Steve Posted May 12, 2007 Report Share Posted May 12, 2007 One more other thing to consider. What is American public opinion on this? The reason why that is significant is because the primaries for each party will happen at that time and if its not supported popularily, the Republicans both running for national office and the republican leadership in congress will put a lot of pressure on Bush to stop. Things change in an election year in America. Its dicey and neither party wants do or say anything that gives the advantage to the other party. We may invade. I'll be totally shocked if we do. And we're stretched thin. Look at the problems Bush is having just to get what he already has on his plate funded. Bush couldn't go into Iraq alone (without the help of both parties) and he can't go into Iran the same as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckwoww Posted May 12, 2007 Report Share Posted May 12, 2007 I dunno Steve. Seems to me they can do what they want...who's going to side with Iran? Russia maybe I suppose. If there is any opposition it will most likely come from the Pentagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dexi Posted May 12, 2007 Report Share Posted May 12, 2007 My guess is that the US military will cooperate with the Israelis and get them to do the dirty work ie.bombing the nuclear facilities then Bush can hold up his hands and say nothing to do with us ...of course no action would be taken against Israel - it never is they are more or less cut off from international diplomacy anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChristianTroy Posted May 12, 2007 Report Share Posted May 12, 2007 Lee, look up the oil stock exchange for the middle east, where and who is planning to do it! Google it! You will leanr they won't trade the middle east Oil in US Dollars, instead they will trade in Euros which would equal with the finacial end of America! 1 Dollar would be worth about 7 euro cent! The USA of course trying to avoid that! The thing is that I understand this concern I just don't understand that they are trying to lie about the reason and blame it on their atomic program! The war will happen no matter who is president in the white house! If the Iran doesn't change their plans and keep on trading the barrel oil in USd the entire country will be nuked. trust me they won't risk another Iraq disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trooper Posted May 12, 2007 Report Share Posted May 12, 2007 Interesting...But the Americans cannot go into full blown conflict with the Iranians yet. They simply don't have the resources for that unless they quit their "missions" in Iraq and Afganistan which would mean total disaster in both countries. But it's funny to see what will be the reason for the public for war this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted May 13, 2007 Report Share Posted May 13, 2007 Okay, I'm no economist or currency trader, but the middle east needs america as much as america needs the oil. If America can not buy the same amount of oil they buy, then a) aren't they going to lose money...and i mean lots of it and who is gonna buy the oil the U.S. doesn't? Can China buy that much? Also, Iran isn't the only one with oil. There are non ME countries with loads of oil (Nigeria, Russia, Venuezula, Mexico, etc.). If America was desperate enough and the public demanded there are still loads of in and around the U.S. that is untapped, lots of it for environmental reasons. Frankly, i don't see this economic collapse scenario from a move to the euro that you do. Its not discussed here at all. If the situation was that dire, i'd imagine someone would be sounding the alarms. We're fairly misinformed here in the states on occasion but I doubt seriously if this is one of those things. I don't see Israel being to do anything other than an air strike. If so, how will that change things? The oil fields will still be in Iranian hands and your 'dollar to euro' scenario would still proceed. Israel doesn't have the military to invade and if it even thought about it, the ME would erupt. All I'm trying to do is understand the logic of your assertion happening. It may...i just can't see it happening (our invading and the change to euro crippling us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted May 14, 2007 Report Share Posted May 14, 2007 Steve, I first heard about this theory of trying to extend influence in the Middle East because of trading oil in Euros back in 2003. Granted, the articles I read back then were from far from mainstream sources; but it is interesting to see this starting to get more play. It seems like every couple of weeks if not more frequently this scenario is being mentioned. I definitely would not discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChristianTroy Posted May 14, 2007 Report Share Posted May 14, 2007 Of course it is very reasonable what you are saying but the problem is that the USD is a wacky little currency nowadays while the Euro has become the stronger and more profitable currency! I understand the concerns of the middle east to trade on the to be opened Iranian Oil Bourse with Euros instead of USD for the profit sake! I am not sure how much provocation is in that plan but from a neutral point if view everyone has to admit that relying on the USD is nowadays not a top choice! Would they loose the USA as a customer? No they wouldn't they still need to buy oil from the middle east! I am no economist myself but have bought a stock or two, from how I see it the dollar would dramatically drop if middle east oil would be traded in Euros! (Dramatically = 15%-30%) Just think about it what it would mean for the international market, americans would have to pay 30% more for imports which they need to survive and foreigners could cause extreme damage buy buying cheap from the USA and especially buying cheap company shares, all this would make the dollar drop even more! USA can`t allow that to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted May 14, 2007 Report Share Posted May 14, 2007 Its dropped enough already! The dollar/pound exchange rate has ruined my trip to see Arsenal. Its gonna cost twice as much now to travel. Same with traveling to Asia. The dollar doesn't buy as much baht as it did a few years ago. I recall some sort of 'weak dollar' theory in econ class that said it was a good thing because it would allow foreign money to buy more american goods. Good for them, but its costing me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted May 14, 2007 Report Share Posted May 14, 2007 Looks like congress is cutting the purse strings to afghanistan and iraq in one of two measures, which puts any invasion of iran in doubt: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070514/ap_on_go_co/us_iraq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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