perceive working hard gets you ahead, while companies face higher startup costs and the export of high-technology products is dropping.
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http://www.bloomberg...orway-no-1.html
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Lets say i agree with his assessment of Obama, is Romney an improvement. Obama ghs being critiqued for not being progressive enough essentially. I dont see any thing Republicans can say to counter except they will keep their promise to be less progressive.
Obama was never a progressive. I remember German commentators saying this before the election when Obama visited Berlin and 200.000 enthusiastic people showed up to listen to him. The commentarors basically said that from a European point of view that he is a conservative. And basically he is with some liberal elements in regard to health care, gay- and women rights.
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New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,†is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,†says pollster Ed Goeas.
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Yep, two new swing state polls show Obama being ahead.
In the end its all 'poll-porn', I guess polls are better than sex for members of the political class...
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but lets be honest the american campaigns are far more entertaining than you drab old germans!!
From the outside of course. What I have heard is that voters in US spin states are being flooded with ads. The media market seems to be so saturated that some SuperPac's can't get airspace anymore. I wouldn't want to be forced to watch tv or listen to radio in Florida:
see here: http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620
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The smaller states will never let the electoral college die. It would mean they'd be completely ignored by presidential campaigns and would have no bargaining power at all.
The electoral college was created at a time when there were no political parties. The idea was the ordinary folks (then mostly farmers) would vote to choose people they trusted to meet to select a new president and vice president. That was a fun time when the top vote getter became the prez and the #2 the veep. Thus we'd end up with either an Obama-Romney or Romney-Obama administration.
The only way the electoral college is going to be changed is assigning it by popular vote. Since California has 2 senators and 53 congressmen, that would mean the 2 senate votes went to the top vote getter, then the votes were assigned by congressional district. Say Obama carries 30 districts. He would get 2 + 32 = 34 electoral votes. Romney would get 21 for the districts he had carried. As it is now, Obama is going to get all 55 electoral votes.
And that is why neither party really wants to change the system. They love the electoral college when it helps them, hate it when it hurts then. But it is clear it has to be revised.
The whole election system in the USA is completely fucked up:
- shady outside money starts to dominate the elections
- voter ID laws which will change the next election in 2016
- generally way too much money needed to become elected. There is no place for new parties with new ideas. Both candidates are spending around 1 billion USD and it gets worse every four years.
- outdated electoral college system. 8 years ago the election was decided by several hundred votes in Florida (and decided by one GOP election official)
- outdated or malfunctioning or hackable voting machines
- the endless 24/7 election spin cycle. There are days in which actually nothing new can be reported. USA media seem to be absolutely hysteric about any coffee cup dropped by a campaign surrogate.
- way too long election season. The whole crazy thing started about 6 months ago already.
Compared to Germany:
- Every party gets a limited budget for advertising e.g. Not outside money is permitted
- Every party gets limited airtime for adverts. Even small and obscure parties get a certain amount of airtime (which makes some of the ads really funny, since they look so amateurish and the people slogans involved can be quite entertaining)
- really negative attack ads and character assassination ads are not being liked (not permitted?)
- not an endless 24/7 election spin cycle.
- fixed duration of the election season for adverts, posters, e.g.
and of course 1 man 1 vote
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US soldiers pay no tax ? Did I read that correctly ?
We had to pay tax when I served in the Aust Army, and I was earning all of 25K pa as a Lance-Corporal in 1990..... sure, heavily-subsidided food and housing, free medical etc, but it was still a low wage compared to many city slickers.
(even as recruits, where you get paid SFA, we still had to pay tax)
They don't pay income tax. I don't know about payroll tax (which is different in the US)
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This about sums it up for me..... I.e., confused.
You know that's BS right? You want soldiers, elderly and students to pay income tax?
Anyway, most US citizens pay taxes, it's just not income tax.
- these figures cover only the federal income tax and ignore the substantial amounts of other federal taxes — especially the payroll tax — that many of these households pay. As a result, these figures greatly overstate the share of households that do not pay federal taxes. Tax Policy Center data show that only about 17 percent of households did not pay any federal income tax or payroll tax in 2009, despite the high unemployment and temporary tax cuts that marked that year.[5] In 2007, a more typical year, the figure was 14 percent. This percentage would be even lower if it reflected other federal taxes that households pay, including excise taxes on gasoline and other items.
- Most of the people who pay neither federal income tax nor payroll taxes are low-income people who are elderly, unable to work due to a serious disability, or students, most of whom subsequently become taxpayers. (In years like the last few, this group also includes a significant number of people who have been unemployed the entire year and cannot find work.)
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I wouldn't disagree with that article. In some ways it has a lot in common with Bush's campaign in '04. He's taking a page out of the Republican page book and using it against them. I don't agree with it but I would suggest its hypocritcal of the Republican party to complian about it.
Take away the rhetoric. Looking purely at the issues and each candidates views on them and I think there is a big difference.
The Dems seem now to be on par with the GOP in negative advertising and attack ads. That's going on since months. Of course we all know that's straight from the GOP playbook from previous elections - but of course the GOP and connected right wing fringe groups was and is much worse with it's Swift boating attacks.
For example right wing media are currently promoting two videos:
- one that Obama is the son of a communist leader who took nude photographs of Obama's mother
- second a video of Obama's live birth in Kenya.
The first video is being said to be mailed in thousands of copies to voters in swing states.
There is nothing like this produced by radical Dem supporters.
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Of 8 national polls (ABC, Gallop, ect.) only one has Obama ahead.
It looks that they are in a tie now. Obama seems to have gained in 5 of 6 polls now. Considering the margin of error the pollsters have no idea who will win.
Momentum wars
By: Glenn Thrush and Jennifer Epstein
October 25, 2012 07:25 PM EDT
In the past 10 days, Mitt Romney’s campaign has gone from Big Mo to Slow Mo.
Like a shark that must swim forward and fast, the Romney campaign needs to maintain its forward momentum — and its heady narrative of an irresistible finish-line surge — despite an increasing pile of polling data pointing to a race that has stabilized since Barack Obama’s disastrous performance at the Oct. 3rd debate in Denver.
“Narrative†is an overrated and perishable commodity in politics. But maintaining the perception of momentum has become critical to a challenger banking on a wave of last-minute enthusiasm to defeat an incumbent with a distinct electoral map advantage and small leads in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.
(See also: POLITICO's swing-state map)
The problem: despite a dramatically improved Romney position following the third and final presidential debate on Monday, his momentum in recent polls has slowed discernibly, owing, in part, to Obama’s stronger performances in the face-offs on Long Island and in Boca Raton.
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http://www.politico....2902.html?hp=t1
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Convert it to Lao kip and go live with Cos.
Or to Cambodian Riel. A Chinese women was just fined 2 Mio Riel for destroying a photo of the demised king. That' s 500 US$...
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The first polls give Obama an advantage:
Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
By NATE SILVER
Instant-reaction polls following Monday night’s debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner.
A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 53 percent giving it to Mr. Obama, 23 percent to Mitt Romney and 24 percent declaring it a tie. Mr. Obama’s margin of victory in the poll was slightly wider than Mr. Romney’s following the first presidential debate in Denver, which a similar CBS News poll gave to Mr. Romney at 46 percent to 22 percent.
Other polls, conducted among a broader group of voters rather than just undecided ones, suggested a smaller margin for the president.
A Public Policy Polling survey of voters in 11 swing states who watched the debate found them giving it to Mr. Obama, 53 percent to 42 percent.
A CNN poll of registered voters who watched the debate put Mr. Obama ahead, 48 percent to 40 percent. That was similar to Mr. Obama’s 46-39 margin in a CNN poll of the second debate, and much smaller than Mr. Romney’s 67-25 advantage in the first one.
An online poll by Google Consumer surveys had Mr. Obama winning, 45.1 percent to 35.3 percent. His roughly 10-point margin in the poll is smaller than in a Google poll after the second debate, which gave it to Mr. Obama by 17 points, or Mr. Romney’s after the first, which he won by 22 points.
There is, obviously, some disagreement on the magnitude of Mr. Obama’s advantage — the polls surveyed different types of voters and applied different methods to do so.
But averaging the results from the CBS News, CNN and Google polls, which conducted surveys after all three presidential debates along with the one between the vice-presidential candidates, puts Mr. Obama’s margin at 16 points.
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I did gods work in Iraq, Afgan, Africa, and several other places.
I guess it was not easy doing this in Afghanistan, wearing a black suit and riding a bicycle.
I guess that's why Romney went to France.
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Who will win the debate tonight?
And will the winner take all, i.e. win the election?
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I was a first year university student when JFK was shot, and I have never forgotten it. I was in Basic Combat Training when Bobby Kennedy was shot, and I also recall when Reagan was shot. You think such threats are boring? Fair enough ... hope you are right.
Generally I think it's a valid topic. But don't you wonder why right wing blogs pushing this topic 4 weeks before the election? It seems that painting it as problem especially for Romney is to divert attention away from threats from the right against Obama. And of course it fits into the image that like Obama who has been called by the right a fascist, socialist, as anti-american, un-patriotic, etc., his followers are the same: violent radicals who want to destroy the country.
Secret Service says number of threats against president 'overwhelming'
According to the Secret Service, the president is the most threatened person in the U.S., regardless of political party. He is not made aware of all threats against him, however, because Kierstead said the "sheer number would be overwhelming and, frankly, distracting."
http://mynorthwest.c...ts-overwhelming
AND
Since Mr Obama took office, the rate of threats against the president has increased 400 per cent from the 3,000 a year or so under PresidentGeorge W. Bush, according to Ronald Kessler, author of In the President's Secret Service.
Some threats to Mr Obama, whose Secret Service codename is Renegade, have been publicised, including an alleged plot by white supremacists in Tennessee late last year to rob a gun store, shoot 88 black people, decapitate another 14 and then assassinate the first black president in American history.
Most however, are kept under wraps because the Secret Service fears that revealing details of them would only increase the number of copycat attempts. Although most threats are not credible, each one has to be investigated meticulously.
http://www.telegraph...et-Service.html
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Secret Service 'Aware' of Threats Against Romney
Twitchy reports that "Post-presidential debate, Obama supporters renew vows to murder Mitt Romney." The threats are numerous--and explicit and graphic. Many call for Romney's murder or assassination.
The Secret Service confirms it is "aware" of the threats against Romney, a spokesman for the federal agency confirms.
"The Secret Service is aware of this and will conduct appropriate follow up if necessary," Brian Leary, a spokesman for the United States Secret Service, says in an email.
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You seem to be fascinated by right wing bloggers fear of pro Obama rioters and anti-Romney threats. As if the US electorate had just become violent in the past 2 months...
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Which poll to believe?
GALLUP: Mitt Romney Now Has A Gigantic 6-Point Lead Over Obama
The only poll that counts is the one on 6 November (and in the back rooms afterwards).
You'll find the answer here:
Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces?
By NATE SILVERPresident Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were 64.8 percent as of Tuesday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, down slightly from 66.0 percent on Monday.
The forecast will not yet reflect any effects from Tuesday night’s debate in New York, any impact of which will require a few days to become apparent in the forecast.
Tuesday featured an interesting set of surveys, however. While Mr. Obama’s numbers were middling on the whole, one set of them implied that the polls may be inclined to overstate the effect of events like the party conventions and the debates.
Mr. Obama’s poorest set of numbers came from a pair of national polls. A weekly survey conducted by Public Policy Polling for the blog Daily Kos had Mitt Romney ahead by four points among likely voters. So did the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Romney hitting 50 percent of the vote for the first time.
It would be terrific news for Mr. Romney if he were consistently at 50 percent in the polls. That threshold would ensure that he could win (or at least tie) the popular vote, even without picking up any additional support from undecided voters.
But other national polls published on Tuesday were not in agreement with the Gallup and Public Policy Polling numbers. Rather, three of the six national polls published on Tuesday had Mr. Obama leading the race. The same three polls also had Mr. Obama improving his numbers from the previous edition of the same survey, while the other three had him declining.
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What to make of this pattern? Not much, I don’t think. On Monday, the national polls did seem to form a nice, tight distribution, clustered around the mean. On Tuesday, they didn’t. If the differences persist, they will be worthy of our attention, but the strong suspect here is simply statistical noise.
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http://fivethirtyeig...gerate-bounces/
Usa Thread
in Non-Thailand News
Posted
I think Afghanistan will end within the next years, regardless who will win. But military spending won't go down. The military industrial complex is way too strong.