Weekend rally is a litmus test

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

7 Mar 2010

 

 

Core members are struggling to give the perception that the UDD has evolved into a true people's power movement and risen above simply protecting the personal interests of Thaksin Shinawatra, but has it really?

 

 

The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) told the foreign media and diplomatic corps at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) on Wednesday that its "million-man march" next weekend would be undertaken in a peaceful and democratic way.

 

This is because former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose fate has dimmed following the Feb 26 Supreme Court verdict against him that ordered 46 billion baht of his assets seized, is now desperate to exploit any tool in his arsenal.

 

This includes not only the mass rally, but also employing uniformed thugs. One of these announced the "black-listing" of 53 journalists, members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and other "opponents" of Thaksin, including Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, published on Maj-Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol (Seh Daeng)'s website. The UDD has denied any links to the blacklist.

 

But even though the UDD presents itself as a patchwork of groups wanting to establish an equal society and reinstall the democracy that was taken from the people with the coup of 2006, the lack of clarity in their ideology, tactics, organisation and financial backing gives less credibility to their "beyond Thaksin" objectives.

 

A demonstration in Korat on Friday was disappointing to the UDD leaders due to a low turn-out, but the possibility of violence cannot be ruled out at next week's rally. History has shown political demonstrations which eventually result in a change of government, if not regime change, are accompanied by bloodshed.

 

One thing is sure, Thaksin will use all the tools available to him - including the UDD, mercenaries and the Puea Thai politicians whose no-confidence move against the Abhisit government is coming up in Parliament.

 

Whether or not heads will be cracked in demonstrations does not seem to be a big concern for Thaksin. His obsession now is to change the game. He is hoping that a new election following a dissolution of the government will bring in a Puea Thai led government subservient to him and that later there will be an amnesty on all post-coup measures against him, including criminal cases.

 

But for the UDD this rally is a litmus test to see whether it can widen its platform to address injustice in economic and political undertakings in this country, as some of the core leaders say they would like to see.

 

The UDD has tried to portray itself as a sanctuary for the poor and lovers of democracy by announcing six party principles. These are: Establishing a genuine democracy with His Majesty the King as head of state; overthrowing the bureaucratic system; acting in a strictly non-violent manner; establishing justice and the rule of law; improving the economic well-being of all people; and bringing back the 1997 constitution.

 

Meanwhile, the spiral of social and political disruption caused by coup-ignited polarisation has burdened the populace with fatigue, if not depression. This is especially true of the urban middle class all around the country. They wonder what will be left to look forward to for Thailand later this year - or even after next week's rally.

 

Some are laughing at the boasts of the UDD, as they believe the seasonal heat and the authorities' show of strength will be able to undermine the UDD, at least for the time being.

 

Jaran Ditapichai, one of the 22 UDD board members, speculated that if there were fewer demonstrators after several days, the authorities might resort to a sweeping-up operation, in a similar fashion as the October 1976 unrest where students protestors were violently put down and many killed.

 

"First we want to make clear to the general public that we will not resort to violence," he said.

 

He said the Red Shirt movement has learned a lot of lessons from its failures last April and was now better prepared for the historic march to topple the government in a peaceful manner.

 

At first Mr Jaran dubbed the rally as "a million-man-march", but he conceded that road blocks by security authorities could impede any mass mobilisation.

 

"But at least half a million people, many of them female, will stream into the capital on March 13 in some 50,000 pick-up trucks, [color:red]and certainly Bangkok will become paralysed,[/color]" Mr Jaran predicted.

 

Despite the large-scale rally, he emphasised that there would unlikely be any infiltrations from the other side to instigate violence, as he believes happened last time in Pattaya and Bangkok.

 

Weng Tojirakan, another UDD core leader, said that the violence that erupted last April at the Interior Ministry was due to a plot created by the military and bureaucrats.

 

"Now, we are organising the red movement into zones and we will get them to move systematically into Bangkok. Any steps of the red demonstrators will be announced clearly to the public," said Dr Weng.

 

Mr Jaran said each region has arranged for guards to protect their zones. All in all there were several thousand and they would carry ID cards, he said.

 

The former member of the National Human Rights Commission and member of the now-defunct Communist Party of Thailand (CPT) calculated that the government would not dare to suppress "the biggest peaceful demonstrations in Thai history" and also that the situation "will force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to choose either to act against the people or return the power to the people by dissolving the Parliament".

 

The UDD speakers to the foreign audience at the FCCT last Wednesday also included less ideological icons like Daranee Kritboonyalai, a pro-Thaksin celebrity and a native of Nong Khai, and Sean Boonpracong, the group's spokesbeing.

 

Interestingly, no one mentioned the name of the fugitive PM.

 

The UDD leadership may want the public to perceive their movement as being independent from Thaksin, but they certainly aren't renouncing him. Thida Thavornset, one of the UDD leaders who has been working to set up 18 political education centres nationwide, said in a telephone interview with the Bangkok Post that the media has been unfair to the red group and had never tried to dig deeply to find out why people admire Thaksin.

 

Ms Thida, former Mahidol University lecturer and Communist Party of Thailand member, said the people were not fools. "They like Thaksin because Thaksin policies benefited them. Thaksin is just a symbol for their fight to gain power."

 

Somphan Techa-atik, a humanities lecturer at Khon Kaen University, said it would be difficult to undo the sentiments the people have for Thaksin, in Isan in particular.

 

He added that even the present government had followed in Thaksin's footsteps without thinking about whether this would be good for communities in the long term.

 

[color:red]"What will help shed some light is a swift, transparent judicial process that could pin down Thaksin in one criminal case after another. Then the public could regain confidence and not become directionless," said Mr Somphan. Neither would they be swayed by sporadic demonstrations.[/color]

 

Next week's rally will test whether the Red Shirt movement will be able to pull off a large-scale peaceful demonstration. If it is to survive in this very fragile environment, the UDD must stick to its stated laudable principles and go beyond protecting Thaksin's interests.