True odds of a plane crash?

[spirit_of_town_hall]

My China Air flight from Amsterdam to BKK was 1: 89 450 very bad.

[Guest]

Originally posted by spirit_of_town_hall:

"My China Air flight from Amsterdam to BKK was 1: 89 450 very bad."

That's the worst rate I've come across. Even Indian Airlines would get me safer from Dhaka to Delhi next month (1:155,021), and they're usually pretty scary.

Maybe change the airline?? Which board wants to lose a regular poster?

[elef]

Checking next travel to LOS:

CPH-BKK 1 in 9,070,012 (SAS)

BKK-CPH 1 in 587,451 (Thai)

elef

[Guest]

i agree with worldwalker, when it comes to airline crashes, the numbers are statisticly insignificant- if you are trying to handicap airline safety you should concentrate more on the carrier than the mileage or routes (although some airports are more dangerous than others such as ktm)-

unfortunately thai (tg)does not have a good safety record and is not in the top tier of the world's safest carriers

[ July 03, 2001: Message edited by: tanha ]

[Guest]

Quite odd to talk about airline safety, with odds of 1:100.000+ to have any problem and then spend 3 weeks in Bangkok, drink, get p*ssed, go in a taxi with any isaan taxidriver or even worse, try to walk safe from the bar you frequented to your hotel on sukhumvit.

From that regard it's best to take the safest flight back home, so when you survived the flight to Bangkok, survived Bangkok then be sure to get home.

On the other hand...

Take the safest flight down to Bangkok. If you have to go flying here, sanuking and flying back, it's better to have the whole experience just before you die. Should bring a happy smile on your corps....

[Guest]

quote:

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Originally posted by Scum_Baggio:

Go to

www.amigoingdown.com

and key in your flight route, month of the flight, as well as the airline used, and it will tell you your odds of dying in a crash.

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Basing future odds on past statistics is not very reliable when the events are very rare. Air travel is so safe it's essentially not worth thinking about, unless you're on some really shitty carrier like a domestic russian airlines route. Death rates in international airtravel are about 1 in 100 billion passenger miles, give or take based on the carrier. That's about 1:10,000,000 for a 10,000 mile trip.

Consider this: Every year about one in 6000 Americans dies in a trafic accident. If you want to worry about something worry about land travel.

(On a personal note, I think a plane crash would be a great way to go!)

[Guest]

Originally posted by think1stbkk:

"Quite odd to talk about airline safety, with odds of 1:100.000+ to have any problem and then spend 3 weeks in Bangkok, drink, get p*ssed, go in a taxi with any isaan taxidriver ..."

... and get laid without your rubber hose on, I may add. I just read somewhere that the odds of catching HIV in unprotected vaginal sex for a man is around 1:200, if the other person is infected (which sounds damn low to me).

Compared to that flying in a rubbish bin with wings and propellers is a very safe bet.

Also, the statistical chances of getting murdered in Thailand are at least 1:12000 per year, if you trust the official crime statistics.

And I agree - to go in a plane crash ain't the worst way to die.

[ July 04, 2001: Message edited by: Scum_Baggio ]

[robaus]

Saw a near miss yesterday at BKK airport. I was waiting by my gate to depart when I saw a Singapore Airlines flight taxiing out to take off position when an incoming flight tried to land on the same runway. The incomer (couldn't see which airline) suddenly full throttled, aborted landing and soared upwards.

Wondered how often it happens. Anything in Bangkok Post today?