Democrats are a shoo-in, says Pairoj

[Coss]

Banned politician rules out Puea Thai chances

Published: 28/01/2011 at 12:00 AM

Newspaper section: News

 

Many politicians and political observers hesitate before answering who they believe will win the next general election expected in the second half of this year. Not Pairoj Suwannachawee, a core leader of the so-called 3P faction of the Puea Pandin Party.

 

"I am 100% sure that the Democrat Party will win and again become the core party in forming a coalition government," Mr Pairoj replied quickly when asked the question.

 

The only party that can match the Democrat Party is the Puea Thai Party, "but without a leader, there is no way [for Puea Thai] to win", the veteran politician said.

 

Despite being in self-exile, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra remains the de facto leader of the Puea Thai Party.

 

The official leader is little-known Yongyuth Vichaidist, who is not even a member of parliament.

 

There was speculation that former deputy prime minister Mingkwan Saengsuwan and Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, were top candidates to head the party. Ms Yingluck yesterday ruled herself out.

 

But in Mr Pairoj's view, it is too late for Puea Thai to appoint a new leader before the election.

 

And even if Puea Thai could turn things around and it won the most seats in the lower house, "it would be unable to form a coalition government because no other party would join it".

 

Asked why, Mr Pairoj said simply: "There is a main factor - the power of the gun."

 

He refused to elaborate.

 

Mr Pairoj is one of 111 former Thai Rak Thai Party executives who were banned from politics in 2007 for five years.

 

But Mr Pairoj, like many veteran politicians who share a similar fate, said he would not accept a political position after the ban expires.

 

He said he was uneasy about re-entering politics under the present circumstances, which he described as a "no-choice" democracy.

 

"I believe the Democrat Party will be the only choice to form a new coalition government after the next general election, and there will be no other choice because of the aforesaid reason [the power of the gun]."

 

Amendments to the constitution, which have passed their second reading in parliament this week, will also favour the Democrat Party.

 

"The new voting method for MPs on the party list will only benefit big parties, and I believe the Democrat Party will get the most benefit."

 

The House of Representatives is made up of 400 MPs elected from constituencies, some of which allow voters to vote for three candidates, and 80 MPs chosen from party lists.

 

The amendment before parliament calls for 375 single-MP constituencies and 125 MPs from the party lists.

 

"The nationwide single party-list constituency will benefit big parties while small parties will have less chance to win seats from the party list," Mr Pairoj said.

 

He said the Puea Pandin Party, to which the 3P group belongs, needed to be reorganised as it was now divided into factions.

 

Puea Pandin is officially an opposition party, but Narisra Chawaltanpipat, of a small faction under the leadership of Suchart Tancharoen, is a deputy education minister.

 

"We need to reorganise so we can answer the voters' questions from our standpoint," he said.

 

Once a member of the Democrat Party-led coalition, Puea Pandin was ousted after the MPs in the 3P faction voted against the government in the last no-confidence debate.

 

The faction led by Mr Suchart remained in the government because it voted in support of the censured ministers.

 

The other two MPs in the faction are Pinit Jarusombat and Preecha Laohapongchana.

 

Mr Pairoj claimed the 3P faction held about 18 seats in the House.

 

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