baa99

6 hours ago, Coss said:

Yes, I wondered about the food, I remember the Jewellers, I hadn't noticed the food though.

Carrot-Carat same-same. 

How much is a fake certificate from Dr. Somchai? 

I wonder about the Thai military. The military bases would be an ideal place for the CV-19 to spread rapidly.

5 hours ago, zzzz said:

Do you have a link for that 30? It’s highly unlikely that only 30 people in China died from the seasonal flu. 

The total number of flu deaths last year was 144, compared with 56 in 2016 and 41 in 2017.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201902/22/WS5c6f11daa3106c65c34eaaf7.html

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-02-21/why-arent-people-in-china-dying-of-the-flu-101382286.html

China usually reports like 30 deaths caused by the flu each year.

I am sure the close relationship of Laos and China is the reason there is not a single case of CV-19 in the whole of Laos. It is through the diligent efforts of Chinese tourists and business travellers that the virus has not spread throughout the glorious land of the LRP. 

It's like Sunday morning.

I wonder if there is a recent spike in pneumonia deaths. The patients were never tested for CV so just placed in the pneumonia statistics.

Is the BTS as full as ever?

15 hours ago, buffalo_bill said:

Til recently there have been hoards of Chinamen in Thailand, there MUST have been infected individuals between them. The virus is everywhere now to various degrees but why only 180 cases in Siam? Velly ssatrange.

Did you see the price of the test, >5k baht? It is the lack of testing in Thailand is the reason for the small number of confirmed cases.

Plus there is a big economic incentive not to get tested. Imagine a construction crew and one worker gets ill. Would he get a test knowing he could lose his job? Would the crew boss report a worker is ill knowing it could shut down his construction crew for 2 weeks? Would a hotel report a sick maid or clerk knowing it could shut down the hotel for 2 weeks?

The Black Plague strategy!

How important climate is to transmission rate is unclear to me. I adjusted known CV cases by the population of the country for a few countries.

USA           -> 11 per million

Malaysia   -> 13 

Singapore -> 40

Singapore certainly has a warm and humid climate.

I don't have a Thai bank account.

It's worse than the Zombie apocalypse! 

I'm outside of Thailand and my prepaid AIS SIM will expire next month. Has anyone used an online service to top up their SIM? A search shows that ding.com and recharge.com offer this service.

Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. 

https://elifesciences.org/articles/55570

Those hand print scanners at Swampy are good way to spread the virus!

Does anyone believe Laos has 0 cases of CV?

Most Thais know nothing about Songkran, just that it is an opporchancity to drink and drive.

The mortality rate for the corona virus  is ~40X that of the flu.

You are forgetting thermodynamics and statistical mechanics! It is a far simpler problem to determine the final mean temperature at a particular CO2 concentration.

Take an ice cube from the freezer and place in a glass (in a 25C room). To predict the shape of the ice cube as it melts is a very difficult problem. However predicting the final temperature is very easy.

Embassy first, so he can obtain travel documents.

... and a chicken in every pot.

8 hours ago, Coss said:

Less of a prediction - more of the this is the appropriate thread for the post, having content related and so on...

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

Not a post about climate change  being real or not.

 

This link is posted to demonstrate what I've always held to be true in the climate argument. The science is not in.

Now there is some science that is surprising. It doesn't go one way or the other to solve the, pro or anti argument, but in a short period of time, it shows that change, does indeed happen.

 

 It also shows that predicting the future is not something that science is particularly good at. Science is good at demonstrating , fact.

 

So the gist of the article at the above link is that - there is more snow arriving at Antartica, than ice leaving, and, wait for it, if that changes, there could be less in the future...

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years -- I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”

I guess you missed this part of the article. I guess science can't predict a solar eclipse.

Maybe going on a diet would be more beneficial!

... but if your friend was happy living with his TG in his final few months, maybe it was money well spent.