Abhisit vs the Red Shirts, the Water Melons and the Tomatoes

[WorldFun]

A few interesting possible outcome scenarious at the end - maybe was posted al

ready, but then I missed it - sorry?

 

http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong/2010/04/09/entry-3

 

"April 9, 2010

 

Slightly after 10:00 PM, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva went on national TV to reaffirm his position that he would resort to law and order to restore calm to the capital. He has been away for most of the day, yet another day of his devastating defeat.

 

The Red Shirts were angry that their PTV satelllite channel was switced off by the government. In the afternoon, they travelled all the way from Rajaprasong Intersection to reach the ThaiCom relay station in Ladlomkaew, Pathumthani, where they confronted the military. They demanded that the Red Channel signal be restored.

 

Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister, threatened that he would not allow the Red Shirts to take over ThaiCom. Not long after his remarks, the Red Shirts succeeded in rounding up the ThaiCom relay station. Turmoil ensued, with a tear gas thrown into the crowd. But the military force guarding the station soon turned into jelly fish. They conveniently gave in to the Red Shirts, who took over ThaiCom. Soon the PTV signal was restored, much to the Red Shirts' elation. PTV aired its live coverage of the protest throughout the afternoon until it was blacked out again in the late evening.

 

The Red Shirts have been successful in most of their campaign operations, which have departed from peaceful demonstrations. They have invaded the office of the Election Commission, stormed Parliament and taken over ThaiCom in a matter of days.

Abhisit is feeling frustrated. He has declared a state of emergency since Wednesday, April 7, 2010. But the Emergency Operation Command, headed by Suthep, has yet to lift its fingers on the Red Shirts. The crisis situation appears to have deteriorated as the Red Shirts smell victory. They have succeeded into turning Abhisit into a lame-duck government.

 

Many would be wondering who these three hard-headed buddies are. Yes, who are Veera Musikaphong, Jatuporn Phromphand and Natthawut Saikua? Why could they negotiate with the prime minister on the same table and on equal term? Why could they occupy the Phanfah Leela Bridge and the Rajaprasong Intersection without any resistance from the authorities at all? Whenever the police and the military authorities go to see them, they have to act very politely and seem ready to bow to the three hard-headed buddies' demand. Why were the Red Shirts allowed to threaten the Election Commission? Why was Arisman Phongruengrong allowed to storm Parliament and caused the whole Cabinet members and the parliamentary staff to escape through the back exits like rats? It should be noted that Arisman stormed the Pattaya Summit and caused the regional leaders to run away in all directions. This same guy is still alive and kicking, causing the same havoc to the National Assembly. Why were the Red Shirts allowed to take over ThaiCom with half-hearted defence from the security force sent over there to protect the premise?

 

All of these Red Shirts' triumphs one after another look so surreal. Yet they are real.

 

This is not to mention more than 40 incidents of bombings in Bangkok and other parts of the country, which are all politically motivated and have occurred in parallel with the Red Shirts' rallies.

 

This can only be explained by the inaction on the part of Suthep Thuagsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, Gen Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, and Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister. Their inaction or their do-nothing attitude speak volume of the crisis, which is now engulfing the premiership of Abhisit. The prime minister has given them a lot of time since the Red Shirts started their march on March 12. The declaration of the Internal Security Act turned into nothing more than a piece of paper. Now it seems that the declaration of the State of Emergency to raise the security defence to the highest level is in danger of becoming obsolete. The Red Shirts have continued their rally throughout Bangkok as if the State of Emergency were a carnival fair.

 

Abhisit went into a retreat for most of the day today before appearing on TV with Suthep, Gen Anupong and Gen Prawit. He tried to look tough. He admitted another day of defeat by the government in restoring law and order. He said he understood the feelings of many people who could not understand why the Red Shirts had been allowed to traumatise the whole capital.

 

Suthep, Gen Anupong and Gen Prawit wore their usual grim faces. They did not speak a word. Abhisit gave them another chance by saying that he and all of these gentlement would be responsible for enforcing the law and to bring calm back to Bangkok.

 

I feel sorry for Abhisit who has to go on TV and chew the water melons.

 

Once he had declared the Emergency Decree and formed the Emergency Operation Command on Wednesday, Abhisit expected the authorities to issue arrest warrants against the heads of the Red Shirts, followed by a step by step operation to disperse the rally in a tactical way so as to void injuries or loss of lives.

 

It was not until today that the Emergency Operation Command began to issue arrest warrants for 17 leadders of the Red Shirts. They are

 

1. Dr Weng Tojirakarn

 

2. Ms Darunee Kritboonyalai

 

3. Charan Dittha-abhai

 

4. Natthawut Saikua

 

5. Nisit Sindhyphrai

 

6. Veera Musikaphong

 

7. Kokaew Phikulthong

 

8. Kwanchai Phraipana

 

9. Chinawat Haboonpat

 

10. Viphuthalaeng Phattanaphuthai

 

11. Adison Phiangket

 

12. Voraphol Phromikabut

 

13. Lt Pol Vaiphot Arphornrat

 

14. Samrerng Prajamrua

 

15. Visa Khanthap

 

16. Phaijit Aksornnarong

 

17. Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol (Sae Daeng)

 

Yet there have been little attempt so far to arrest these Red Shirt leaders, who continue their rally as if nothing happens. The law is no longer law.

 

The Military shift on neutral gear

 

It is clear that the Military are now challenging the prime minister's command. They do not want to go after the Red Shirts. Suthep would not want to take the action in spite of his seemingly tough words. But his words and his action do not match. Gen Anupong would not want to raise any fingers on the Red Shirts. Gen Prawit insisted that the military would not enforce the Emergency Decree but would only inform the Red Shirts about a need to diperse peacefully. Gen Songkitti Chakabat, the supreme commander, has come out with a strange comment that the Red Shirts' rally at Rajaprasong Intersection was permissible under the democratic rules.

 

Abhisit has given the Emergency Operation Command another chance to act. We'll see what he does next if the Green Shirts continue to do nothing amid the escalating violent behaviour of the Red Shirts on the streets. If the Emergency Operation Command does not work, the prime minister has an option of appointing another team to run it or another military commander to crack down on the Red Shirts' rally. We'll see if he has the mettle to make the tough decision in this hard time.

 

Options ahead

 

#1. The prime minister insists on relying on the Emergency Decree to clean up the Red Shirts from the streets of Bangkok. Then, and only then, he would consider a political solution. He has to address the security concern as the number one priority now.

 

#2. Korbsak Sabhavasu, the secretry-general of the prime minister, is working on a political compromise. The Abhisit government may dissolve Parliament within four months in exchange for the Red Shirts to disperse peacefully. This will be a fast-track election time table. Abhisit previously raised a possibility of a House dissolution between six to nine months.

 

#3. All political parties make one step backward to agree on a national government. Previously, Thailand had only two national governments during the premiership of Sanya Thammasak and Thanin Kraivichien. It seems that Suthep, Gen Anupong, Banharn Silapa-archa and others favour this option.

 

The cake is going to be divided as follows:

Democracts want 5 ministers and a deputy prime minister. Suthep will keep his deputy prime minister, while Korn will hold on to his finance minister.

 

Pheu Thai will get 6 ministers plus a deputy prime minister, interior, industry, ICT, foreign and 2 more portfolios.

 

The premiership will go to a member of the Chat Thai Pattana, which will also muster two Cabinet portfolios. Maj Gen Sanan Khachornprasat will become prime minister in this scenario.

 

Bhumjai Thai of Newin Chidchob will get two ministerial portfolios, compared with three for Peu Pandin.

 

The sensitive defence portfolio will continue to be served by Gen Prawit.

 

The House Speaker will go to some one in the Banharn camp.

 

 

"As I said before, it is all about dividing the cake," said a politician in the government wing.

Suthep is now trying to forge a national government formula.

 

Korn Chatikavanij appears to be increasingly leaning toward the Suthep faction. He held a news conference today to support a non-violence approach to deal with the Red Shirts. He would like the government to have patience to deal with the Red Shirts, who were also Thais.

 

Reading between the line, we can see that Korn's position and the prime minister's are drifting apart.

Abhisit must be shocked that he is now being isolated and surrounded by the Red Shirts, water melons and also tomatoes.

 

#5. If that is really the case, Abhisit may be tempted to run a minority government by removing all the coalition partners from the government and hanging on until a new election. Yes, if, and only if, he has the mettle to do what is imperative."