Yingluck's uphill battle

[Flashermac]

 

ANALYSIS: Political newcomer has to rise above meddling brother, demanding red-shirts

 

 

 

Despite a rocky road in the wake of the election, it is too soon to tell if Yingluck Shinawatra will stumble if she is chosen to run the country as part of a Pheu Thai Party-led government.

 

Mrs Yingluck has not yet been endorsed by the Election Commission after winning in the July 3 election, in which Pheu Thai soared to a landslide win.

 

The first hurdle for the youngest sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra is proving that she is playing a part in assigning cabinet posts instead of letting her brother control the arrangements. She also has to contend with interference from close associates, including Thaksin's former wife Khunying Pokemon na Pombejra, and her elder sister Yaowapa Wongsawat, and her husband, Somchai, who are trying to muscle members of their own factions into the cabinet.

 

In addition to that, red-shirt members of her party are demanding at least two cabinet posts from her as a reward for their success in bringing in 22-party list members and another 10 constituency representatives to parliament.

 

Another challenge for Mrs Yingluck will be selecting from 12 candidates a defence minister who is acceptable to the old military clique and the army leaders.

 

After all cabinet posts are filled, the road ahead for the former SC Asset executive will be strewn with questions about how her government will live up to its campaign promises, such as a nationwide increase in the minimum wage to 300 baht a day, a 15,000-baht per month starting salary for graduates, and that the rice-pledging scheme will pay 15,000 baht per tonne.

 

These are just some of the daunting tasks facing her as she contemplates life as a potential new prime minister with no political experience.

 

But she might stay longer than expected if she can handle all the pressure that is piling on her.

 

As a political novice, Mrs Yingluck may enjoy a longer honeymoon period than her predecessors did, including outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political scientist at Thammasat University.

 

Voters may be sympathetic to her even if she fails to implement all her party's polices. They may give her another chance in the next election with the hope that she will fulfill the campaign promises over two terms instead, he added.

 

Pheu Thai and its coalition partners will hold 300 seats in the House of Representatives, which ensures that Ms Yingluck will not be disturbed in the 500-member lower house. It may even increase the number of seats held by coalition members if Pheu Thai decides to approach the Somsak Thepsuthin-led Bhumjaithai Party if her party wants to reinforce its political stability later.

 

[color:red]Mr Somjai said Pheu Thai also had strong backing from some mainstream media outlets, including TV and cable stations.[/color]

 

They faced down her opponents, which could discourage opposition members from mounting similar attacks in parliament.

 

She can expect tactics similar to those engineered by Kaewsun Atibhodhi and Tul Sitthisomwong, who before the election called on the Securities and Exchange Commission to decide whether Mrs Yingluck had breached securities law when she gave an apparently false statement to the court.

 

Outside parliament, the Yingluck government will not have problems with some anti-Thaksin groups such as the People's Alliance for Democracy against Dictatorship, since Thaksin successfully turned many of them from foes to friends.

 

The yellow shirts would not oppose Thaksin if Pheu Thai wants him to return home, Mr Somjai said, because they would benefit from a political amnesty which would include both the yellow and red shirts.

 

Yet bringing Thaksin home is not an immediate priority for Ms Yingluck, given that such a move could risk provoking some elements to rise up against her government, he added.

 

[color:red]Chaiwat Khamchoo, director of College of Politics and Governance at King's Prajadhipok Institute, said the most challenging task for Ms Yingluck would be showin she is able to keep Thaksin from meddling in her work.[/color]

 

Thaksin should give her free rein to administer the country and remind her that a strong majority in parliament does not guarantee government stability, he said.

 

[color:red]The government led by Thaksin was ousted partly because it ran the country without transparency, he said. Her success will be judged on her ability to restore the rule of law in the country and the reconciliation she promised during the campaign, he added.[/color]

 

 

by Nattaya Chetchotiros, Bangkok Post

[Guest HonoluluJimmy]

Noodlegate and the rest of tghe rubish will go out tghe window on the 19th.... Good Speed to Yingluck.