Tensions Simmer in Bangkok

[Mentors]

BANGKOKâ€â€Antigovernment protesters re-established control over parts of Thailand's capital a day after 21 people were killed in the bloodiest political violence here in nearly 20 years, leaving authorities with a dilemma: Whether to crack down and risk more bloodshed, or give in to the protesters' demands for immediate elections.

 

Complicating the impasse is a deeper debate over the role of Thailand's politically powerful military, which appears unwilling to allow another taste of power to the supporters of populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra, the man the army ousted in 2006.

 

Both "Red Shirt" antigovernment protesters and government officials spent much of Sunday trying to calm tensions after Saturday's violence. At least 21 people were killedâ€â€17 civilians, including a Japanese cameraman for the Reuters news agency, and four soldiersâ€â€and more than 800 injured as demonstrators fought pitched battles with riot police and soldiers across the city. It wasn't clear who started some of Saturday's incidents, though most of the worst fighting occurred after authorities positioned large numbers of troops near protest encampments in downtown Bangkok, raising tensions.

 

Government officials and army leaders said much of the damage was caused by non-military-issue weapons, and said soldiers fired live rounds into the air. A government spokesman said authorities would investigate how the conflicts Saturday got out of control, and promised to maintain order.

 

The U.S. State Department urged both sides to show restraint. The violence spilled into the famous Khao San area of backpacker hostels and bars, and several governments issued travel advisories warning their citizens away from Bangkok.

 

Rally leaders vowed to stay in Bangkok until Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva calls new elections. Protesters urged Thailand's ailing 82-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej to intervene as the havoc threatened to cast a further shadow over the badly damaged tourism sector.

 

"There's no more negotiation. Red Shirts will never negotiate with murderers," one of the rally leaders, Jatuporn Prompan, told protesters on Sunday.

 

Analysts say the armyâ€â€the country's strongest power brokerâ€â€is being thrust against its will to the forefront of the conflict in Thailand, one of Southeast Asia's linchpin economies and an important part of the global supply chain.

 

[color:red]After the military ousted Mr. Thaksin in a coup d'état four years ago, the army-appointed government pushed through a new constitution guaranteeing the army more powers. After that, in December 2008, the military brokered a deal for Thailand's Parliament to elect a new, army-friendly government. Military budgets climbed, while army leaders said they were washing their hands of politics for good. Mr. Thaksin, now 60 years old, fled Thailand to avoid imprisonment following his conviction on a corruption charge in 2008.[/color]

 

[color:red]Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert at Heidelberg University in Germany, says the military is free to operate outside the control of civilian leaders while pretending it is still under the command of a democratic government. In reality, he says, the military has more power now than at any time in recent memory. As the threat of more violence looms, Mr. Chambers says, "the army's strategy will be to preserve the security of the monarchy and the armed forces' own post-2006 enhanced position of power."[/color]

 

The Red Shirtsâ€â€including Mr. Thaksin's supportersâ€â€are pushing back. Well-organized and angered by the way they say Thailand's army and bureaucratic elites have disenfranchised them, tens of thousands have traveled from rural provinces in recent weeks and have taken over parts of Bangkok.

 

Their rallies have closed shopping malls and choked traffic as they press their demand for new elections and test the army's resolve to hold on to its elevated status.

 

[color:red]Army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda is scheduled to retire Sept. 30 in a planned annual shuffle of the army's top brass. He has indicated he wants his conservative deputy, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ucha, to take over. [/color]

Neither Gen. Anupong nor Gen. Prayuth could be reached for comment.

 

[color:red]Both men were key players in the 2006 coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin, and analysts say Gen. Prayuth's promotion to the top job would solidify the control of a traditionalist generation of military leaders who place their loyalty with King Bhumibol and his advisers rather than elected governments. It would also ensure that the anti-Thaksin faction in the army remains in control until at least 2014, when Gen. Prayuth is scheduled to retire.[/color]

 

However, a civilian government needs to sign off on Gen. Prayuth's promotion, and the Red Shirts are pushing for immediate elections. Many analysts agree that a vote now would bring another pro-Thaksin government to power. A Red government might not allow the generals behind the 2006 coup to retain their power. [color:red]Political analysts here say that it is this behind-the-scenes battle for control of the armed forces that underpinned Saturday's savage street fighting.[/color]

 

Something similar happened in 2006, the year of the coup. Mr. Thaksin, a popular telecommunications magnate, had built what analysts regarded as an unshakable support base in Thailand's impoverished but vote-rich rural areas by offering easy credit, debt moratoriums and cheap health care.

The year before, Mr. Thaksin became the only Thai prime minister ever to have been re-elected and the army's top leaders feared he was attempting to expand his influence to the military by fast-tracking his supporters up the chain of command. Their response: Stop Mr. Thaksin in his tracks by staging a coup and eradicating any trace of his fast-growing regime.

 

Soldiers put a soft spin on the takeover, marketing it as Thailand's "Orchid Revolution" and emphasizing that the change of power took place without a shot being firedâ€â€unlike many of the 18 coups the army has staged since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.

 

[color:red]Saturday's shootings leave Gen. Anupong and other top commanders with a dilemma: Whether to let Mr. Abhisit's government sink and take their chances with a new pro-Thaksin government, or to support Mr. Abhisit in an economically damaging and potentially bloodier stand-off until the military shuffle is completed.[/color]

 

So far, it appears the army's top command is continuing to back Mr. Abhisit, who now spends much of his time at an army camp in northern Bangkok.

 

Paul Quaglia, director of Bangkok-based security consultancy PSA Asia, says calling elections now would undermine everything the army has gained since the 2006 coup and that the army's allies in the palace remain opposed to an early vote that could bring an aggressively pro-Thaksin government to power. Nonetheless, "if the army cannot clear the streets without serious loss of life, toughing things out until September will no longer look like a good strategy to staying in power," says Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304168004575177172506231604.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_world

[Flashermac]

Ah ... the evil capitalist WSJ that is so often slammed as pro-establishment by posters here.

 

 

[WorldFun]

well for once this 'wsj spin' does sound pretty much on the money regarding the military's stand.

but politically wise whether PM is still worth holding onto also does not leave much viable options.

 

thus it's really simple. life's goes on (with status quo) & thus a lot of wasted efforts to try changing that!

[Mentors]

Ah ... the evil capitalist WSJ that is so often slammed as pro-establishment by posters here.

 

 

 

there are very good reports from WSJ in the last few days.