Talk With Thai Former Prime Minister Abhisit

[Flashermac]

by Michael Yon

 

 

Yesterday I had the honor to speak with two Thai former Prime Ministers. First with Khun Chuan, which I will keep private on background. Second with Khun Abhisit Vejjajiva and his words are important to summarize today.

 

As many people know, in just about two hours from now the judges will make a ruling in the case that effects current PM Yingluck Shinawatra, and much of her cabinet. It is possible that by the end of the day today, we will have no Prime Minster in Thailand.

 

I did not record our conversation and so must accept that if there are any errors in characterization, they are mine. Abhisit's shoulder is still injured from a bad fall, hence the sling. Abhisit's English is native fluency, so no translator was needed.

 

If the court rules against Yingluck today -- which seems probable -- she can either go peacefully or dig in. Abhisit -- who of course is a sharp opponent of the Yingluck government -- believes Thaksin's wise move is to tell his sister Yingluck to step down. If she steps down, she can keep some moral high ground, and possibly win again in the next election, which Abhisit proposes should be in about November. Stepping down can retain her legitimacy.

 

But Abhisit believes that Thaksin would like to force a "soft coup." One where no Shinawatra family members are charged, and the military basically says to Yingluck do not come back to the office because you are fired by the court.

 

Abhisit does not want to see the military, or the monarchy or the courts dragged into this. His reasoning is clear. Keep the peace, keep it all straight and legal through the courts and due process. Reorganize, and let the country move forward without bloodshed. Do these things in ways that are consistent with the Constitution.

 

Abhisit is seriously concerned about an outbreak of violence after whatever happens today. (As am I and many others.)

 

Obviously if there is even a soft coup, this will damage the legitimacy of the next government both internally and with international partners. For instance, the United States has laws that govern how we can work with a government that is empowered by coup. The Thai military clearly does not want to be involved in a coup, as has happened so often in the past. They are trying to move past that era. The military also want the next government to be legitimate and not stained by even soft action. But if serious blood starts to flow, of course the military likely will step in to stop it.

 

Enter Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the massive PDRC. Millions strong. Peaceful. And a force to be reckoned with. PDRC and Whistleblowers in general have support of the military, if mostly passive.

 

Khun Suthep Thaugsuban (สุเทพ เทือà¸à¸ªà¸¸à¸šà¸£à¸£à¸“) has made it the PDRC mission to rip out by the roots the Thaksin Shinawatra patronage system. Suthep wants a full knockout. Total victory over Thaksin/Yingluck and their network. Basically that means Yingluck and many others gone, and preferably for some of them off to prison for their real crimes. Suthep is not manufacturing that criminal acts have occurred. This appears to be certain.

 

Suthep was Deputy Prime Minister when Abhist was PM. Both are Democrats (which in American terms would be somewhat closer to Republicans), though Suthep resigned from the Democrat party to run PDRC, which (PDRC) he whipped into what might be the largest peaceful uprising in world history. Practically nobody outside Thailand noticed.

 

If Yingluck gets a negative ruling a couple hours from now, and if she does not willingly depart office, Abhisit is concerned that Suthep will try to seize power. (Just how Suthep could seize power is a mystery to me. I will try to ask Suthep soon.)

 

Suthep is a very powerful man, but I am perplexed at how he could actually seize any executive power. Anyway, if Suthep does make such a move, Abhisit is concerned that the UDD Reds will respond with violence that could spin out of control. Also, if Suthep could seize some form of power, the government will be illegitimate in the eyes of most Thai, and certainly to international partners like the US.

 

So Abhisit supports dialogue and negotiation, which neither Thaksin nor Suthep care to have. This makes all three main sides unpopular with many people. Some people want no negotiation, and see Abhisit's proposals as weak. Others see Abhisit's proposals as wise, and a chance to avert catastrophe, while maintaining Constitutional legitimacy internally, and international legitimacy. (Keeping in mind that the Democrats and the PDRC are allies, but separate and with different ideas on how to move forward.)

 

My two cents: Having been in the middle of this for some time, I believe that Suthep has kept the moral high ground against a government that truly needs to go. There is little question about that. (Depending on who is talking.)

 

However, Abhisit makes valid points that though PDRC is very powerful and has made much progress, it is not so powerful that it will get a full knockout. Abhisit thinks that compromise and diplomacy is the way to go, while allowing the courts to come to their own conclusions.

 

Abhisit told me that he has been trying for some time to get Yingluck and Suthep into dialogue, but neither side wants it.

 

Suthep is in the right. Abhisit is in the right. Yingluck is in court today. My two cents is that Abhisit probably has the best path to avoid blood in the streets and to move forward, but then without Suthep's peaceful hammer, much of this likely would not have unfolded, and Thailand would be stuck with Thaksin.

 

Again, this is from memory. If Khun Abhisit says I made a mistake, please go with what he says, not with what I said he said.

 

It is my final thought that Abhisit has a path away from bloodshed, and that we are on a dangerous path today.

 

 

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