stumpy Posted January 17, 2002 Report Share Posted January 17, 2002 From an article on Yahoo on HIV transmission rates. Here's a summary. - Performing oral sex twice as risky as receiving -Compared to oral sex, insertive vaginal sex is 10 times more risky -Compared to oral sex, insertive anal sex is 13 times more risky -Compared to oral sex, receptive vaginal sex 20 times more risky -Compared to oral sex, receptive anal sex is 100 times more risky -Condom failure rate estimated at 5% The Article [ January 17, 2002: Message edited by: Stump_Dog ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tycona Posted January 17, 2002 Report Share Posted January 17, 2002 I doubted your insertive vaginal number so went to check the article and in fact it is: insertive vaginal sex is 10x more risky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 18, 2002 Report Share Posted January 18, 2002 Here's an interesting site: hardtruth.qti.net/important.htm I'm quite surprised how "low" the general risk seems to be. [ January 17, 2002: Message edited by: Scum_Baggio ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumpy Posted January 18, 2002 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2002 Tycona, sorry you are right, typo, have corrected it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2002 Report Share Posted January 19, 2002 quote: Originally posted by Scum_Baggio: I'm quite surprised how "low" the general risk seems to be. These 'odds' can be pretty misleading since they average in so many important factors. Guys with no active STD's are probably much lower that the "0.03-0.09%" per contact stated, where as those with active STD's are probably much higher. Not to mention circumsision, menstuation, etc... 0.03-0.09% may not seem like a lot, but multiply that times a few hundred and you've got a serious risk! If the risk were higher it would be far more common among heterosexuals. [ January 19, 2002: Message edited by: worldwalker ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2002 Report Share Posted January 19, 2002 Originally posted by worldwalker: "These 'odds' can be pretty misleading ... 0.03-0.09% may not seem like a lot, but multiply that times a few hundred and you've got a serious risk!" With that do you mean a few hundred encounters, or the ratio by which an STD/menstruation etc. increases the risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tycona Posted January 19, 2002 Report Share Posted January 19, 2002 I don't know how they measure these kind of stats. Have HIV positives have sex with a HIV negatives, wait 3-6 months and do the math??? Either way, the stats would probably differ regarding the people involved and circumstances. Penis size, circumcision or not, lubrifucants etc are factors that will influuence the %. Working with a 0.05% risk of contracting HIV vaginally for men you would still only have a less than 5% chance of getting HIV after 100 encounters. Note that this are 100 encounters with a HIV positive woman! Can this be correct?? After 1386 encounters it would be 50-50.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2002 Report Share Posted January 20, 2002 Originally posted by Tycona: "I don't know how they measure these kind of stats. Have HIV positives have sex with a HIV negatives, wait 3-6 months and do the math??? ... Working with a 0.05% risk of contracting HIV vaginally for men you would still only have a less than 5% chance of getting HIV after 100 encounters." Often they monitor couples in which one partner is HIV+ and who have unprotected sex - at least that's what I read. Yeah, the above figures seem extraordinarily low. Figures which I've come across very often were in the 0.33-1% range for a man to catch the virus through one unprotected vaginal sex act. Even that seems pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2002 Report Share Posted January 20, 2002 Post deleted by DoxyBlue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 20, 2002 Report Share Posted January 20, 2002 I can see you know some statistics, Tycona: your calculations are correct. For the interested students on this board, I suggest to use the general binomial probability formula (with re-randomisation) to study the statistics of (HIV-)infections: x n-x P(x) = __n!___ . p . (1-p) ; (n-x)! x! in which P(x) is (in this case) the probability that you get infected x times as a result of having n times of contacts with an infected person with an average probability of infection per contact (transmission rate) of p. I guess Tycona used the more simple formula: n P(x>0) = 1 ? (1-p) , which can easily be derived from the one above: If I only want to know the probability of getting infected AT LEAST one time (P(x>0), I only need to use the above formula for x=0 which is the probability I won?t get infected at all, because when x=0 then 0 n-0 P(0) = __n!__ . p . (1-p) = __n!__ . 1 (n-0)! 0! n! n n n . (1-p) = 1 . 1 . (1-p) = (1-p) , which is the probability that you get infected zero times. So the probability that you get infected AT LEAST one time (P(x>0)) n is equal to 1 ? (1-p) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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