All hail the de facto prime minister

[Flashermac]

Bangkok Post

17 July 2011

 

 

Opinion by Voranai Vanijaka

 

 

Yingluck Shinawatra? Isn't she that pretty lady who likes to say "na ka", and not much else?

 

If Newin Chidchob is de facto leader of Bhumjaithai Party, Thaksin Shinawatra is soon-to-be de facto prime minister of the Kingdom of Thailand. We're just waiting for his sister to be confirmed as the nominee prime minister.

 

[color:red]Pheu Thai Party belongs to Thaksin. The government will soon belong to Pheu Thai. Hence, the Thai government will belong to Thaksin.[/color]

 

[color:red]I'm not saying this is a good or a bad thing, but it is what it is, and we must deal with what it is in order to grasp what will be. Of course, the government should belong to the people of Thailand. But what should be isn't necessarily the way it is, and I have said the same thing about the Democrat-led coalition government.[/color]

 

It is like this because the patronage system dominates the fabric of Thai society. And now that the Democrat-led coalition government is nearly no more, it should be the job of the media to scrutinise the coming Pheu Thai-led coalition government, monitor its every move and gesture, investigate its every nook and cranny; be on it like white on jasmine rice.

 

After all, what are checks and balances for? Our job is to be a pain in the gluteous maximus of any government, on behalf of the Thai people, nothing less. This is what should be, but unfortunately not necessarily what will be.

 

Now that we have set things straight, let's take a look at two policies that may be of interest.

 

One of the keys to Thaksin's success is of course his populist policies, which have been copied by other political parties like vendors at Panthip Plaza.

 

He was the first Thai prime minister to adopt the strategy, thanks allegedly to an international PR firm which has earned every-satang-and-then-some in his service.

 

[color:red]Ten years ago, it was easy. Programmes such as the one million baht village fund bulldozed through the parliament. It was taxpayers' money, so it was no difficult thing for the Thai Rak Thai government to simply take from the middle class and give to the poor.[/color]

 

I'm not saying that was a good thing or a bad thing; I'm simply saying it was what it was.

 

[color:red]But the present populist promise to raise the minimum wage to 300 baht across the nation is trickier, as this won't be tax money, but will come from the private sector.[/color]

 

A study by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said the policy will slow Thailand's economic growth. The increase of the minimum wage to 300 baht, along with the promised minimum salary of 15,000 baht for first-jobbers with a bachelor's degree, would mean a total rise in the production costs of Thai exports of 28%, and Thailand's exports account for 70% of our GDP. The food and beverage industry and the cigarette industries will face a 35.02% rise in production costs; the garment and fashion industries 34.45%; the paper and print industries 22.39%.

 

A tripartite committee consisting of employers, labourers and government representatives recommended a compromise; a 40% increase for those in the lowerst income bracket and more tax incentives for the private sector.

 

In short, experts and stakeholders are saying Thailand simply can't finance this campaign promise. Thus Thaksin and his sister are now saying 300 baht for Phuket and Bangkok first.

 

The rest of Thailand will get an ''appropriate'' increase at an ''appropriate'' time. Problem solved? Not likely. According to news reports, those who voted for Pheu Thai are already demanding the fulfillment of campaign promises.

 

Take Phayao province for example. The province has the lowest minimum wage in the Kingdom - 159 baht. Phayao has three MP seats and gave them all to Pheu Thai candidates. As well, Phayao gave 1.8 million votes to Pheu Thai's party-list candidates and only 60,000 votes to the Democrats.

 

Phayao wants that 300 baht minimum wage, promised to the entire Kingdom, by January 2012.

 

What would be the backlash if soon-to-be de facto PM Thaksin doesn't deliver to Phayao, and tens of provinces like Phayao? This remains to be seen.

 

Soon-to-be de facto PM Thaksin also wants to right a past wrong.

 

[color:red]The three southernmost provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani have always had insurgents and separatist movements. But the problem didn't explode until Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai was in government. Some say it's because Thaksin disbanded the joint committee that for all practical purposes governed the troubled provinces, formed from Bangkok representatives and local leaders. There was a compromise, and the system worked, if not well, then at least things were relatively peaceful.[/color]

 

[color:red]But when Thaksin took over the government, he disbanded the committee and ruled the three troubled provinces in his usual CEO style. Hence, the situation imploded.[/color]

 

Some says there are other, even more controversial, reasons Pheu Thai campaigned in the three southern provinces promising the creation of ''Pattani State'' - which means self-government.

 

A Hat Yai University poll from last year showed that in the 14 southern provinces, 88.53% disagreed with self-government for the three troubled provinces. But the same poll in Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani showed 87.61% wanting self-government.

 

Pheu Thai had the right policy to appeal to voters of the three provinces. The results? The Democrats swept Yala and Narathiwat, and split Pattani.

 

So the people didn't want self-government, after all? That would be too simplistic a conclusion.

 

Perhaps they didn't believe the Pheu Thai promise. Perhaps at the end of the day, in Thailand's patronage democracy, one votes according to the instructions of the lords and barons of the region, no matter what.

 

Nonetheless, would it not be interesting if soon-to-be de facto PM Thaksin still sees the policy through? If he does, and things work out for the better, then Pheu Thai may very well gain three more provinces in future elections, slicing off the legs of the Democrats.

 

Opponents of self-government of course dug out the usual argument; if given self-government, the three southern provinces would eventually secede from Thailand. This, however, is about as likely as Pattaya seceding from Thailand and joining the Russian Federation.

 

It doesn't make sense politically or economically. The three provinces won't be able to stand on their own as a country and a union with Malaysia isn't viable. It would cause a geopolitics hailstorm that no one wants and no one can afford.

 

In fact, every single province in the Kingdom of Thailand should have self-government. But that is unlikely to happen, as long as the patronage system, feudal in its very nature, dominates the fabric of the Thai society. Again, we must deal with what is, otherwise we can never achieve what should be.

 

The government of soon-to-be de facto PM Thaksin might be more effective than the Democrat-led government, as history has shown that, for better or worse, Thaksin can get things done. However all would still be for naught. A policy here, a policy there, populist or otherwise, and Thailand's social divide will remain entrenched, as the patronage system dominates the fabric of Thai society - the very system that is well exploited by both the traditional establishment and the new capitalist power represented by the soon-to-be de facto prime minister.

 

[color:blue]The fact is that we are simply changing masters and little else. This, however, doesn't mean that the fabric won't ever change. It will just be slow and painful, no matter who is in charge.[/color]

 

There are a host of other policies in waiting, including the Thaksin-style megaprojects. There will be hits and misses. Bangkok Fashion City and Elite Cards were failures and embarrassments. The 30-baht medical scheme and one tambon, one project were successes and should be applauded - again, kudos to the international PR firm allegedly responsible for these.

 

Barring any coup d'etat or court rulings, it will be interesting to see the fate of this country under the management of soon-to-be de facto Prime Minister Thaksin. Are you excited? Now, count how many times I typed ''soon-to-be de facto''.

 

 

 

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