Warnings: Dissolution would hurt economy

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

29 Mar 2010

 

 

An immediate House dissolution would seriously impede the government's economic stimulus plan and bring economic recovery to a halt, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Monday.

 

"This is not the right time to for a House dissolution, because it could affect the government's 400 billion baht loan act, the agricultural risk insurance system and other investment projects that are starting up this year.

 

"Under the regulations the government's term in office ends next year anyway, so there's no need to dissolve the House of Representatives now as it would only damage the economy," Mr Korn said.

 

[color:red]Calling a general election at this time would derail many economic projects and it would take about six months to put them back on track again. The government would also lose the opportunity to further the drive the economy forward.[/color]

[color:red]

"The government still has a lot to do during its remaining tenure and I do not understand why the anti-government people want a House dissolution right now," the minister said.

 

There would be no change if the opposition Puea Thai Party won the most seats but could not form a government. The Democrat Party would then set up a coalition government again, he said.[/color]

 

[color:green]"I wonder whether the opposition would accept such an outcome," he said.[/color]

 

Fiscal Policy Office director-general Sathit Rungkasiri said.the country's economic growth could contract by 0.2 to 1.8 per cent this year if the political situation worsens,

 

He said Thailand's gross domestic product for 2010 should expand 4.5 per cent. In Dec 2009, the government projected this year's GDP growth at 3.5 per cent.

 

However, prolonged political conflict could slash the GDP by 0.2 to 1.8 per cent, he warned.

 

"If the anti-government rally is prolonged to the second quarter, but no violence occurs, the GDP would likely be reduced by 0.2 per cent, but if it continues to the third quarter the GDP could see a 0.5 per cent contraction.

 

"The worst case scenario is if the protest continues into the fourth quarter and violent events like airport closures occur. This could pull down the economic growth from 4.8 per cent to just 2.7 per cent," Mr Sathit said.

 

If there is a House dissolution there will be no government to push the fiscal 2011 budget, he added.

 

 

Rink

[SpiceMan]

Hopelessly divided. Not only does the minister not agree with the anti-government voices wanting a House dissolution but he can not even see why they want one. No need to find arguments against people when you can just say you can't understand them.

 

 

[WorldFun]

but at least the PM seemed to have answers for everything in the face to face as well as the upper hand.

gotta give it to him to actually facing up to the red shirts - what more do they want apart from takky back as PM & dems out?

they simply do not have a plan other than 'elections'...

 

failure or success depends whose side you're on I guess?

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/173202/talks-again-ends-in-failure

for the reds with 'nothing to loose' just being in talks is success enough to head back to the provinces without major faceloss & for the PM to offer a shortened term another 9 months while the reds gives him only 9-15days well I know who is holding the long end of the stick yeah...

[Flashermac]

Abhisit:

 

<< The condition for further talks set by Mr Abhisit was that the government would be ready to dissolve the House of Representatives by the end of this year, or about nine months from now.

 

According to the prime minister, some of nine months would be used for a public referendum to let the people decide where the constitution should be amended.

 

Articles for amendent might be based on the six points proposed by a parliament committee on political reform, reconciliation and constitution amendments chaired by Senator Direk Thuengfang.

 

The remaining time would be for the amendment process in parliament. All should be completed in the nine months, or by the end of this year, so that elections could be held under new rules agreed to by the people, Mr Abhisit said. >>

 

The Reds:

 

<< The UDD representatives were persistent in their demand that the House of Representatives be dissolved in 15 days. They said they did not believe the government would be able to do as promised and accused it of trying to buy time.

 

Mr Jatuporn said the UDD's 15-day deadline would give the government a total of 60 days to prepare for the general election, which must be held in 45 days after a House dissolution. >>

 

Weera at least seems to have a brain in his head. Jatuporn is another matter.

 

 

[cavanami]

Hasn't LOS had about 895 constitutions? do they recycle...go green!

[Flashermac]

Instead of amending constitutions, Thais seem to throw them out and start over again from scratch. Maybe that is part of the problem. They are constantly reinventing the wheel. The 1997 constitution had a few flaws. After the coup a new constitution corrected them, but added some more flaws. The Takkyites want to go back to the 1997 constitution, since Takky had found the holes in it and knew how to exploit them.

 

The current constitution pisses off the Reds because it dissolves an entire political party, if the tops dogs are caught fiddling with the vote. That is what happened to TRT and it's successor. Seems bizarre to ban the entire party, but something has to be done to try to at least lessen the bribery.