New Petchburi Pete Posted October 27, 2003 Report Share Posted October 27, 2003 I know this subject comes up from time to time. The U.S $ seems to hanging at the ratio of 39.9 Bt/US $. I check at: www.oanda.com I understand that the Thai Bhat is not directly linked to the U.S. $ ... would anyone care to offer their opinion as to which direction the Bhat is headed ? ... if it's going to move at all. Also, opinions as to what influences the direction of the Bhat, would be of interest to me. Thanks for any useful input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatbastard Posted October 28, 2003 Report Share Posted October 28, 2003 Pete, Not so much where is the Baht headed but how far will the the US$ plunge. Currency forecasting is not my expertise but have made some money as an amateur on exhange futures in the past. A little over a year ago the OZ dollars was around 18/19 Baht under 50 cents / USD, now around 27 Baht to OZ and 0.68 to dollar. It ws obvious then that the overshoot in value for the dollar was extremly overcooked and so I took some futures in Euro and Aust dollar, good pickings, so far. The charting analyasis I have done indicates that the good old greenback has a way to go to reach its bottom yet, and unless the financial manipulators in tHailand can stop it the Baht should rise against MOST currencies. Current resistance level is managed by the Thai's rather than normal market forces. ( havn't learned have they?) Sorry boys but yr USD needs Viagra assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 28, 2003 Report Share Posted October 28, 2003 I'm afraid you are right. A lot of people are predicting the dollar will go below 100 yen, and one analyst I was listening to predicts a 30% drop over the next year. That's the kind of range I'm hearing. I'm no expert, but hear that as US debt grows, the currency must lose value to compensate. Countries that sell lots of stuff into the US supposedly don't want a weak dollar (Japan, Thailand). So it's strange to see how Thailand resists change in either direction. They totally didn't like it when the dollar went up over 50:1, then it was mid 30's for a long time and they saw 30 as a nice landing zone and to their dismay it climbed over 40. Now they are fighting it from going down, trying to keep it up at 40. It just seems whichever direction it goes, Thailand doesn't like the move. And for what it is worth, the baht used to be fixed to the dollar at 25:1. That was in the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lopburi3 Posted October 28, 2003 Report Share Posted October 28, 2003 the baht used to be fixed to the dollar at 25:1. That was in the 90 Believe that was in fact pegged to a basket of currencies with the US dollar the prime one, rather than directly. But you are right that it held in a very close range of the 25 mark for many years. Prior to that it was at the 20 mark for a number of years, and remember it getting as high as 18 at one time. Showing my age with that one. :: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Petchburi Pete Posted October 28, 2003 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2003 Thanks for the input f.b. (and you are not fat ... I've got a few lbs. on you mate!). O.K., I think you are right ... I'll start transferring funds over tomorrow ... wish I could have done it when the U.S. $ = 44.0 Thai Bhat! ... but, Iagree, why wait until it slumps even more ? ... IMO, the result of Bush (whacked) economics ... trying to increase exports! Screw him; he' s going down just like 'daddy' did! Time for the rank and file liberals to put those conservatives in their place (the dungeon). BTW, we'll be dropping by ... of course, I'll call first ... you've got to see our son, Andrew ... now, I'm calling him 'baby Huey;' and, he's not 'pomme buoy!' ... he's just going to be be a big boy. We look forward to visiting ... maybe you can teach me how to ride one of those souped-up, high-perfomace machines ... or maybe, I should just stick to a truck ... I've still got a 'wild' streak ... still a child I admit ... after all, childhood is the best part of life, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whosyourdaddy Posted October 29, 2003 Report Share Posted October 29, 2003 The next currency floor is at 39.6 which it has bounced back from. Think it will bounce around there in the short term. In the long term I see it becoming stronger to the US and holding to the Euro, CND, Aussie. It basically depends on the Yen. Historically it has been following the japanese yen and the dollar. The Thai goverment has said that they dont want to peg it to the dollar and are trying to distance themselves from people trying to follow it. I got lucky (and a bit of skill ) that I used to get paid in US dollars but I locked in my contract for 3 years to the Thai bhat at 44.2. Which is giving me quite a raise over the boys who thought the dollar would get stronger and kept their salary in US$. But this is just my opinion. Has anyone noticed that the Bhat gets stronger on the last 4 days of most months? I think there are some traders who play the market a bit at the end of the month and drive the bhat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatbastard Posted October 29, 2003 Report Share Posted October 29, 2003 As with many low volume currencies, speculators spot an opportunity, the Thai's know there is some traders making some money by encouraging volitility and bouncing the Baht around so they are trying to maintain some control by instructing the banks to disclose large volume movements with foreign accounts. Bit of futile game really, but they have to make some threats as its obviously pissing them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 29, 2003 Report Share Posted October 29, 2003 [color:"blue"] Has anyone noticed that the Bhat gets stronger on the last 4 days of most months? I think there are some traders who play the market a bit at the end of the month and drive the bhat up. [/color] Maybe just covering their 'shorts' for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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