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Everything posted by dean

  1. Trump, if he loses, will have 2.5 months to devise an exit plan. Pardons will be a big part of it, including Penske pardoning Trump when Trump resigns early. However, he will have to face State charges, particularly in New York, over his State taxes. And, I’m sure that he will be involved in a lot of civil lawsuits.
  2. This also applies to most Trump supporters
  3. CS, obviously, marketing ploys don’t affect you but their are a lot of stupid Americans with deep seated prejudices that fall for this kind of marketing BS. I didn’t vote for him in 2016 because his “business genius” consisted of going bankrupt and stiffing contractors. As a building contractor, I have a special place in Hell for people who make a point of stiffing me (fortunately, it’s only happened once and I can personally vouch that he’s in Hell now). I’ll stick with my belief that his track record will be his undoing in the swing States, if all ballots are counted. I hope that the Election is settled by January 6th, or we will have Nancy Pelosi as our new President until the Election is settled. I’ll be back here after all ballots are counted to either give my best “I told you so” speech or eat my words.
  4. That’s the power of marketing versus reality. Fourteen years on The Apprentice, showing himself as one of the great businessmen in the world to millions of viewers, gave him name recognition and a misguided notion of what he could do for the country if he became President. That, and his going low during the Primary and the General Election seasons, gave him a leg up on the other, more qualified, candidates. I still think that his track record, particularly with COVID, makes him extremely vulnerable with non believers that voted for him in 2016. Those voters hated Hillary. While they aren’t enthusiastic Biden supporters, they are receptive to his message that he is one of them and understands their situation. Come election night and through the counting of the last votes, I’ll be looking at what happens in the swing States and expect Biden to win most of them, probably by close to the same numbers that Trump carried them in 2016.
  5. Sorry about that, MM. I was primarily interested in under what conditions Americans could travel to Thailand, as most countries have banned their entry. I’d like to come over on a two month visa, either in January or March. If I am going to be quarantined, it would make sense to fly into Chiangmai rather than Bangkok. At least in Chiangmai, I can spend 2 weeks working on my house. Any ticket out of LAX for under $800 would do. Thai officials should announce soon if the ban through September 30th will be extended. With my luck, I’ll buy the ticket and the second COVID wave will be in full force in January, making a return then unlikely.
  6. It’s what I’ve been saying for the last 6 months. The only difference between the 2016 and 2020 elections is that Trump now has a track record. His base love his track record. The disaffected Democrats that voted for him in 2016, not so much.
  7. But it will affect Trump’s prospects in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. He needs almost all of those swing States to win the Electoral College election. The Democrats in those States didn’t vote for Trump because he is pro life, NRA supporter, immigrant hater and Court packer with McConnell’s help. They voted for Trump because, as a great businessman, he would bring back jobs from China. These people aren’t stupid. Few jobs have come back and now they have proof that he’s not the astute businessman that he claims to be. No, I don’t think the New York Times article will change any true beliver’s vote.
  8. Cav, I think that you can replace violence with retribution, which is was the pod caster described. I’m more partial to limiting Juges to term limits. 18 years have been proposed. I would prefer 10 years. One thing you do have to admit. The process of nominating and approving Judges is broken and has to be fixed, or else 25 years old “scholars” will be nominated out of law school and Parties in control of the Senate with a President in power from a different Party will never take up a nomination under that President.
  9. I thought that the Access Hollywood tape would put a stake in Trump’s election chances 4 years ago. Hopefully, the New York Times article based on 20 years of his tax returns finishes the job. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html
  10. The 2008 Great Recession was caused, in large part, in the relaxation of banking regulations that allowed just about anyone, bed credit or not, to get a house loan. All recessions have been caused under Republican leadership as far back as the 1870’s. Clinton didn’t leave office under a recession but GWB did. Eight or nine months ago, the current bull market set the record for the longest lasting bull market. The American worker is left holding the bag. Foreclosed houses in 2008-2011 and lagging wages compared to gains made by business and the stock market. If there is a second Trump term, it isn’t going to be “Morning in America,” the Reagan slogan in the 1984 election.
  11. I think that Trump’s base cares about the economy but mainly cares about appointing as many anti abortion and very strict constructionist to Federal judgeships and to the Supreme Court. McConnell will start again next month to ram them through, going through January 20th. Concerning how much credit Trump should receive for the economy, he certainly knows how to super charge it by gutting regulations and putting anti regulation and environment Cabinet members (Both appointed and temporary, which he prefers). Unfortunately, to do this and pay for a military increase, he took money from various programs, including agencies that prepare for pandemics and the attire needed to slow the spread of the virus. Ultimately, this super heated economy would have blown up like in 2008, except it probably would not have before the election (which would have made the next 4 years with Trump in charge a disaster). By the end of the year, we will be at around 400,000 dead. I just hope that Trump and Putin don’t decide to concoct some international incident to help Trump’s re-election chances.
  12. He’s using campaign donations to his re-election campaign, to the tune of $58,000,000. Some of that money went to personal lawsuits. To contrast, Obama spent $10,000,000 on similar campaign legal fees.
  13. Actually, you could go back to the Spanish flu/epidemic of 1918. It didn’t come from Spain but, more likely, came from western Kansas on a farm where not much hygiene was practiced. So, we could claim ownership of the two great pandemics of the last 100 years.
  14. So, Donald Trump’s best friend was his younger brother? The younger brother that quit working for Trump when Donald lit into him with great prejudice when his slot machines had a malfunction at the Taj Mahal casino in 1992. The way that he treated his older and younger brothers is consistent with someone that wants to make sure that he is appointed his father’s heir apparent. Then, in the last stages of his father’s life, get him to change his will to the benefit of Donald. I used to like to watch “Dallas” because of the intrigue in the family and the antics of JR. the Ewing family has nothing on the Trump family. I can’t wait to read Michael Cohan’s book about how he acted as Donald’s enforcer.
  15. Even if, as many “experts” are predicting, the Fall second wave hits the U.S. by Election Day and is much worse than the first wave, I’ll vote in person. Too many bad things (caused by Trump) can happen to my mail in ballot.
  16. She would have been in my top 3 but not number 1. Hopefully, this energizes the black vote. I wonder if there was any consideration on what her being on the ticket does to Indian-American voters?
  17. It’s Biden/Harris versus Trump/Pence.
  18. Cav, you must have realized that Trump values loyalty over ability. And family loyalty most of all, which still has its limits. Don Jr. has told the story that, as a teenager, his dad was trying to impress the point that you trust no . But, Don Jr. said, “Itrust you!” Trump said, “No, you trust no one!”
  19. Thanks for the quick response. I didn’t realize no commercial flights from the U.S. were going to Thailand. I’ve been checking dates and costs for flights in October and January and there are plenty of flights listed into Bangkok and a few into Chiangmai. I’m sure the $100,000 COVID insurance requirement will be in place for awhile. My Thai wife, who has a Green Card, would remain in the U.S., so only I would be the only one flying. Since I’m planning on spending $8,000-10,000 dollars on house, as well as a little money on my house near San Kamphaine, I’d prefer to buy a ticket in the $600-800 range, LAX to BKK or $200 more to fly to Chiangmai. I assume that your wife was living in Thailand and you were flying over to rejoin her. Since my wife lives in the U.S., I don’t know how that would affect the long approval process. As a tourist destination, Thailand will at some point revert to easier entry to the country, with the medical COVID detection procedures in place. I’ll just had to wait them out.
  20. At some point, I’m coming over for 2 months to supervise the renovation of my wife’s house in Chiangmai. I think that there is a ban on International travel to Thailand, that expires July 31 unless it is extended. Rumors that I’ve heard is that there is. 14 quarantine for International travelers, plus possession of a hefty health insurance policy that covers COVID-19. After waiting 4 months for American Airlines to refund the $3,800 for 5 round trip trips to Chiangmai this Summer, I have no desire to buy my ticket far in advance. I’m thinking Mid October to mid December, or more likely, the first part of January to the first part of March. I normally fly into Bangkok and fly up to Chiangmai after a day or 2 in Bangkok but would fly directly to Chiangmai to avoid quarantine in Bangkok. At least in Chiangmai, I can quarantine in my own house or my wife’s house while work is being done Does anyone know the latest rules governing travel into Thailand? I’d like to assume that my January date would be safe to plan around but with a possible second wave, I wouldn’t bet my house on it.
  21. If Trump loses, he has 2 and a half months to pardon whomever he wants. I’m sure that he will use that time justly.
  22. There are 3 things that have to happen in November to put the Republican Party in disarray. First is Trump loses. Second, the Senate flips. Third, enough Democrats have to win Governorships and state legislatures to put Democrats in control of redistricting after the results of the 2020 Census are in. If that happens, the Democrats should be in good shape for the next ten years.
  23. Can, the type of pardons (Marc Rich) that you mention happened days before a President left office. For normal pardons, there is a vetting process to follow. For Trump, there is no vetting process. If the accused, or a close relative, can get on Fox News and plead his case, that increases a chance for a pardon 1,000%. If a convict has been on The Apprentice, like your former Governor, that increases their chance for a pardon. If Trump loses the election, there will be a massive amount of pardons granted by him, mainly to his cronies and his friend’s cronies.
  24. I’ve got that bottle, a bottle of Middleton and, of course, Jameson
  25. The lady that is the caretaker for my house has my Schwab ATM card to withdraw money for either things like a water pump for the Lawn sprinkler system or services like mainly yard work. I trust her with it but never transfer money into it until the day before she needs to use it. I usually check the ATM reimbursements at the end of the month and they are usually in the 7 dollars plus change range. The last transaction was for $104 for 3,000 baht (before ATM reimbursement), so maybe she is using a bank that doesn’t charge the 3.9%. If the Coronavirus last up, I plan on coming over for two months next winter to supervise work on my wife’s house with her ex husband, who died last January. It’s in the Hong Dong area of Chiangmai and looks like a typical house in an average sub division. Except that it has Thai toilets and a partial roof. I’ll be using the Schwab card to pay for materials and labor to fix the house up to rent out. If I’m going to be charged 3.9% on top of the 220 fee, I’ll wire the money or carry $9,000 on me when I come over.
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